Hourly
Yesterday’s Trading:
Thanksgiving in the US allowed the euro some respite. Due to the thin market, the euro dollar traded between 1.0599 and 1.0626. Without the US there’s no liquidity.
Main news of the day (EET):
11:30, UK Q3 GDP data, September service sector activeness index;
12:00, Eurozone consumer confidence index, business climate, optimism in industry and economic sentiment indices for November.
15:30, Canadian PMI for October.
Market Expectations:
On Friday we’ll see stats coming out of the UK and the Eurozone. It is a half working day in the US, so traders could ignore the data. It’s unlikely that anyone will want to open new positions on a thin market before the weekend. Furthermore, the market is readying itself for the ECB meeting next week. Market participants are waiting for the ECB to further relax its monetary policy. The euro could drop to 1.0640 but without any new drivers, growth is doubtful.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday target maximum: 1.0640, minimum: 1.0590, close: 1.0609;
Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).
The euro bulls abstained from buying euros on Thursday. It’s strange since the calendar was empty. Due to a rise in the euro/pound cross, it could have easily shifted to 1.0660. The euro has been consolidating in a narrow range for 35 hours. Since the oscillator stochastic is at around 50%, on my forecast I’ve gone for a fall and then a strengthening of the euro to 1.0640. Maybe the opposite will happen: a growth at first to 1.0640 and then recoil downwards. Since the US day is short, I expect to see the closing price at 1.0609.
Daily
Nothing has changed from yesterday because it was a holiday in the US. The euro/dollar is trading in a narrow range. An external pinbar formed on 25th November. It closed with its own candle shade for 23rd and 24th November. Many traders will wait for the price to leave the 1.0565-1.0688 range. Now to the Weekly.
Weekly
No comment.
Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.