Dollar strength and positive risk continues
Market Overview
Markets have been managed to hold on to the dollar strength/risk positive mood following on from the strong Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday. This mood of optimism has seen a recovery in not only the dollar but also risk appetite that has pulled equities and commodities such as oil higher, but can these moves continue with a stronger dollar? With a dearth of data yesterday there was little to derail the near term optimism, even in spite of the concerning China trade data, and that has continued into today’s trading. China has again played a part early this morning with the release of its inflation data, much of which has been taken as encouraging. The CPI remains sluggish at 1.8% (in line with expectations), but it was the PPI (producer prices index, or factory gate inflation) coming in ahead of expectations at -1.7% (-2.0% had been expected) that gives rise to optimism that there are signs of an improvement in the slowdown.
The bulls just looked to consolidate the breakout on Wall Street last night with the S&P 500 -0.1%, whilst Asian markets were mildly higher overnight, whilst the consolidation is hitting European equities with a mixed open today. In forex markets there is continued dollar strength across the forex majors. Sterling is an underperformer having breached near term support yesterday on suggestions from the Bank of England’s erstwhile chief hawk, Ian McCafferty that there may need to be an extension of easing measures. After holding on well yesterday, precious metals are mildly lower today, whilst the oil price is giving back a little of its recent gains.
Again it is a rather quiet day of economic announcements with UK Industrial Production at 0930BST (+1.6% YoY expected). This is data for June and as such will not give a true reflection of the impact of the Brexit decision and little will be taken from the data as the PMIs for July have all been so negative. Despite this, a negative number could still add to sterling’s recent weakness.
Chart of the Day – Silver
The near term outlook has been taking a turn for the worse on a breach of the support at $20.00 which re-opened a test of the $19.20 key medium term support, however could it be that the buyers look ready to be tempted back in prior to that? The buyers have been looking to build support at $19.56 and this is so far holding again today. If this can continue to hold it would be a bullish signal for the medium to longer term outlook as it would suggest that the bulls are impatient to buy and that corrective moves will not reach their implied targets (seen to be a characteristic of a bull market correction). The price opened around the low of the day yesterday and support held firm before pushing back higher again. Can this support continue with the strength of the US dollar though? The key test will now come with the hourly indicators which are now more negatively configured and are falling over again with a corrective outlook. There is now a resistance at $19.83 under the neckline of the breakdown at $20.00. There is still a near to medium term corrective look to the chart, but there are still a few signs that the bulls could be waiting in the wings and this should be watched in the coming days. A move back below $19.56 would re-open the key support around $19.20 (the equivalent of $1310 on gold).
After the three days of consecutive bear candles at the end of last week the euro is now consolidating the decline. The long term pivot line at $1.1050 which has so often proved to be a turning point, is once again providing the basis of a floor. This has resulted in the formation of the smallest daily range on the euro for several months. There is little of any real note to take away from yesterday’s trading, only that it reflects a pensive market. This pensive outlook continued into Asian trading today. The daily momentum indicators suggest there is a mild bearish bias as the Stochastics are falling, but the RSI and MACD lines are more neutrally configured now. The hourly chart reflects this mild bearish bias and so I prefer moves to test the recent low at $1.1043, whilst a close below $1.1050 would then re-open $1.0950 which is key near term support. There is near term resistance around $1.1100/$1.1120 with the pre-Non-farm Payrolls high at $1.1162 now key.
The bearish traction is now back with the sellers once more as the support at $1.3060 has been cleared. This comes yesterday on a day that after an early morning of consideration, much of the day was spent trading below $1.3060 with a close well below too. This has been added to by an early breach of the $1.3000 psychological level this morning. This all adds up to the increasing likelihood of a retest of the 31 year low at $1.2796 now. The momentum indicators are also confirming the move with the Stochastics in bearish configuration and the RSI dropping back under 30, whilst the MACD lines are also in the process of crossing bearishly. Rallies will now be seen as a chance to sell, with the hourly chart showing an 80 pip band of resistance now between $1.3020/$1.3100. The hourly momentum on RSI and MACD has become increasingly corrective over the past few days whilst the falling 21 hour moving average (c. $1.3025) has also become a basis of resistance.
USD/JPY
Can the dollar rally/risk rally maintain its current momentum to pull Dollar/Yen higher? The first real test for this rally is now being seen, with the resistance around 102.80. This is a key reaction high during the recent sell-off and will be considered to be a near term barometer. Yesterday’s bullish candle got close to a test (with a high at 102.65) but has just started to shy away. This comes with the RSI drifting in an unwinding move back into the mid-40s, whilst the Stochastics are also drifting higher and could now be theoretically close to a confirmed buy signal. That would suggest that 102.80 is a near term crossroads. A break above the resistance would then re-open the key resistance of the neckline for the top formed below 104.00. I still see rallies as a chance to sell on Dollar/Yen but this current rally may be about to drive a positive break. The hourly chart shows a band of immediate support 101.70/102.25 and a breach would re-open the downside back towards the lows at 100.85 and then 100.65.
Gold
Yesterday was very much a day of consolidation on gold. The sharp selling pressure in the wake of Friday’s payrolls report has stalled and a $9 daily range (very tight trading) with a doji candle shows that there is an uncertainty of the direction. The momentum has a near term corrective bias with the Stochastics falling but the RSI and MACD lines are still rather muted in their corrective move. The hourly chart also reflects this now with the corrective configuration on momentum but the market is still holding above the support around $1330. There is also an old pivot level around $1325 which will also help to be supportive. If these two levels are decisively breached then the corrective looks set to continue back towards the key near term lows around $1310 which protect the $1306 medium to longer term breakout. Yesterday’s high at $1338 is minor resistance but the $1346 pivot is the key resistance.
WTI Oil
After finding resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the bull run from $26.05/$51.67 around $41.90 for a couple of days, the shackles were broken once more for a continuation of a risk rally that is helping to drive oil back higher again. If oil was at a crossroads ahead of this week, the bulls have successfully negotiated through the crossroads and the outlook is improving on the road to a recovery. The traction finally seems to be coming in a recovery with the Stochastics buy signal, the RSI rising strongly and even the MACD lines ready to bull cross. The move is also back through the barrier of the old downtrend channel. However it is on the hourly chart that the real technical progress is shown, with the bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern that completed above $42.10 yesterday. The implied upside target for the recovery is $45.00. The next resistance to be tested is in the range $43.40/$43.70, a level that has already been looked at, whilst the neckline resistance at $42.10 should now become the basis of support for any corrections near term. The recovery would above below $41.05 support.
Author
Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
