http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-31.htmlHow do we resolve the current political gridlock over healthcare, the economy, and a myriad of other problems? It is clear that there are no easy solutions, and putting off making choices will just make the ultimate cost we pay that much more expensive. This week for our Outside the Box we deal with just this question, in a piece from a master of logic and reasoning and one of my favorite writers. I absorb everything I can get my hands on from Dr. Woody Brock. He has written a new book, calledTue, 31 Jan 2012 06:26:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-24.htmlThis week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” about debt and deleveraging, from the McKinsey Global Institute. This is a well-done summary of their longer paper, which has been updated, called “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth.” I discussed the original paper both in my regular letter and in Endgame. It is one of the best, most definitive pieces on the topic I have read. For those trying to understand how the deleveraging process will affect theirTue, 24 Jan 2012 05:55:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-17.htmlThe "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies aroundTue, 17 Jan 2012 06:42:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-10.htmlAs my good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment themes, which is this weekís OTB, ìThis year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveragingî ñ which also just happens to be the title of Garyís latest book. Whether you call it that or call it the End Game, as I have, it shapes up as a profoundly different and challenging era for all of us. Gary identifies 9 causes of slow global growth in the yearsTue, 10 Jan 2012 06:03:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-03.htmlFor whatever deeply embedded psychological reason – and your humble analyst is profoundly guilty – we humans seem prone to picking out a particular point in our space-time continuum (read: the New Year) to think about the future and new beginnings, rather than running the exercise every week or month. Maybe so much introspection and thinking is just too exhausting, so we only do it on an annual basis. I am deep in my reading as I research my annual forecast issue, which I will write Friday. ITue, 03 Jan 2012 06:01:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2012-01-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-21.htmlNew readers to my musings often find it interesting, when they meet me in person, to find me quite an optimistic person, given the nature of my current predictions about the economy. And regarding the short term, defined as less than five years, my writing is admittedly less than sanguine. We do have some problems that are not easily dealt with. And even longer-term, those of a bearish natural disposition can find reasons a-plenty to tone it down. But five years (at least at my age) is not allWed, 21 Dec 2011 05:48:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-13.htmlI had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal,Tue, 13 Dec 2011 06:16:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-06.htmlEurope is rapidly approaching the denouement, the Endgame, of its currency experiment. The outcome is not clear, at least to your humble analyst, as the debates rage and there are huge pluses and minuses the 17 nations must decide upon. But the proverbial road down which the can is tumbling and clattering, kicked along haphazardly, is coming to its end, and soon a rather sharp turn, either to the left or to the right, will be required. Let us hope they choose wisely. Today's Outside the Box isTue, 06 Dec 2011 06:38:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-12-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-29.htmlToday's Outside the Box is something a little different for me. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management has produced a most excellent summary of the problems inherent in "all things taxing" in the US. He delves into not only the specifics but also some of the philosophy of taxation. This is a balanced piece in which he tries to present all sides and arguments, giving us a very real picture of the dilemma we face, and leaving us to draw our own conclusions. Whatever we do going forward,Tue, 29 Nov 2011 07:33:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-22.htmlI have been reading and talking with Simon Hunt for a long time. He is a very thoughtful Brit who spends a lot of time in China and thinks about copper and commodities and cycles. He has enough seasoning to have seen a few cycles himself. This piece summarizes rather well the view that he has expressed for some time. And while I am generally skeptical of relying too much on cycles for specifics (they work until they don't), I think Simon has some very powerful conclusions. From his summary:Tue, 22 Nov 2011 06:02:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-15.htmlWhat do the “Big Fitz,” the largest ship ever to sail the Great Lakes, and the Eurozone have in common? Hint: the former sank without a trace. Or, as Grant Williams so eloquently puts it, in his Things That Make You Go Hmmm... for Nov. 13 (this week's Outside the Box), “One can't help but think ... that this week may well have brought us to the wall at the end of the road down which Europe has been kicking the can for quite some time now.” Grant inspects the SS Europe from bow to stern andTue, 15 Nov 2011 