The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October is forecast to show a modest increase in hiring, similar to last month: between 100.000 and 140.000 jobs added. This time the contributing analysts' predictions vary only slightly in this respect and they all believe that the unemployment rate should either remain at 7.8% or tick up to 7.9%.
Ilian Yotov, who reminds that US employment data in September was more positive than expected, believes that "we could see another month of decent job creation" in October. Even though it seems that the pace of hiring has been improving recently, it is still "is too early to talk about a US 'steady path to recovery,'" as Valeria Bednarik suggests, adding that the country is only rather "moving away from recession."
As far as the unemployment rate is concerned, which saw a considerable drop in September to 7.8% from 8.1%, market experts agree that it will most probably remain at 7.8% or increase to 7.9%, "as discouraged workers return to the labor force and that will have a deeper negative impact," in the words of Talal Abdullah.
The release of the October NFP report will be closely followed as it comes just four days before the US presidential elections and, as Yohay Elam projects "a better than expected figure will help Obama, and could therefore trigger a 'risk off" reaction - a stronger dollar," while "a weaker result will help Romney, and therefore make markets more cheerful ('risk on'), with the dollar falling."
The US Department of Labor will publish the October NFP numbers on November 2, at 12:30 GMT. Below you will find the complete predictions of the contributing economists.
"Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show another gain of around 100K to 140K. Basically, the economic signs paint the same picture: slow growth, with stronger housing and weaker manufacturing. This hasn't changed. However, the initial report could be surprising, and can be revised later. Last month we've witnessed a gain of an additional 86K jobs in August and July through revisions. Despite the volatility, the headline figure will have a strong impact, especially as it comes 4 days before the elections, which seem too close to call at this moment. A better than expected figure will help Obama, and could therefore trigger a 'risk off' reaction - a stronger dollar. A weaker result will help Romney, and therefore make markets more cheerful ('risk on'), with the dollar falling."
"U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show that the U.S. economy managed to add 100,000 - 130,000 jobs during October. Good jobs will likely cause a short term positive reaction in the stocks market if it is better than expected.
The uptick in the NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth, but a positive sentiment reaction might support higher yielders indeed. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9% from 7.8% as discouraged workers return to the labor force and that will have a deeper negative impact and unwinding of the short positive spike for markets after last month and that will be more evident of risk aversion than anything else.
There is no doubt that the QE3 will create more jobs and boost gross domestic product, as the QE2 had created more than two million jobs and boosted gross domestic product by three percent. Yet, we can't say the U.S. economy is now on a steady path to recovery, as the labor market is still 'far from normal,' where conditions in the labor market are still challenging, although I do believe that the labor market will continue it's positive trend after the FOMC decided to indulge in quantitative easing."
"After the surprisingly positive September NFP data, we could see another month of decent job creation with the U.S. economy expected to add up to 120K jobs in October, compared with 114K in September, while the unemployment rate remains at 7.8%. The greenback could continue to benefit if the U.S. economy demonstrates resilience in the face of a global slowdown.
"Latest data indicate that the US economy is slowly emerging from a soft patch. However, since it rebounded from the great contraction of 2008-09, these episodes have been numerous, and none of them proved long-lasting. Several risks are no more weighing on prospects, but the one remaining is definitely strong. The so-called fiscal cliff makes it impossible for the business sector to be sure neither about prospects for domestic demand nor about the profitability of an expansion in capacities since the fiscal part of the equation is unknown. This will make the wait-and-see attitude to stay in place. If the results of the general elections are clear enough to remove that uncertainty, a stronger rebound could start building in late-2012. A clever resolution of the fiscal cliff could definitely open the way to a strong rebound as the sky is clearer when it comes to the eurozone debt crisis and the US housing market. Until resolution is known, we however do not expect non-farm payrolls to expand faster than 120-140k per month."
"After the good news of last month’s unemployment rate and jobs growth we are looking for this to continue this month with the figure for October scheduled out the start of November.
However last month’s NFP was overshadowed by the drop in the Unemployment Rate to 7.8%. This was largely affected by the change in the Household Survey which added 873,000 jobs to the unemployment calculations. The work week increased 0.1 and recent Consumer Sentiment indices are holding firm.
Although the figure last month was good it is worth remembering that over the course of the year the headline data has in fact been on rather a bumpy road. We have seen the ups of last month and the downs of the second quarter where employment levels led the fed to discuss offering yet further measures to ease the ailing U.S. economy.
The roller coaster is far from over and it is too early to say the road to recovery is lined with gold. The fall in unemployment although good is second fiddle to the fact that we still need headline jobs growth and private payrolls to give us a few good months to indicate recovery is catching momentum.
