http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-20.htmlU.S. Review Economic Recovery: Different Pace, Different Shape The leading economic index signals modest growth will continue into next year. Yet, the pace of that growth is consistent with a below-average recovery compared to the first year of prior recoveries as well as a possible longer-term downshift in trend growth. Housing starts were clearly disappointing to the “V”-shaped recovery crowd. “Core” retail sales are up modestly compared to the first year of the 2002 recovery, and theFri, 20 Nov 2009 19:29:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlU.S. Review The Wages of Unemployment Both the composition and pace of the recovery raises core issues for any business strategy for the year ahead. Longer-term and high unemployment compounds the credit/workout risks for consumer and real estate debt. High unemployment keeps the Fed on hold and further distorts market pricing of risk both in the global carry trade and inflation premiums. Finally, high unemployment also creates political risk as policy makers introduce more programs that put aMon, 16 Nov 2009 09:52:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-09.v02.htmlU.S. Review Almost Everything Is Improving Except Hiring Nonfarm employment fell by 190,000 jobs in October, with declines as broad based as in recent months. The unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent.  The ISM manufacturing index rose 3.1 points to 55.7 in October, led by a 7.6 jump in the production component. The employment index rose above 50 for the first time in 14 months. Productivity surged during the third quarter, with rebounding manufacturing output and broad based cutbacks inMon, 09 Nov 2009 06:41:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-11-09.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-30.htmlU.S. Review GDP: Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs? This week’s GDP report signals recovery. Federal spending, as well as tax credit programs for housing and autos, were big positives. The issue going forward will be what the sustainable pace of growth is once the fiscal and monetary stimulus goes away.  Once again, a jobless recovery appears to be the story for at least the next three months. This pattern where jobs lag growth has become the norm in recent cycles. This suggests thatFri, 30 Oct 2009 18:52:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-26.htmlU.S. Review Public Policy Shapes the Recovery September’s 1.0 percent rise in the Leading Economic Index offers insight into next week’s first look at Q3 GDP. The LEI is up at an 11.8 percent annual rate over the past six months, the strongest gain since 1983. Hopes that the recovery will rival the rebound from the 1981-2 recession will likely be disappointing—the growth mix is heavily weighted toward one-hit wonders like cash for clunkers and the first-time homebuyer tax credit. Hiring plansMon, 26 Oct 2009 10:33:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-19.htmlU.S. Review  No Straight Line Expansion  For the next six months, adjustments in fiscal policy, inventories and the Fed’s exit strategy will create a tricky pattern of economic growth and financial changes.   For decision-makers, this pattern suggests increased volatility in growth and interest rate expectations. Information on both the economy and policy will reinforce this volatility pattern.  The patterns of growth and interest rates will differ by sector asMon, 19 Oct 2009 07:27:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-12.htmlU.S. Review Labor Market Concerns Cloud the Economic Outlook Last week’s larger than expected decline in nonfarm payrolls and today’s weak JOLTS numbers for the month of August suggest that it will take a very long time to recover all the jobs lost during this cycle. Chain store sales for September came in slightly better than expected, climbing 0.9 percent from August and rising 0.1 percent year-over-year. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose slightly more than expected, climbing 2.5 pointsMon, 12 Oct 2009 07:46:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-05.htmlU.S. Review Change Yes, But Not Very Comfortable This will not be your typical economic recovery. September’s employment report brought home the harsh realities of the forces of cyclical weakness with soft consumer incomes and spending for the second half of this year. Secular change will be most evident in a slower pace of consumer spending and residential construction in this recovery. Globalization of production will continue as emerging markets grow faster than the U.S. Harsh Job RealitiesMon, 05 Oct 2009 08:14:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlU.S. Review A Huge Week for Policy Announcements The U.N. General Assembly, G-20 and FOMC meeting overshadowed this week’s economic news. Stimulus efforts remain in place but some programs are approaching expiration and plans were announced for an orderly winding down of the Fed’s quantitative easing.  This week’s key economic news included reports on new and existing home sales. New home sales rose 0.7 percent, whereas existing home sales fell 2.7 percent.  