AUDCAD Reacting Higher From Support

AUDCAD, Weekly

The pair has over the past two to three weeks been testing a support area between 0.9402 and 0.9482. This test was successful and the last week’s hammer candle now points to higher prices. Moves below the 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band were rejected by the market and we there has been no close below this band since December 2014. This suggests buying interest in this pair at levels below current price action. There is some resistance ahead though, as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (at 0.9578) coincides with the high of last week’s candle while February low at 0.9590 is not far above it.



AUDCAD, Daily

Since April 20th the pair has been making higher daily lows and AUDCAD is now approaching resistance level created by the last week’s high and descending trendline.  Stochastics is also getting close to levels it turned lower (together with price) the last time. I expect this will slow the pair down and could even cause it to correct lower. Nearest major support level is at 0.9467 while the next resistance level is at 0.9576. The 0.9636 resistance level coincides with the upper daily Bollinger Bands and has the 50 day MA hovering above. This suggests the level could very well work as a target for swing trades.



AUDCAD, 240 min

Price has moved beyond a resistance level at 0.9544 but has since hit the descending trendline. Stochastics and RSI are overbought and price is trading between the upper 1.5 and 2.0 stdv Bollinger Bands. The important support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in the daily picture. There is some support at 0.9544 but it is fairly close to a higher time frame resistance levels and therefore should be judged as a minor support.

Conclusion:

AUDCAD is still the strongest currency today against the major peers but has many resisting technical factors right above the current price. In short term picture this market is overbought as evidenced by the oscillators in 240 min chart and price trading at upper Bollinger Bands. This suggests that those wanting to trade this market on the long side should be careful right now and look to enter trades after pullbacks at support levels. Should there be  a good sized pullback to the proximity of current levels of 50 period MA in 4h chart (0.9493) we should look for buy signals as per my teaching at webinars. Obviously being the strongest of the lot AUD can keep on rising against CAD without giving us a low risk entry but buying at a resistance is a high risk strategy. If there is a possibility to buy in proximity of a decent support (eg at 0.9500) the 0.9636 could be a reasonable Target 1 for swing trades. My Target 2 is at the next daily resistance level at 0.9700.