EUR/USD 4H chart 2/14/2013 7:43AM EST


False Breakout: After a break above a falling channel resistance, EUR/USD failed to push above 1.35, and fell to new lows during the 2/14 European session, starting the 2/14 US session with pressure on the 1.33 handle. The 4H RSI shows maintenance of the newly established bearish momentum as the reading held below 60 after it kissed 30, and is about to kiss 30 again.

Room to fall: There is some room to fall if the EUR/USD can clear below 1.33 during the 2/14 US session. First there is a support area from mid-January’s consolidation around 1.3255. Looking at the daily chart, it looks like the EUR/USD will test a rising trendline from November slightly above that 1.3255 support area. Also note a rising trendline that goes back to the origin of the current bullish trend, to July 2012. A break below this trendline can signal even further bearish outlook. For now, there is still room to fall until 1.3255, or the rising trendline from July, and still be within the context of an overall trend in the daily chart.

At this point, a push above 1.35 might be needed to neutralize the bearish outlook.

EUR/USD Daily chart 2/14/2013 7:47M EST