Weekly first-timeMon, 28 Sep 2009 08:09:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-21.htmlU.S. Review Economics as Framework for Corporate Strategy in 2010 Despite all the news we receive, there are four economic issues that must be addressed before a corporate strategy can be rationally formulated. For the real economy, the challenge is the post-recovery pace of consumer spending and housing. From the regional perspective, has the era of California/Florida dreaming come to an end? Finally, what are the Federal Reserve’s and the Obama Administration’s exit strategies for monetaryMon, 21 Sep 2009 09:49:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-14.htmlU.S. Review More Signs of Recovery but Worries Still Remain Eleven of the twelve Fed regions reported economic conditions stabilized, improved or firmed in July and August. The St. Louis district was the lone descent and even there the rate of decline seems to have moderated. The trade deficit widened more than expected, with imports rising more than any other month since March 1993, which reflects some firming in domestic demand. Weekly first-time unemployment claims declined to 550,000 butMon, 14 Sep 2009 11:19:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-07.htmlU.S. Review Employment Not so Bad; Manufacturing Getting Better Employment fell just 216,000 with job losses concentrated in construction and manufacturing. Wage growth remains limited such that personal income and thereby consumption gains will also limit the pace of economic recovery. Manufacturing gains were signaled by the ISM manufacturing index with improvement in orders, production and vendor performance. Economic recovery with low inflation remains the outlook. However, the pace andMon, 07 Sep 2009 06:18:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-31.htmlU.S. Review The Economy is Poised to Snap Back in the Second Half Recent economic indicators point to a relatively robust bounce back in industrial activity during the second half of this year. Stimulus programs are exaggerating the improvement in motor vehicle and home sales but recent gains will translate into stronger near-term GDP growth. Bernanke’s reappointment removes some of the uncertainty about the future monetary policy, while large budget deficits will constrain fiscal policyMon, 31 Aug 2009 09:09:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-24.htmlU.S. Review Stimulus is Working, So is it Time to Take it Away? The economy and financial markets continue to benefit from the flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus put in place over the past year. The Fed’s purchases of Treasury bonds and asset-backed securities have reduced mortgage rates, helped cut credit spreads, and set off a huge stock market rally. The federal government’s cash-for-clunkers program and tax credit for first time home buyers has also helped spark activity in these twoMon, 24 Aug 2009 07:26:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-17.htmlU.S. Review The Recovery May be as Challenging as the Recession This week’s economic numbers were generally disappointing, particularly given the growing consensus that the recession ended around mid-year. The cash-for-clunkers trade-in program boosted retail sales but overall sales still declined as consumers cut back on just about everything else. Productivity growth surged and inventories dropped sharply, confirming anecdotal reports that businesses cut costs every way they could earlierMon, 17 Aug 2009 07:05:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-10.htmlU.S. Review “Better News” but Still not Quite Good News July’s drop in nonfarm payrolls, smaller than consensus expectations, and slight decline in the unemployment rate raises the probability the recession has ended. The re-opening of motor vehicle assembly plants has temporarily boosted the employment data and many other economic reports. We may see a payback in coming months. Final demand appears to have improved slightly in July but incomes remain under pressure. Better News but Less thanMon, 10 Aug 2009 07:02:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-03.htmlU.S. Review More Evidence That the Recession is Ending Real GDP declined at a 1.0 percent annual rate and newly revised data for previous years show the recession was deeper than first reported. Inventories declined much more than expected during the second quarter, which should set the stage for a rebound in production. Real GDP should rise solidly in the third quarter, marking the end of the recession. Consumer Confidence fell in July and remains exceptionally low. Consumers remain concernedMon, 03 Aug 2009 08:16:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-27.htmlU.S. Review Cost Cutting Our Way Back to Prosperity Earnings continue to come in at or above expectations, with cost cutting producing more than enough savings to offset declining revenues. The better than expected earning news helped send the Dow above 9,000 on Thursday. More folks are also buying into the notion that the recession is ending. The Leading Economic Index rose 0.7 percent in June, marking the third consecutive increase. Existing home sales rose 3.6 percent in June, marking theMon, 27 Jul 2009 07:00:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-20.htmlU.S. Review The Stage is Set for at Least a Technical Rebound Production and inventory cuts during the first half of 2009 were likely a bit overdone and production is expected to bounce back during the second half of the year, leading to growth in real GDP. The unusual timing of motor vehicle assembly plant shutdowns is wreaking havoc with the economic indicators, leading to exaggerated declines in weekly first-time unemployment claims. Swings in inventories and international trade may produceMon, 20 Jul 2009 07:52:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-13.htmlU.S. Review Expectations of Recovery Continue to be Scaled Back A slight rise in the ISM non-manufacturing survey and another weak ICSC Chain Store sales report highlighted this week’s economic calendar. Unemployment claims fell sharply in early July but the drop was distorted by unusually large swings in motor vehicle production schedules and the Fourth of July holiday. Some members of the Obama Administration have expressed surprise about how high the unemployment has risen, hinting at theMon, 13 Jul 2009 06:44:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-03.htmlU.S. Review A Double Dose