The first thing to say is that the Brent price is really around $99, the price above not reflective of realité. The two dollar turnaround was mainly started by the Opec Secretary General who gave an interview after a meeting with the Russian Oil Minister yesterday. Whilst saying that the current low price of oil was temporary he also suggested that at the next Opec meeting quotas may have to come down from the current level of 30m b/d to around 29.5m b/d. The trouble is that whilst all member of Opec want higher prices few are prepared to cut their own production and even if they do agree to pare back they usually cheat. I mean, current quotas are being exceeded by at least 500/- b/d before Saudi Aramco cut back recently. At least it shows that Opec are at least looking at the supply and demand numbers for next year.
The API inventory stats had the analysts in a right pickle, having forecasted a draw of 1.5m barrels, stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.3m barrels. I will hold judgement until the EIA numbers tonight to look at both crude and products as September can throw up some funnies across the board.
The statements from the Fed tonight will be interesting, markets are expecting further cuts in QE and to see if Janet Yellen will give a steer on interest rates, for oil watchers we need to see if the modest pick-up in the economy is coming through.
The API inventory stats had the analysts in a right pickle, having forecasted a draw of 1.5m barrels, stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.3m barrels. I will hold judgement until the EIA numbers tonight to look at both crude and products as September can throw up some funnies across the board.
The statements from the Fed tonight will be interesting, markets are expecting further cuts in QE and to see if Janet Yellen will give a steer on interest rates, for oil watchers we need to see if the modest pick-up in the economy is coming through.
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