Australian Dollar:
Following a tumultuous overnight session the Australian dollar settled considerably intraday yesterday trading sideways ahead of US and European entry. Despite its slow start the release of advanced US GDP which surpassed expectation spurred demand for the Australian dollar given signs of underlying weakness across household expenditure. Reaching highs of 0.8838 when valued against its US Counterpart there has been signs of solid support around the 0.8750 mark following Wednesday evenings aggressive selloff. With the two major risk events from the United States now behind us trading ranges should solidify ahead of a heightened domestic focus in anticipation of PPI numbers today as well as Chinese PMI numbers over the course of the weekend. Opening stronger this morning the Australian dollar currently buys 88.28 US Cents.
- We expect a range today of 0.8780 – 0.8860
New Zealand Dollar:
Despite signs of a flattening domestic yield curve following hints by the RBNZ that future interest rate increases will be forthcoming at a slower pace the New Zealand dollar has benefitted from a Greenback overnight which struggled to appreciate following a positive GDP print. Suggesting that investors are already sitting on net long USD positions, there has been a general reluctance to push it even higher over the past 24 hours. Rallying from an earlier low of 0.7764 the New Zealand dollar opens stronger this morning as it currently buys 78.40 US Cents. In what’s been a week dominated by Central Bank rhetoric the focus should shift to the underlying fundamentals over the coming days.
- We expect a range today of 0.7800 – 0.7880
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound remains poised to notch up its fourth consecutive monthly loss when valued against its US Counterpart as traders continue to speculate the Bank of England will trail behind the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. Having been weighed down by a notably stronger Greenback, the Sterling has dipped to a 24 hour low of 1.5949 when valued against its US Counterpart opening this morning in a familiar however lower position of 1.5998. With a handful of important growth indicators scheduled for release from broader Europe tonight the 1.60 level remains critical for the Sterling. Lower across the board the Sterling is weaker against both the Aussie (1.8119) and Kiwi (2.0400).
- We expect a range today of 1.8080 -1.8160
Majors:
Suggesting that the US economy may be strong enough to absorb higher interest rates US Stocks gained ground overnight after the world’s largest economy expanded by 3.5 percent during the third quarter of this year. Whilst the underlying figures did reveal a strong portion of that growth was linked to an increase in government spending a separate report painted an even prettier picture after fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any other time. Despite the positive reads the US dollars performance has been mixed overnight, whilst weaker against the majority of G10 currencies the Greenback is stronger this morning against both the Euro (1.2607) and the Yen (109.222). In European developments figures showed consumer prices in Germany unexpectedly slowed heightening concerns that weakness from peripheral Europe has finally reached the core. With the dust having settled on broader US dollar moves, macro softness across the 18-nation bloc threatens to further weigh on the currency both in the short and medium term.
Data releases
- AUD: PPI q/q
- NZD: Building Consents m/m
- JPY: Household Spending y/y, Tokyo CPI y/y
- GBP: No data today
- EUR: German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate
- USD: Core PCE Index m/m, Employment Index q/q, Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.