of Reality This week’s economic numbers may have finally brought an end to the green shoot rally. There is only so far “less bad” economic news can take us. A sustainable recovery will require things to actually get better. This week’s big disappointment was the weaker employment data. Nonfarm payrolls declined by a larger than expected 467,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 9.5 percent. The other bad economic news is the inability ofFri, 03 Jul 2009 07:31:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-07-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-29.htmlU.S. Review Clawing Our Way Back We have often noted the road to recovery would be long and arduous. The most recent batch of economic data supports that notion. Better news in one area continues to be tempered by setbacks elsewhere. This week’s pleasant surprise was durable goods orders, which showed more strength and breadth than expected. That gain was offset by mixed data on home sales and a rebound in unemployment claims. We still expect the recession will end this summer. Second quarterMon, 29 Jun 2009 06:45:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-22.htmlU.S. Review Lower Inflation Liberates the Fed Worries about inflation have clearly gotten ahead of themselves. While we believe inflation is a monetary phenomenon over the long run, lags between stronger money growth and rising inflation are long and variable. The Fed still has plenty of time to drain the liquidity it provided in the aftermath of the financial crisis before a troublesome inflation takes hold. Bond investors will likely remain edgy until such a plan materializes, as theyMon, 22 Jun 2009 05:43:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-15.htmlU.S. Review Recession and Recovery Financial markets are acting as if the recession is ending and recent economic data tend to support that notion. We are now projecting that the recession will end this summer. The strength and durability of the recovery remain very much in question, however, and the economy is expected to have a tough time gaining momentum. This past week had a light schedule of economic reports and the Treasury auctions took center stage, particularly when Wednesday’sMon, 15 Jun 2009 04:48:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-08.htmlU.S. Review The Bottom May Finally be Near Nonfarm employment declined significantly less than expected for the second month in a row. The decelerating trend of job losses now looks encouraging and the modest improvement is consistent with the most recent weekly unemployment claims data. That said, we are truly in some sort of alternative universe when a monthly loss of 345,000 jobs is widely considered to be good economic news. May’s employment report is still extremely weak. Not only didMon, 08 Jun 2009 05:01:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-01.htmlU.S. Review Rising Rates Heighten Risks Long-term interest rates jumped this week, as the Treasury received only lukewarm demand for it $101 billion in medium-term securities. The spread between the Treasury’s 10-year note and 3-month bill rose 27 basis points this week and is the widest since last November. Ordinarily a steeper yield curve would be a persuasive sign of a recovery. This does not appear to be the case today, however. Long-term yields are rising because of the Treasury’sMon, 01 Jun 2009 05:34:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-25.htmlU.S. Review A More Moderate Contraction Signs continue to emerge which suggest the rate of decline in economic activity is moderating. Real GDP will still likely post a decline in the second and third quarters but the drops should be considerably less than what we saw in the past two quarters. Job losses should also moderate, although the recent spate of vehicle-assembly plant shutdowns and dealer closings may cause layoffs to spike again this summer. Recent economic reports support the notionMon, 25 May 2009 07:08:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-18.htmlU.S. Review Structural Issues Impede Recovery Suddenly many of those “green shoots” that gathered so much attention a few weeks ago appear to be losing some of their bloom. One of this week’s major disappointments was a larger-than-expected drop in retail sales. Overall retail sales fell 0.4 percent in April and sales excluding the volatile motor vehicle sector fell 0.5 percent. Moreover, declines for March were somewhat worse than first reported. Gains in retail sales in January and FebruaryMon, 18 May 2009 09:51:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-11.htmlU.S. Review How Much Trouble Remains? The economic news continues to move in the right direction, although most reports remain merely be ‘less bad’ rather than good. The morning’s nonfarm employment figures are a prime example. Nonfarm payrolls fell 539,000 in April, which was less than the 600,000 consensus estimate. Despite the smaller than expected decline, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned. Previous employment losses were slightly worse than first reported. In addition,Mon, 11 May 2009 09:26:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-05.htmlU.S. Review On The Road To Recovery The past week’s first quarter GDP report likely marks the end of the economy’s free fall, which began when Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. A similar fall is unlikely to follow yesterday’s announcement that Chrysler is seeking bankruptcy protection and the economy should be able to handle whatever resolution unfolds for General Motors. Real GDP declined at a 6.1 percent annual rate during the first quarter, with a huge $103.7 billion plunge inTue, 05 May 2009 10:01:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-05-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-27.htmlU.S. Review