12:48:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-08.htmlLong-time readers will be familiar with Michael Lewitt, one of my favorite thinkers and analysts. He has gone off on his own to write his letter, and I am encouraging him to write even more. I call Michael a thinker because he really does. He reads a lot of thought-provoking tomes and then thinks about them. And then writes, making his readers think. The world needs more Michael Lewitts. Today, he roams the world, commenting as he goes, starting of course with Europe. I have permission to useTue, 08 Nov 2011 11:29:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-01.htmlThis week's Outside the Box will be unusual. Rather than one essay, I give you a number of short ones, and links that are representative of the confusion that is Europe, along with a little history. As I noted this weekend, last week's Eurozone announcement was short of details, and very little of the real work had been done. Merkel has to get her own country on board, keep the other nations that are in trouble from demanding haircuts, and keep the markets from trashing Italian and SpanishTue, 01 Nov 2011 06:09:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-11-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-25.htmlDo we need a law that makes it illegal to push a moose out of a moving aircraft? In baseball, what are the odds of a perfect game? How difficult will it be to solve the problems of the Eurozone? These and other issues are meditated upon by Grant Williams in his Things That Make You Go Hmmm… letter, which is this week’s Outside the Box. Maybe it was the baseball set-up (as my Rangers battle the Cardinals in the World Series) or that I keep getting asked about Europe here in New Orleans at theTue, 25 Oct 2011 06:39:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-18.htmlDr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management write a "Quarterly Review and Outlook" that is a must-read for me. This quarter they focus on US monetary policy, noting that "After peaking at 1.69 in the second quarter of 2010, M2 velocity declined for four consecutive quarters, and we estimate that a major contraction in velocity to 1.59 is likely for the third quarter." (I mentioned the importance of the velocity of money in judging inflation vs. deflation prospects inTue, 18 Oct 2011 10:49:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-11.htmlThe developed world seems to be focused on Europe, and while the next crisis in indeed brewing there, we must not forget that Asia is a large part of the future and major contributor to world GDP. My friends at GaveKal are based in Hong Kong and have staff in most Asian countries or are in them on a regular basis, so I read their Asian views with interest. Today's Outside the Box is their latest Five Corners – Asia edition, where they look at China, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as AsianTue, 11 Oct 2011 07:52:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-04.htmlThe last Thoughts from the Frontline featured an interview of me by Kate Welling. I promised another interview she did with my friend Paul McCulley, who (warning) is a consummate Keynesian. For him (paraphrasing closely), prescribing austerity for the US is like putting an anexoric patient on a diet. While Paul and I are very good friends, we do not agree on what to do about the current morass. But this is Outside the Box, and the point is to have views that I don't agree with. And Paul isTue, 04 Oct 2011 08:24:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-10-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-27.htmlIt was Gary Shilling – way back in the last century – who first woke me up to the real whys and wherefores of deflation, with his 1998 best-seller, Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs. I had read various works on deflation, but nowhere was it put together as well as Gary did it. He followed it up the next year with Deflation: How to survive and thrive in the coming wave of deflation, and in that one heTue, 27 Sep 2011 07:07:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-20.htmlToday’s Outside the Box is the latest chapter in my ongoing discussion with Dr. Woody Brock on the rationale of the politics of economics. In this essay, Woody explains how political science has taken a back seat to economics, and how to redress the imbalance we find today between what he terms "Res Politica" (the rule of politics) and "Res Economica" (the rule of economics or money). Where the rubber meets the road here is that our important economic decisions are increasingly being made byTue, 20 Sep 2011 10:52:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-13.htmlThis week we take in a piece that is somewhat outside my own box. There are a number of people who feel strongly that the US (and world governments in general) cannot pull out of the downward spiral they are in, that monetary policy is fixed on printing ever more money, and that the problems of fiat currencies are now coming to the fore. I was interviewed last week by David Galland and Doug Casey of Casey Research. Those of you familiar with them know they (and especially Doug) have a strongTue, 13 Sep 2011 10:25:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-07.htmlI love Grant Williams and his writing in his letter Things That Make You Go Hmmm... And this week's Outside the Box is the first section from his recent post, where he starts with a brief history of Gadhafi and ends up giving us a tutorial on oil pricing. This may be "inside baseball" (too much detail) for some