KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
The CEE currencies ended the last week relatively unchanged, shrugging off the geopolitical tensions in Israel, Iraq as well as in Ukraine. Not even the possibility of extension of sanction against Russia weighed on the region.
While the regional calendar is thin in the first half of this week, it is quite wellfilled in the second one. On Thursday, the CNB will conclude its rate-setting meeting. We believe that a new inflation forecast is likely to postpone the exit from the intervention regime, which has already been signalled by several board members. It should therefore not come as a great surprise. All in all, the new forecast should be closer to the market view as well as to our expectations of a later departure from the exchange rate regime and even later commencement of monetary tightening (using conventional measures). Markets will also watch releases of PMIs in the Czech Republic, Poland as well as in Hungary scheduled for Friday.
As for global factors - this week represented mainly by releases of U.S. macroeconomic statistics - they might play rather in favour of the US dollar and consequently might weigh on emerging markets, including the CEE region. Recent experience however suggests that the negative impact should be rather small.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD alternates gains with losses near 1.0720 post-US PCE
The bullish tone in the Greenback motivates EUR/USD to maintain its daily range in the low 1.070s in the wake of firmer-than-estimated US inflation data measured by the PCE.
GBP/USD clings to gains just above 1.2500 on US PCE
GBP/USD keeps its uptrend unchanged and navigates the area beyond 1.2500 the figure amidst slight gains in the US Dollar following the release of US inflation tracked by the PCE.
Gold keeps its daily gains near $2,350 following US inflation
Gold prices maintain their constructive bias around $2,350 after US inflation data gauged by the PCE surpassed consensus in March and US yields trade with slight losses following recent peaks.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.