United States Dollar:
The pound’s recovery has continued over the past 24 hours, as another opinion poll put the ‘No’ campaign (against independence) ahead in the lead up to next Thursdays Scottish independence referendum. The latest YouGov poll conducted for The Sunday Times and The Sun had the ‘No’ vote at 52% compared with 48% for ‘Yes’. GBP/USD currently trades at 1.6260 having recovered from a low of 1.6058 on Wednesday. US Unemployment Claims printed marginally worse than expected yesterday at 315k for last week. Later today, we have Retail Sales data from the States as well as University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. The greenback continues to be in favour, especially against the commodity currencies, as the run of good data in the States brings forward the date investors expect an interest rate rise to occur. We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6185 to 1.6320.
Euro:
With little data of note this week from the eurozone, the shared currency has traded in a relatively tight range throughout the week against the dollar. EUR/USD currently trades at 1.2925. Mario Draghi spoke in Milan last night, where he urged governments in the eurozone to do more to promote growth but gave little away about possible future stimulus measures. GBP/EUR currently trades at 1.2570 having recovered most of the lost ground it lost earlier in the week. We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.25 to 1.2620.
Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:
The Aussie continues to be sold off as investors continue to invest in USD, on the back of improving economic conditions in the States. AUD/USD had traded close to .94 at the end of last week however now sits at .9053 despite this week’s better than expected employment data. NZD/USD has mirrored the Aussies fall, having dropped from .8340 a week ago to currently sit at .8179. Dovish comments from the RBNZ earlier in the week haven’t helped its cause either. GBP/AUD has jumped dramatically this week; threatening to break below 1.72 on Monday it now trades at 1.7945. GBP/NZD trades at 1.9870. We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7850 to 1.80. We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9750 to 1.9930.
Data releases for the next 24 hours:
AUD: No data
EUR: Industrial Production m/m
GBP: No data
NZD: No data
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m; Retail sales m/m; Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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