EURUSD: Quietly awaits today's the data dump

RBNZ hiking rates to 3.5% kicked off the Asia session, but not in a way Kiwi bulls had hoped for
Japan exports fall 2% y/y in June
China PMI at an 18-month high to show stimulus is taking effect
IMF cut US growth expectations to 1.7%
Singapore economy on track to grow 2-4% this year

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Plenty of data to keep traders occupied today with HSBC Flash PMI's accounting for the majority. Being the 'flash' (initial estimate) this tends to have the most impact.

If you start with basic trend analysis and assess EURUSD, then poor PMI data for Eurozone and good PMI data from USD should put another nail in the coffin for Euro bulls and create new lows. Conversely if we see above-expected numbers from Europe you could consider fading at resistance levels and wait for US data to come out (for example), crossing your fingers for good US data.
GBP Retail Sales m/m (not pictured) is expected to edge higher to +0.2% from last month's -0.5%. However the y/y number may grab more attention. Currently expected to maintain 3.9% then 4% or above should be GBPUSD bullish and below 3.8% GBP bearish.
US Employment data presents us with initial jobless claims at 308k this week. Whilst not considered a major market over it is assessed by traders alongside the monthly NFP numbers to provide a broader view of the overall employment market. However if we see significant numbers above consensus expect this to be USD bullish following Yellen's recent comments regarding interest rates being moved higher if the jobs markets continue to impress.
US New Home Sales saw an impressive increase of 18.6% last month; Whilst it is jot expected to maintain this rate of acceleration, falling short of 18.6% isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as it remains above 0% (as this is an increased rate above a previously high rate of change)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

EURUSD: Quietly awaits today's the data dump

Price is consolidating awaiting tonight's plethora of data and due to the overlapping nature of the recent candles I suspect we may see a pop higher before the bearish trend continues.

That said is PMI data is consistently poor between Eurozone and Germany then we can expect losses to be more direct.

â€‹Either way if you are considering long positions keep in mind the trend is clearly down (so don't outstay your welcome and seek 100 pips moves) and keep in mind the resistance levels which are likely to entice bearish swing traders all the way up to 1.350.

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