BOJ raises economic assessment on industrial output

Asian Mid-session Update: BOJ raises economic assessment on industrial output, exports, and housing investment

Economic Data

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.3 V 41.7 PRIOR (1st decline in 4 months, 3-month low); ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 30.4 V 31.5 PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.3% V 1.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 5.2% V 6.8% PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV NET MIGRATION: 5.0K V 5.3K PRIOR

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ JOB ADS M/M: -0.1% V -0.3% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline)

- (UK) DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -4 V -1E (9-month low)

- (US) NORTH AMERICA NOV SEMI BOOK/BILL RATIO: 1.02 V 0.93 PRIOR (first time above parity in 3 months)

Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)

- Nikkei225 +1.7%, S&P/ASX +2.2%, Kospi +1.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Mar S&P500 flat at 2,059

Commodities/Fixed Income

- Feb gold +0.2% at $1,197, Jan crude oil +0.6% at $54.42/brl, Copper +0.3% at $2.87/lb

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1205 v 6.1195 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Dec 9th)

- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Dec 17th: $4.50T v $4.49T prior; M1 y/y change: 9.6% v 9.7% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.8% v 5.9% w/w

Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX

- Broad-based risk-on rally that gave US stocks their biggest two-day gain of the year continued to reverberate in Asia. The recently oversold high-beta commodity sector of Australia has helped to pull the ASX200 by over 2%, with sharp gains in energy and metals. USD/JPY hit a fresh 1-week high of 119.40, helping Nikkei225 build on its gains. In China, Shanghai Composite was down in the morning session, but entered the final hour of trade with a new 4-year high above 3,100.

- Bank of Japan rate was the key risk event of the session. Despite the recent disappointment in GDP figures, the BOJ actually raised its assessment on Industrial Output, Exports, and Housing Investment. Policy settings remained unchanged otherwise, and board member Kiuchi was still the lone dissenter, favoring policy stance before Oct 31st easing. BOJ reiterated economy continued to recover moderately as a trend, but also added the "decline in demand following front-loaded increase before tax hike is waning as a whole." BOJ also said exports have shown signs of picking up and housing investment/industrial output are bottoming out. On inflation, the BOJ reiterated CPI expectations for the near term remain around 1%. Earlier, Fin Min Aso also noted Japan economy is continuing gradual recovery. Separately, a Nikkei report speculated the govt's fiscal stimulus is seen around ¥3.5, above ¥2-3T estimated initially. Cabinet is expected to approve the stimulus package as early as Dec 27th, with the Govt not expected to undertake any new debt issuance to fund the package.

- In China, the Stats Bureau revised up its 2013 GDP target by 3.4%, in line with earlier speculation, to reflect the latest census data. Chinese Yuan also remained under pressure against the surging greenback, with offshore Yuan extending losses through 6.2250 level

- the weakest CNY levels since late June.

Equities

US markets:

- RHT: Reports Q3 $0.42 v $0.40e, R$456M v $451Me; +11.2% afterhours

- CTAS: Reports Q2 $0.86 adj v $0.78e, R$1.12B v $1.12Be; +7.3% afterhours

- XRX: To sell information technology outsourcing business to Atos for $1.05B; Cuts FY14, FY15 guidance as a result of the pending sale of the ITO business; +3.7% afterhours

- NQ: Reports Q3 -$0.19 v -$0.04 y/y, R$81.2M v $54.2M y/y; +2.2% afterhours

- GE: Selected by Cheniere for $1B Service Agreement for Sabine Pass LNG Export Terminal; +0.1% afterhours

- NKE: Reports Q2 $0.74 v $0.70e, R$7.4B v $7.16Be; -2.9% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Skymark Airlines 9204.JP -4.5% (considers ending some domestic flights); Nomura Research Institute 4307.JP +2.9% (press speculation on 9-month results); Sydney Airport SYD.AU +3.8% (Nov Op result)

- Financials: Financial Street Holdings 000402.CN +3.7% (Anbang Insurance discloses 20% stake)

- Industrials: BYD Corp 1211.HK +18.6% (issues update: business under normal Op); China Railway Erju 600528.CN +10.0% (awarded contract; Nov Op result); Shanghai Construction 600170.CN +4.4% (awarded contract); Incitec Pivot IPL.AU +3.3% (executives comments in AGM); Downer EDI DOW.AU +5.2% (awarded major contract)

- Technology: FujiFilm Holdings Corp 4901.JP +3.2% (working on health care business); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +4.2% (may raise dividend)