of you; but these details are important, as the very ground of oil pricing is shifting away from the traditional sources. What will the mainstream media do? Wonder when they will shift,Wed, 07 Sep 2011 06:33:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-30.htmlThis week your Outside the Box offers two views, one from the US and one from Europe, both dealing with banks and financing. First, back in July, my friend Chris Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics wrote an important comment about how the situation in the housing market is blocking efforts by the Fed to stabilize the US economy. IRA is a rating agency that follows every US bank and consults for a number of large commercial and governmental institutions on bank performance and risk. (You canTue, 30 Aug 2011 06:00:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-23.htmlThis week’s Outside the Box is from my good friend John Silvia, the Chief Economist at Wells Fargo and fishing buddy in Maine. He has written a powerhouse book called Dynamic Economic Decision Making: Strategies for Financial Risk, Capital Markets, and Monetary Policy . Combining three intellectual disciplines – economics, business, and decision making– that have traditionally been taught separately, Dynamic Economic Decision Making forges a new path that redefines how we view businessTue, 23 Aug 2011 05:49:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-16.htmlThis week's Outside the Box is in the tradition of showing the other side of the argument. Normally, anything George Soros says or does politically has my blood pressure up about 20 points. Yet, I posted another piece of his today in Over My Shoulder – and then ran across this longer piece from Der Spiegel. Note this is from a dedicated Europhile wanting to save the euro. He succintly outlines what must be done if it is to be saved, and does it as well as anyone. (I know that among my readersTue, 16 Aug 2011 06:14:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-09.htmlThe question we will ask ourselves in 20 years is, “Where were you when they downgraded the US and the Fed?” This week’s Outside the Box is from David Rosenberg. He has made his letter public and graciously given me permission (at 34,000 feet ) to send it to you. I thought about writing an immediate response to this weekend’s events but decided to wait and meditate on what has transpired. Clearly, we are at the beginning of the Endgame. And that saddens me. The events of the weekend were hotlyTue, 09 Aug 2011 05:54:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-02.htmlThis week’s Outside the Box is guaranteed to upset you. It is about Medicare fraud. Warning: it was written by a very conservative analyst and is “pro” the Ryan plan. I want you to read it not because I am trying to get you to support the Ryan plan but to get a handle on the size of Medicare and Medicaid fraud and just how easy it is to perpetrate. There may well be better ways than the Ryan plan as advocated here, but something must be done. Want to cut spending by $1 trillion in ten years?Tue, 02 Aug 2011 06:34:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-08-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-07-26.htmlThis week’s Outside the Box is with an old friend to long-time readers, Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed is usually on the bullish side, but his research of late points to a few warning signs that say some cycle convergences may be pointing to problems. And that coincides with my macro concerns. As usual, lots of charts and data, but easy to read and understand. And, for those with stock market investments, very thought-provoking and timely. I write this at 34,000 feet on the way backTue, 26 Jul 2011 06:55:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-07-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-07-19.htmlLong-time readers are familiar with the wisdom of Lacy Hunt. He is a regular feature of Outside the Box. He writes a quarterly piece for Hoisington Asset Management in Austin, and this is one of his better ones. Read it twice. “While the massive budget deficits and the buildup of federal debt, if not addressed, may someday result in a substantial increase in interest rates, that day is not at hand. The U.S. economy is too fragile to sustain higher interest rates except for interim, transitoryTue, 19 Jul 2011 09:02:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-07-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-28.htmlToday’s Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics, and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan. Wins all sorts of awards and has won the Rising Star of Hedge Funds award. In short, he is really smart. He sent me this piece last week, and I asked if I could use it. He graciously acceded.Tue, 28 Jun 2011 06:27:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-21.htmlThis week’s Outside the Box is from one of the more interesting thinkers and observers of the markets I know, Simon Hunt. When we get together in London, conversations are lively, as we don’t always see eye to eye; but we can always discuss, in a very civil manner, the affairs of the world. This particular piece is wide-ranging and thought-provoking. Simon is always ready to apply actual times to his predictions, and he has held steady on them for years. It is late here in Geneva and I have toTue, 21 Jun 2011 07:01:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-14.htmlToday we turn away from Europe and QE2 and talk about something I find far more interesting, if not