Green Shoots or Just Weeds? The recent rebound in the stock market, less overtly bad economic news, and the onset of spring have lots of people reporting sightings of green shoots. Spring always brings a sense of renewal as people gradually end their winter hibernation and come out and take advantage of the better weather. How much more or less activity is seen as “picking up” is the key to seeing whether this is the start of a self-reinforcing recovery. We remain skeptical but areMon, 27 Apr 2009 09:08:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-20.htmlU.S. Review “Less Bad” Is Good The recent rebound in the stock market, a less downbeat than feared earnings season, and a few better than expected readings in the economic numbers have raised hopes that we can now see the light at the end of the deep recession tunnel. We hope so. Our fear, however, is that much of the recent improvement merely marks a shift in the rate of deceleration in economic activity. That still marks an improvement but it does not change our view that the recession willMon, 20 Apr 2009 06:11:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-07.htmlU.S. Review The Worst May Be Behind Us The combination of a slightly stronger tone to the financial markets, long overdue changes in the accounting rules, and economic news that ranged from no worse than expected to slightly better than expected, has unleashed the first significant bit of optimism we have seen since the onset of the financial crisis. While this marks a change, the recession is clearly not ending. The absolute worst of the downturn is probably behind us, with the fourth quarterTue, 07 Apr 2009 07:57:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-04-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-27.htmlU.S. Review A Few Good Numbers Economists explain away economic reports that run contrary to their own forecasts and analysis. In many cases the explanations offered by economists make perfect sense. They explain the perverse effects that seasonal adjustment, odd weather patterns or other quirks in the collection and reporting of data can often have on economic indicators. This past week’s rush of more upbeat reports was no exception, with better news on home sales, housing prices and durableFri, 27 Mar 2009 17:26:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-16.htmlU.S. Review Is This the End of the Beginning? This week’s report that retail sales fell much less than the consensus estimate in February and the upward revision to the January sales figures raises the prospect that the worst of this recession may actually be behind us. While such a statement might seem surprising, it is generally consistent with our forecast, which has long noted that late 2008 and early 2009 would mark the darkest hours of this recession. Even if the worst is behind us, theMon, 16 Mar 2009 06:10:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-09.htmlU.S. Review Plenty to Shout About There has been a whole lot of shouting going on over the past few weeks, as fears about the economy and financial markets are clearly rattling a lot of nerves. There are growing concerns that economic policy is heading in the wrong direction and that the economic stimulus package will be ineffective or even counterproductive. We feel these judgments are a bit premature and overreaching. The economy will eventually recover and the stimulus package will, at aMon, 09 Mar 2009 06:21:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-02.htmlU.S. Review The Bottom Falls Out Fourth quarter real GDP declined much more than previously reported, with the new preliminary figures showing output tumbling at a 6.2 percent annual rate. The advance estimate, released last month, had put the decline at a less severe 3.8 percent rate. The 6.2 percent decline in fourth quarter real GDP marks the largest quarterly drop since the first quarter of 1982, which occurred in the midst of the long and deep 1981-82 recession. That downturn was, upMon, 02 Mar 2009 06:28:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-23.htmlU.S. Review Is There A Silver Lining? This week saw another run of rotten economic news. Housing starts plummeted, industrial production fell sharply, the Philadelphia Fed index hit its lowest level in more than 18 years, and first-time unemployment claims increased. Even the Fed minutes had a weaker tone. With this much crummy news, we wonder if there is a silver lining somewhere. An apparent bright spot was a rise in the index of leading economic indicators. Though January marks the secondMon, 23 Feb 2009 06:53:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-16.htmlU.S. Review A Tough First Half Seems Assured Retail sales figures for January surprised the consensus estimates yesterday but were widely dismissed in markets. Overall sales increased 1.0 percent, with increases across a wide assortment of categories. The increase marked the first rise for retail sales in seven months and was the largest monthly gain in more than a year. The financial markets were not impressed. News from the retail sector has been unambiguously negative for several months,Mon, 16 Feb 2009 06:29:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-02.htmlU.S. Review Poor Momentum Going into 2009 U.S. real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Although the decline was the largest contraction since the first quarter of 1982, it was not nearly as bad as the 5.5 percent plunge the consensus expected. The real surprise was the unexpected increase in real inventories, which rose $6.2 billion in the fourth quarter following a $30 billion drawdown in the third quarter. Inventories made a positive contribution to GDPMon, 02 Feb 2009 06:56:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/weekly-economic-and-financial-commentary/2009-02-02.html