The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Base or bear triangle? Despite the failure above 1.2934 most factors still speaks in favor of a short term base, an hourly inverse head and shoulders pattern. If 1.2883 gives way to the downside the past days structure will instead be seen as a bearish triangle targeting the very important 1.2740.
USD/JPY: At the next target. The pair has now reached the upper boundary of the rising wedge formation and thus the downside reaction risk sharply increased. The pair is now by all means overbought which together with the huge short yen position makes up for a potential correction case. For today 106.64 being the key support point to watch as a close below 106.64 will create a bearish key day reversal (and kick start a downside reaction).
AUD/USD: Relentlessly offered. The bounce yesterday morning was clearly taken as a selling opportunity as the market soon continued its impulsive decline (triggered by the break of the neckline earlier in the week). We are now rapidly homing in on the target for the head and shoulders top (but certainly not for the bear trend), 0.8965. A corrective bounce (another selling opportunity) will follow before we continues down to (and beyond) the 0,8660 2014 (so far..) low point. AUD/NZD being back in the bear flag will also underpin the move.
EUR/CHF: Checking res at 1.2119-1.2123. The bold move higher earlier this week was halted at the 1.2120-23 resistance, but the (still descending) Fibo-adjusted 21day "Kijun-Sen" was broken and the market still holds above it. So with tentative support at 1.2090-84, another attempt higher looks possible. Also over a medium-term ref at 1.2133 would crank up the heat another notch.
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