European Open Briefing


Asia Brief: Japan Industrial Production 0.4 % vs 0.2 % f/c. China New Loans CNY703bln vs CNY700bln expected. China M2 Money Stock 12.8 % vs 13.4 % f/c. Australian PM Abbott raises terror alert to high, but says attack is not imminent.

Global Markets: Nikkei up 0.10 %, Shanghai Comp gained 0.15 %, Hang Seng fell 0.30 %, ASX droped 0.60 %. US 10 year yield at 2.56. Gold at $1234 (-0.40 %), Silver at $1234 (-0.40 %), Crude Oil at $92.85 (unch).

FX Overview: USD/JPY posted fresh highs overnight as it hit the 107.38 level, the highest since September 2008. The market might be positioning itself for a disappointment from Fed Chair Yellen next week, but the overall uptrend is likely to stay intact, as the BoJ continues to be strongly dovish and the US recovery remains on track. Asia is reporting bids from importers at 107.00 and then 106.80, where bids from leveraged funds are resting as well. To the topside, offers noted ahead of the 107.50 level.

Cable rallied in the early Asian session as the latest IndyRef poll results were released. They showed that 52 % voted for No and 48 % for Yes, excluding the undecided votes. Momentum waned quickly and the pair moved to 1.6230. With a few more polls scheduled ahead of the vote on September 18th, it will likely remain volatile. Key support now lies at 1.6190, with a break beneath likely to attract fresh selling. Resistance lies at 1.6280 and there will be large selling interest ahead of the 1.6325 level, which is where Cable closed last week.

EUR/USD traded in a 1.2913-28 range overnight and flows were light. The position unwinding in the crosses is keeping the Euro supported. Bids towards 1.2880, while offers solid pre-1.2950. Stops in good size above 1.2950 and 1.2960.

AUD/USD hit the 0.9050 level earlier amid on-going supply from leveraged names and falling commodity prices. The next big support level is 0.90 and a daily close beneath would be very bearish + likely to attract further selling. Intraday resistance at 0.9080 and then 0.9110. NZD/USD bounced twice off the 0.8155 support level, but will likely continue trading with an offered tone in the next two sessions. Expect the topside to be capped at 0.82 today. Next big support at 0.8050. USD/CAD hit 1.1060 earlier. Bids reported at 1.1020/25.

Looking ahead, we have Spanish inflation data at 07:00 GMT and Italian CPI & Euro Zone Industrial Production at 09:00 GMT.

Good luck!

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