Euro supported by Draghi Comments

Today's Highlights

• Sterling levels off on inflation fall

• Euro supported by Draghi Comments

• Australian Dollar boosted by RBA

• US Durable goods may disappoint

FX Market Overview

Loads of UK parents will get to experience the raw power, the existential beauty and exquisite intricacy of daytime TV today because a large number of teachers are on strike. If you want to get the full, immersive experience, I urge you to watch daytime TV in track suit bottoms and a dirty vest; you'll almost feel like you are in the studio with Jeremy Kyle. Oh and if anyone can determine exactly what Waybuloo is all about, I would love to hear your thoughts. Veeeery trippy.

At least when you emerge, you'll discover retail prices haven't risen too much. In February, UK inflation dropped to the lowest level in 4 years. At 1.7%, it takes the pressure off the Bank of England and the threat of early interest rises starts to recede. The Pound did the opposite of what you might suspect and it strengthened through later trade. The fact that the Pound had been sold off in the previous few days gave it room to recover. Sterling would undoubtedly have strengthened even more if Producer prices hadn't remained stagnant on the month. Traders were clearly nervous ahead of today's release of the final figure for Q4 economic growth. At 0.7% on the quarter, the figure was unchanged from the previous estimate but business investment was up 8.5% on the year; a massive vote of confidence in the future of the UK economy. Sterling has scope to strengthen.

The Euro was supported by comments from the head of the European Central Bank which offered a confident view that the measures the ECB has taken will develop into recovery and growth. This morning's GFK consumer confidence index for Germany stayed level at 8.5 which is above zero, so shows optimism but it is only marginal and that doesn't help the Euro. Other than Italian retail sales, the data diary for Europe is a bit like Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard - bare. However, the way Mr Draghi steered away from further interest rate cuts in the Eurozone has provided some support for the Euro.

The US diary is a little more windswept and interesting; durable goods data, the service sector purchasing managers Index and later this evening we get the results of the stress test carried out on US banks. All will be influential but I would look to the durable goods for the greatest cue. That data is expected to show a slight rise in demand and the USD will be vulnerable to any undershoot of expectations. If you are a US Dollar buyer, your opportunities may come after 12.30 GMT.

Overnight last night we had a speech from the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia and he was cautious but positive at the same time. Central Bankers have a language all of their own; “The long-running equilibrium of the exchange rate is probably lower and we have been quite consistent in saying that,” means they expect the Australian dollar to weaken - I think. But the Australian Dollar strengthened overnight on the back of Glenn Stevens' cautious optimism.

That's about it for today apart from a story from America. It doesn't happen to this degree in the UK but in the States, boy scouts and girl scouts sell cookies - a lot of cookies - to raise funds. But don't confuse this with a little village fair kind of thing; no this is serious stuff. Just ask Katie Francis, a 12 year old Girl Scout from Oklahoma (where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain). She has sold 18,107 boxes of cookies in just a few weeks and is targeting 20,000 boxes. That isn't a little fund raiser, that's an industry. The side line to this story though is the ingenuity of some of the cookie sellers. One set up outside a medical marijuana dispensary and sold 117 boxes in 2 hours. Now that is a marketing genius at work.