http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-02-10.htmlU.S. Review The Moderate Economic Recovery is Still Underway Consumer credit surged by $19.3 billion in December, the second consecutive solid monthly increase reflecting growth in credit cards, student loans and car loans. Weekly first-time jobless claims fell by 15k to 358k and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the number of job openings in December rose 2.5 percent. Data on international trade show the nominal U.S. trade deficit widened 3.7 percent to $48.8 billion inFri, 10 Feb 2012 19:23:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-02-03.htmlU.S. Review: Off to a Good Start for the Year The employment report for January showed that 243,000 jobs were added with the unemployment rate declining slightly to 8.3 percent. The details of the report however, suggest that unseasonably warm weather may be playing a role in the stronger job gains. The ISM-Manufacturing Index posted a marginal improvement in January as new orders jumped for the month. Export orders also posted a nice increase suggesting that the effects of a Eurozone slowdownFri, 03 Feb 2012 20:08:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-02-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-30.htmlU.S. Review Less Strength Than Meets The Eye Real GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate during the fourth quarter, but the underlying data show the economy has less momentum going into 2012. Durable goods orders and shipments rebounded solidly in December, casting some doubt on the earlier weak readings and bringing the data more closely in line with anecdotal reports and regional manufacturing surveys. Expectations for a housing rebound may have gotten a little ahead of themselves. NewMon, 30 Jan 2012 05:24:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-20.htmlU.S. Review Good News on Manufacturing, Inflation and Housing The manufacturing sector remains on solid footing. Manufacturing output rose more than expected in December. Furthermore, the New York Fed manufacturing index showed the sector gained strength in January and the outlook improved further. Headline inflation continues to moderate. Producer and consumer prices both declined in December on falling food and energy prices. However, the recent rise in core inflation could tie the Fed’sFri, 20 Jan 2012 20:12:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-16.htmlU.S. Review Week Two Brings a Little Less Enthusiasm Some of the optimism about housing, consumer spending and the broader economy eased back a bit this week, amid a smattering of softer economic reports. Retail sales rose just 0.1 percent in December and core retail sales fell by the same amount. Holiday sales came in right in line with our expectations, rising 5.1 percent. Weekly first-time jobless claims spiked up to 399,000 and job openings listed in the JOLTs survey fell slightly. Data onMon, 16 Jan 2012 06:17:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-06.htmlU.S. Review Great Car, Just Be Sure to Look Under the Hood Total nonfarm payrolls jumped 200,000 in December and the unemployment rate dropped to a cycle-low 8.5 percent. Coming on the heels of several weeks of improvement in unemployment insurance claims and improving business sentiment, this seems to put an exclamation point on recent firming in the labor market. To be sure, the job market is healing but we suspect the jump in December may overstate the extent of this improvement. In thisFri, 06 Jan 2012 20:04:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2012-01-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-23.htmlU.S. Review The Story of Moderate Growth Continues To Unfold Personal income figures for November indicated that personal income rose a meager 0.1 percent. Personal spending rose slightly for the month supported in part by consumers choosing to save less. Housing starts came in better than expected in November as unusually warm weather and possible seasonal adjustment factors helped to boost the headline number. The final estimate of third quarter GDP indicated that the economy grew at a 1.8Fri, 23 Dec 2011 19:22:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-16.htmlU.S. Review Mixed Bag of Chips, but Reports Still Suggest Recovery Retail sales posted a disappointing increase of 0.2 percent in November, but categories typically associated with the holiday season saw solid gains. We believe the holiday sales projections will remain on track. Industrial production delivered an unexpected decline in November with the pullback concentrated in the manufacturing sector. However, regional surveys for December suggest further positive momentum. RegardingFri, 16 Dec 2011 21:29:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-12.htmlU.S. Review Good From Far, but Far From Good A run of better-than-expected U.S. economic data in recent weeks raises hopes that the domestic economy might somehow defy gravity and expand quickly, even as the rest of the world seems to be coming to terms with an environment of slower growth. At the risk of ruining the party, in this week’s U.S. Review, we point out what we consider to be a few chinks in the armor. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index shows continued expansion, albeit at a slowerMon, 12 Dec 2011 05:44:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-02.v02.htmlU.S. Review Moderate Improvement in Economic Data The November employment report showed a big drop in the unemployment rate. However, the overall pace of job growth remains constrained. Housing market data this week indicated that new home sales rose modestly in October, while home prices continued their downward trajectory. The latest read on manufacturing sentiment from the ISM-manufacturing survey indicated that output continued to expand at a moderate pace despite the ongoing European debtFri, 02 Dec 2011 20:56:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-12-02.