This month we expect a figure similar to last month of around 110-140K the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 7.8-7.9%. Anything above and we can seriously look to next year as a period of sustained growth and employment. If it falters it could be back to the drawing board for Mr Bernanke and his minions."
"The recent readings of the NFP report show that the labor market in the U.S has stabilized and this trend should remain till the end of this year. I would not focus on the unemployment rate, which has been steadily dropping and reached 7.8%. Why? I believe the unemployment rate fall may be attributed in a big part to the fact that many people has been either accepting low paid jobs (when their unemployment benefits expired), part-time jobs or frustrated leaving the labor force. Of course, the steady addition of new jobs in the non-farm sector also lowers the unemployment rate its impact is not as big as from other factors. For the upcoming reading I do not expect a large deviation from the forecasts or the last numbers – in my opinion the published NFP will be in the +100-130K range."
"Our forecast for October non-farm payrolls is +130,000 with an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.8%. This assumes a pickup to +130,000 in private sector jobs after a 114,000 rise in September and 105,000 average gains in the past 6 months and a flat reading for government sector payrolls after reduced teacher firings at the end of the school year drove a good gain in seasonally adjusted teacher jobs in July and August."
"Much has been discussed over the validity of the unemployment rate decrease to 7.8% that declined to its lowest level since January 2009 past September, reaching ahead of the elections, the same levels registered when Obama reached the House. While there are no valid arguments to discuss whether the number is real, the fact is that unemployment rate is based on a smaller survey than NFP numbers, which may have influenced the lower reading; besides, subcomponents of the employment report shown that many people took part time jobs, as there are no much hiring among full time ones. That means companies are not hiring more than earlier this year. While labor market is showing a modest grow, I still believe is too early to talk about a US 'steady path to recovery'; better would be saying the US is moving away from recession, yet not much more. For this month I would expect unemployment rate to hold in the 7.8% 8.0% band, with the economy adding around 110K."
"September's Non Farm Payrolls report marked a significant change in US labor market as previous NFP figures was revised upward and unemployment rate plunged to 7.8 percent while labor force participation increased which means that some people found a new job while others are looking again for a job. Therefore I would expect October to be a positive month too, probably the unemployment rate will increase a little bit to 7.9 percent but jobs creation should continue, probably the economy will add another 100K jobs."
Ilian Yotov, who reminds that US employment data in September was more positive than expected, believes that "we could see another month of decent job creation" in October. Even though it seems that the pace of hiring has been improving recently, it is still "is too early to talk about a US 'steady path to recovery,'" as Valeria Bednarik suggests, adding that the country is only rather "moving away from recession."
As far as the unemployment rate is concerned, which saw a considerable drop in September to 7.8% from 8.1%, market experts agree that it will most probably remain at 7.8% or increase to 7.9%, "as discouraged workers return to the labor force and that will have a deeper negative impact," in the words of Talal Abdullah.
The release of the October NFP report will be closely followed as it comes just four days before the US presidential elections and, as Yohay Elam projects "a better than expected figure will help Obama, and could therefore trigger a 'risk off" reaction - a stronger dollar," while "a weaker result will help Romney, and therefore make markets more cheerful ('risk on'), with the dollar falling."
The US Department of Labor will publish the October NFP numbers on November 2, at 12:30 GMT. Below you will find the complete predictions of the contributing economists.
Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch:
"Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show another gain of around 100K to 140K. Basically, the economic signs paint the same picture: slow growth, with stronger housing and weaker manufacturing. This hasn't changed. However, the initial report could be surprising, and can be revised later. Last month we've witnessed a gain of an additional 86K jobs in August and July through revisions. Despite the volatility, the headline figure will have a strong impact, especially as it comes 4 days before the elections, which seem too close to call at this moment. A better than expected figure will help Obama, and could therefore trigger a 'risk off' reaction - a stronger dollar. A weaker result will help Romney, and therefore make markets more cheerful ('risk on'), with the dollar falling."Talal Abdullah - Financial Analyst at ICN.com:
"U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to show that the U.S. economy managed to add 100,000 - 130,000 jobs during October. Good jobs will likely cause a short term positive reaction in the stocks market if it is better than expected.The uptick in the NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth, but a positive sentiment reaction might support higher yielders indeed. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9% from 7.8% as discouraged workers return to the labor force and that will have a deeper negative impact and unwinding of the short positive spike for markets after last month and that will be more evident of risk aversion than anything else.
There is no doubt that the QE3 will create more jobs and boost gross domestic product, as the QE2 had created more than two million jobs and boosted gross domestic product by three percent. Yet, we can't say the U.S. economy is now on a steady path to recovery, as the labor market is still 'far from normal,' where conditions in the labor market are still challenging, although I do believe that the labor market will continue it's positive trend after the FOMC decided to indulge in quantitative easing."
Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex:
"After the surprisingly positive September NFP data, we could see another month of decent job creation with the U.S. economy expected to add up to 120K jobs in October, compared with 114K in September, while the unemployment rate remains at 7.8%. The greenback could continue to benefit if the U.S. economy demonstrates resilience in the face of a global slowdown. Alexandra Estiot - Senior Economist at BNP Paribas:
"Latest data indicate that the US economy is slowly emerging from a soft patch. However, since it rebounded from the great contraction of 2008-09, these episodes have been numerous, and none of them proved long-lasting. Several risks are no more weighing on prospects, but the one remaining is definitely strong. The so-called fiscal cliff makes it impossible for the business sector to be sure neither about prospects for domestic demand nor about the profitability of an expansion in capacities since the fiscal part of the equation is unknown. This will make the wait-and-see attitude to stay in place. If the results of the general elections are clear enough to remove that uncertainty, a stronger rebound could start building in late-2012. A clever resolution of the fiscal cliff could definitely open the way to a strong rebound as the sky is clearer when it comes to the eurozone debt crisis and the US housing market. Until resolution is known, we however do not expect non-farm payrolls to expand faster than 120-140k per month." Steve Ruffley – Owner of Tradermaker.com:
"After the good news of last month’s unemployment rate and jobs growth we are looking for this to continue this month with the figure for October scheduled out the start of November.However last month’s NFP was overshadowed by the drop in the Unemployment Rate to 7.8%. This was largely affected by the change in the Household Survey which added 873,000 jobs to the unemployment calculations. The work week increased 0.1 and recent Consumer Sentiment indices are holding firm.
Although the figure last month was good it is worth remembering that over the course of the year the headline data has in fact been on rather a bumpy road. We have seen the ups of last month and the downs of the second quarter where employment levels led the fed to discuss offering yet further measures to ease the ailing U.S. economy.
The roller coaster is far from over and it is too early to say the road to recovery is lined with gold. The fall in unemployment although good is second fiddle to the fact that we still need headline jobs growth and private payrolls to give us a few good months to indicate recovery is catching momentum.
This month we expect a figure similar to last month of around 110-140K the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 7.8-7.9%. Anything above and we can seriously look to next year as a period of sustained growth and employment. If it falters it could be back to the drawing board for Mr Bernanke and his minions."
Adam Narczewski - Financial Analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB:
"The recent readings of the NFP report show that the labor market in the U.S has stabilized and this trend should remain till the end of this year. I would not focus on the unemployment rate, which has been steadily dropping and reached 7.8%. Why? I believe the unemployment rate fall may be attributed in a big part to the fact that many people has been either accepting low paid jobs (when their unemployment benefits expired), part-time jobs or frustrated leaving the labor force. Of course, the steady addition of new jobs in the non-farm sector also lowers the unemployment rate its impact is not as big as from other factors. For the upcoming reading I do not expect a large deviation from the forecasts or the last numbers – in my opinion the published NFP will be in the +100-130K range."Bill Hubard - Chief Economist at Markets.com:
"Our forecast for October non-farm payrolls is +130,000 with an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.8%. This assumes a pickup to +130,000 in private sector jobs after a 114,000 rise in September and 105,000 average gains in the past 6 months and a flat reading for government sector payrolls after reduced teacher firings at the end of the school year drove a good gain in seasonally adjusted teacher jobs in July and August." Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst with FXstreet.com:
"Much has been discussed over the validity of the unemployment rate decrease to 7.8% that declined to its lowest level since January 2009 past September, reaching ahead of the elections, the same levels registered when Obama reached the House. While there are no valid arguments to discuss whether the number is real, the fact is that unemployment rate is based on a smaller survey than NFP numbers, which may have influenced the lower reading; besides, subcomponents of the employment report shown that many people took part time jobs, as there are no much hiring among full time ones. That means companies are not hiring more than earlier this year. While labor market is showing a modest grow, I still believe is too early to talk about a US 'steady path to recovery'; better would be saying the US is moving away from recession, yet not much more. For this month I would expect unemployment rate to hold in the 7.8% 8.0% band, with the economy adding around 110K." Alberto Muñoz - Forex Analyst at FXstreet.com:
"September's Non Farm Payrolls report marked a significant change in US labor market as previous NFP figures was revised upward and unemployment rate plunged to 7.8 percent while labor force participation increased which means that some people found a new job while others are looking again for a job. Therefore I would expect October to be a positive month too, probably the unemployment rate will increase a little bit to 7.9 percent but jobs creation should continue, probably the economy will add another 100K jobs."