as immediate. I have been talking and emailing with Pat Cox of Breakthrough Technology Alerts a lot lately. There is just so much happening in the biotech space and, as long-time readers know, that is my hobby and the one place I actually buy stocks in this market. There is just so much misinformation (and sometimes borderline lies by short-sellers). I asked Pat to give us an update on the stateTue, 14 Jun 2011 06:30:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-07.htmlThis will be one of the more controversial Outside the Box posts in a great long time. Indeed, I debated with myself at some length. It will make some readers mad, but I decided it is more important to make most readers think. And, as it happens, there are parts of this week’s essay that I rather aggressively disagree with. That being said, there is a great deal of truth here. This represents a serious body of thought that is being debated, and we need to hear all sides, rather than just theTue, 07 Jun 2011 06:25:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-06-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-25.htmlI am attending the Global Interdependence Center’s latest conference here in Philadelphia, writing you from the Admiral’s Club on my way to Boston. The chatter last night at dinner and between sessions was focused on the risks in Europe. I did an interview with Aaron Task on Yahoo’s Daily Ticker, where I noted that European leaders are starting to use the word containedwhen they talk about Greece. Shades of Bernanke and subprime. This too will not be contained. And that brings us to thisWed, 25 May 2011 06:03:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-17.htmlEveryone is curious about the state of housing in the US. My friend Gary Shilling recently did a lengthy issue on housing as it is today. I asked him to give us a shorter version for Outside the Box, and he graciously did. And you want to know what Gary thinks, because he is one of the guys who really got it right early, from subprime to the bubble and the price collapse, and has been right all along. No one is better. This very readable edition is full of charts and fast reasoning. The quidTue, 17 May 2011 07:02:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-10.htmlI am back from Rob Arnott’s conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week’s e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue. This week’s Outside the Box is a recent white paper by Rob, where he argues that the traditional way we look at GDP is flawed, because itTue, 10 May 2011 06:23:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-03.htmlOne of the great privileges of traveling and speaking as I do is getting to meet a wide variety of very interesting people. Of late, I have become friends with David Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, who is now crisscrossing the country warning of the deficit crisis. It is a message that my book Endgame resonates with. If we do not bring the deficit down below the growth rate of nominal GDP, we become Greece. We hit an economic wall and everything collapses. It will be a real andTue, 03 May 2011 06:08:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-05-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-26.htmlThe disconnect in Europe just gets worse and worse, as I sadly predicted at least a few years ago, and have made a big deal out of over the last year, with the very pointed note that a European banking crisis is the #1 monster in my worry closet. Today, within 15 minutes of each other, I ran across the following three notes, from Zero Hedge, the London Telegraph, and the Financial Times, with a quote from Bloomberg as well. Read them all. And then try and figure out how they can all get whatTue, 26 Apr 2011 06:05:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-20.htmlDr. John Hussman is no stranger to Outside the Box readers. And his recent posting has my mind reeling. In essence he is saying that if the Fed wants to stop the QE and allow rates to rise, they must either reverse the QE or bring on inflation. And he does it with numbers and his usual strong reasoning. I really did read this 3-4 times, thinking through the implications. “There are a few possible outcomes as we move forward. One is that the economy weakens, and the Fed decides to leaveWed, 20 Apr 2011 05:06:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-13.htmlThis week’s Outside the Box is from my friend David Galland, an interview he did for The Casey Report, and it represents a philosophical train of thought more in line with Austrian economics and libertarianism than my own. But if we only read what we already think, then how do we learn? It is only when your ideas are challenged and you must determine why the other guys are wrong and you are right, that you can either become more firm in your beliefs, or change. And much of what David says inWed, 13 Apr 2011 07:21:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-05.html“Tail risk (the risk of large losses) is dramatically underestimated by many investors and the tools we have available to manage such risks are hopelessly inadequate. Financial theory which is taught at business schools and universities all over the world is plainly wrong.” This week we turn to my friend Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London for our Outside the Box offering, in which he looks at tail risk, Modern Portfolio Theory, and a risk he identifies as Birthday Risk. It is aTue, 05 Apr 2011 06:17:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2011-04-05.html