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-24.htmlThu, 24 Nov 2011 05:58:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-18.htmlU.S. Review Some Economic News to Be Thankful For Economic growth in the fourth quarter appears to be off to a good start. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent in October with nearly broad-based gains. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, food, gasoline and building materials, rose 0.6 percent and are up 5.7 percent on a three-month annualized basis. Inflation data provided a glimmer of hope for the economy with consumer and producer prices both pulling back. We expect prices to decelerate furtherFri, 18 Nov 2011 21:26:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-10.htmlU.S. Review Economic Data Continue to Point to Moderate Growth The trade balance narrowed again in the month of September to -$43.1 billion from -$44.9 billion in August. Exports helped to narrow the deficit, increasing 1.4 percent for the month. Small business optimism remained very depressed in October as NFIB survey respondents continued to be disappointed with the pace of sales growth. Initial jobless claims continued to trend down last week, falling by 10,000 to 390,000, indicating aThu, 10 Nov 2011 21:37:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-04.htmlU.S. Review Slow But Steady Progress Nonfarm employment rose by 80,000 jobs in October and data for the previous two months were revised up. The unemployment rate fell to 9.0 percent. October’s ISM surveys remained consistent with modest economic growth. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys ticked down marginally in October, but remain slightly above the key 50.0 break-even level. Motor vehicle sales turned in another solid performance in October, running at a 13.2 million unitFri, 04 Nov 2011 20:34:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-17.htmlU.S. Review Neither Doom nor Boom: Moderate Growth Is the Story The triumph of thoughtful analysis over hype continues. This week’s data on leading indicators, jobless claims, housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed survey suggest moderate growth ahead. Yes, problems do remain—existing home sales—and other problems persistent beyond the expectations (promises?) of policymakers—inflation and high unemployment. On balance, the outlook remains for moderate economic growth with the accompanyingMon, 17 Oct 2011 08:12:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-14.htmlU.S. Review Modest Recovery Is Still Under Way Retail sales in September delivered an upside surprise, rising in nearly every major category. The stronger-than-expected increase was led by motor vehicle purchases and solid back-to-school sales. Another sign the economy continued to gain some momentum was the recently released data on the trade balance. Based on our calculations, trade could make a modest contribution to real GDP in the third quarter. Initial jobless claims fell to 404,000, butFri, 14 Oct 2011 18:38:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-07.htmlU.S. Review Still Growing, but the Expansion Is Still at Risk The U.S. economy created 103,000 net new jobs in September with the private sector creating 137,000 net jobs, a pretty decent indication that modest economic growth continued in the United States in September. While still in the plus column and somewhat better than August’s job reading, the labor market has clearly downshifted from the first quarter, putting the sustainability of the economic expansion at risk. The ISM manufacturingFri, 07 Oct 2011 19:53:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-30.htmlU.S. Review Still a Mixed Picture Most of this week’s economic reports that dealt with the consumer continued to flash warning signals. Consumer confidence remains weak, income growth is lagging and home sales remain dead in the water. Reports from the factory sector were decidedly more upbeat with orders for nondefense capital goods rising solidly, Boeing shipping its first 787 Dreamliner to Japan and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rising 3.9 points to a solid 60.4 in September. WeeklyFri, 30 Sep 2011 19:03:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-23.htmlU.S. Review Shake It Up, Benny, Now Having already committed to maintaining a low Fed funds rate, policymakers are considering other options and trying out different dance steps to spur recovery. Will a reallocation of the Fed’s holdings of Treasuries and more purchases of MBS spur recovery? Virulent selling on Wall Street seemed to have been sparked by concerns beyond slow growth in the U.S. economy. Domestic data, while somewhat underwhelming, was not too bad. A slip in housing starts wasFri, 23 Sep 2011 19:37:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-16.htmlU.S. Review Retail Sales Flat, Manufacturing Back? Retail sales posted a disappointing flat reading for the month of August, with weaker-than-expected sales figures for several categories, including clothing and autos. Inflation measures continue to point to somewhat higher prices, with core measures rising for both the consumer and producer price indices. In light of this week’s information, we believe that GDP growth is tracking at around a 1.8 percent annual pace for the third quarter.Fri, 16 Sep 2011 18:33:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-09.htmlU.S. Review The Economy Still Faces Core Issues While it was a fairly light week for economic data, speeches by President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dominated headlines. The president outlined a plan that calls for payroll tax cuts and spending initiatives. Although the proposal could boost growth somewhat, we do not believe it fully addresses the core issues of weak consumer demand and structural unemployment. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech offered no new surprises, whichFri, 09 Sep 2011 19:59:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-06.htmlSentiment among purchasing managers at the nation’s service companies picked up modestly in August, suggesting that, despite other bad news, the economic recovery is not completely stalling . This Should Alleviate Recession Fears, but Not All Good News The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 53.3 in August, from a reading of 52.7 in July. The number was much better than the consensus had expected. After a string of regional purchasing managers’ indexesTue, 06 Sep 2011 15:48:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-02.htmlU.S. Review Recession Fears Rise Again Today, markets received a gut-wrenching August payroll report, ratcheting up recession fears again. There were zero net nonfarm payroll jobs created in August with 58,000 fewer net jobs created during July and June. More troubling for people who still have jobs, average hourly earnings and weekly hours both contracted. Yet, the week started on a bright note, personal spending for July surprised on the upside, suggesting that economic growth was motoringFri, 02 Sep 2011 18:48:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-09-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-26.htmlU.S. Review The Economy Continues to Grow at a Snail’s Pace Much of the economic data released during the week continued to show sluggish economic growth. Real GDP was revised down to a 1.0 percent pace in the second quarter from the initially reported 1.3 percent rate. While growth has slowed significantly, it is growth nonetheless. Durable goods orders rose a more-than-expected 4.0 percent in July, which was double the consensus. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.5 percentFri, 26 Aug 2011 19:02:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-19.htmlU.S. Review The Economy Continues to Lose Momentum  In July, industrial production rose a solid 0.9 percent, but reports from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks showed activity falling off in early August. Home sales and new home construction also appear to be losing momentum. Sales of existing homes fell 3.5 percent in July, while housing starts fell 1.5 percent. Mortgage applications for home purchases also declined, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. Fri, 19 Aug 2011 15:16:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-12.htmlU.S. Review Despite Volatile Markets, Recession Risks Are Fading In what was one of the most volatile weeks on Wall Street since traders and speculators first gathered under the old buttonwood tree, economic data actually showed improvements in the economy that diminish the odds of recession. Despite a widening in the trade deficit that will weigh on Q2 growth, economic indicators were upbeat. Initial jobless claims finally broke through the key 400,00 level—a good sign for jobs. Retail salesFri, 12 Aug 2011 19:11:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-08.htmlU.S. Review Zoo Wee Mama!: Employment Surprises to the Upside Employment posted a better-than-consensus gain of 117,000 in July with net upward revisions to previous months’ data. While the report is promising, we are not out of the woods yet. The government sector continues to shed jobs and the decline in the unemployment rate was largely due to a drop in the labor force participation rate. While the equity market sell-off is disconcerting, stocks have a history of sending false signals. InMon, 08 Aug 2011 06:57:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-01.htmlU.S. Review  Subpar Economic Growth Defines the Second Quarter The economy grew at a sluggish 1.3 percent in the second quarter after growing a mere 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Stagnation in personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter suggests that higher prices played a role in restraining consumer spending.  Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in July as the number of people expecting conditions to improve six months from now climbed on the month.  Data onMon, 01 Aug 2011 08:55:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-08-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-22.htmlU.S. Review Economic Data Mixed, but Debt Deal Seems Viable Economic data released this week came in with largely mixed results and continue to point to an economy that is emerging from a soft patch but with slow momentum. The Leading Economic Index rose 0.3 percent in June with 5 of 10 components posting gains and the largest contributions coming from financial indicators. Market watchers remained focused on debt ceiling negotiations. Our baseline expectation is that Congress will likelyFri, 22 Jul 2011 17:53:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-16.htmlU.S. Review Mixed Economic Data Points to Moderate Growth Retail sales came in slightly higher than expected in June as higher sales at automobile dealers offset reduced spending at gasoline stations. With household budgets stretched thin, discretionary spending in most major categories remained weak. Inflation measures over the past week indicated that the pace of inflation is slowing; however, core inflation measures are still picking up. The trade deficit widened in May as crude oil importsSat, 16 Jul 2011 15:11:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-08.htmlU.S. Review Weak Jobs, a