Expected sideways for Euro

Yesterday’s Trading:

Economic data from the US on Friday was ambiguous, allowing the euro/dollar to rise to 1.1316. The New York business activity index exceeded expectations. The index for industrial production and the university of Michigan’s index were worse than expected.

The index for business activity from the federal reserve bank in New York was 9.6 for April (forecasted: 2.21, previous: 0.62).

The index for industrial production in the US for March was down 0.6% MoM against a forecasted 0.1% fall (previous: reassessed from -0.5% to -0.6%). The Michigan index for consumer confidence was 89.7 against an expected 92 and a previous 81.

Market Expectations:

Trading on Monday opened up for the dollar against commodity currencies. On Sunday in Doha negotiations regarding a freeze to oil output collapsed. The main reason for this was the lack of an Iranian representative present. The next OPEC meeting will take place in Vienna in June.

Brent fell 4.6% to $41.04. The euro/dollar opened up, but then followed the rest down and returned to 1.1275. The price is near the LB, indicating the balanced nature of the pair on the hourly and the readiness of the market to go astray. Since today is Monday – day of correctional movement – on my forecast I’ve gone for a sideways movement above the LB.

Day’s News (EET):

• 13:00, monthly Bundesbank report in Germany;

• 15:30, Canadian data on foreign securities transactions in February;

• 15:30, New York Fed’s William Dudley to speak;

• 17:00, NAHB April housing market index.

Technical Analysis:

Since the AO indicator is in the positive, I expect to see an update of the Asian minimum. If we make an upwards channel, then we see that the price should remain above 1.1267. Since today is Monday, there’s no point going deep into the technical analysis.