One-off or a Trend? This week’s employment report is a challenge to our view that the economy is leaving the spring slowdown behind and moving into a period of trend-like growth of 3 percent with moderate job growth as well. Yet, the longer-term problems of a generation of overpromising and underfunding challenges both public and private decision makers. Federal and state policymakers have consistently failed to adequately fund entitlement spending. Meanwhile,Fri, 08 Jul 2011 19:13:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-01.htmlU.S. Review Second Quarter Ends Poorly – Better Times Ahead Weaker-than-expected consumer spending and incomegrowth for May are causing many economists to further scale back their consumer spending and GDP growth forecasts for the second quarter. Expectations for a second-half growth rebound remain intact, however, although the evidence to date remains scant. U.S. manufacturing gains remained modest in June if the ISM manufacturing and regional manufacturing surveys are to be believed. On theFri, 01 Jul 2011 18:13:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-24.htmlU.S. Review Weak Economic Numbers and Political Impasse First-quarter GDP was revised up to 1.9 percent growth versus a previously reported 1.8 percent. On the negative side, both the GDP price deflator and the core PCE deflator were revised up. Meanwhile, the political arena remained at an impasse, where Republicans are standing put on the issue of the debt ceiling and Democrats are still asking for increases in taxes. The two parties have been negotiating for more than three months on theFri, 24 Jun 2011 18:18:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-17.htmlU.S. Review Soft Patch Is Here The U.S. economy got off to a rough start in the second quarter, but just how rough is only now emerging from the economic data. Not only were May employment gains disappointing, but retail sales actually contracted in May for the first time since last summer. At the same time, the manufacturing slowdown that began to emerge in the May data appears to have intensified in June as the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys indicate contracting manufacturing activityFri, 17 Jun 2011 17:52:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-10.htmlComing to Grips With Core Issues Now that the era of stimulus is coming to an end, decision makers must come to grips with the economy that we have—not the one some commentators dream up. First, the housing sector continues to work through its issues, which means sustained subpar housing starts for several years in several metropolitan areas. Second, the pattern of fiscal deficits (top graph) remains higher than in earlier economic recoveries. Forty years of promises for entitlements now faceFri, 10 Jun 2011 18:18:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-03.htmlU.S. Review Have We Hit a Soft Patch or Something a Bit Worse? Most of this week’s economic reports came in on the soft side, including Friday’s employment report, which showed payrolls rising just 54,000 in May and the unemployment rate rising to 9.1 percent. The ISM manufacturing survey also weakened much more than expected. The headline index fell 6.9 points to 53.5, with new orders plunging 10.7 points. Consumer confidence fell in May as consumers expressed more concern about both currentFri, 03 Jun 2011 18:53:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-27.htmlU.S. Review Another Week of Soft Economic Data The second release of first-quarter GDP growth reaffirmed that the economy grew at a 1.8 percent pace. There was a somewhat stronger-than-expected boost to GDP from inventory building, which was offset by a smaller-than-expected contribution from consumer spending. Personal income grew 0.4 percent in April, but purchasing power has been eroding due to higher food and energy prices. Real disposable income remained flat for the second month in aFri, 27 May 2011 18:11:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-20.htmlU.S. Review Manufacturing Cools While Housing Remains Frozen The Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys for May suggest that the manufacturing expansion lost a sizeable amount of momentum, while April manufacturing production contracted on auto production cuts related to the Japanese tsunami. Meanwhile, housing remains in the deep freeze. April housing starts and permits came in far below consensus expectations. In May, the NAHB housing market index held at its 6-month average of 16, andFri, 20 May 2011 18:56:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-13.htmlU.S. Review After a Momentous Week Comes a Discerning Week U.S. inflation reports came mostly above expectations during the week with import prices increasing 2.2 percent, producer prices up 0.8 percent and consumer prices up 0.4 percent month-over-month. Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 0.2 percent. The good news for the U.S. economy is that oil and overall commodity prices continued to drop during this week and this will help the U.S. consumer as gasoline and food prices come backFri, 13 May 2011 18:27:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-09.htmlU.S. Review Speculators Run For Hills Commodity prices plummeted this week amid a confluence of several factors, including higher margin requirements, rate hikes in China and India and the death of Osama bin Laden. Economic growth appears to have moderated in April, with jobless claims rising and both of the ISM indices cooling off a bit. Nonfarm payrolls rose solidly, however, and chain store sales were exceptionally strong, thanks in part to an unusually late Easter. Motor vehicle sales wereMon, 09 May 2011 09:09:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2011-05-09.html