http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-17.htmlToday's Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week's Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some veryTue, 17 Nov 2009 06:07:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-13.htmlThe closed-door meeting is a prime indicator of unpredictability. It's one of the most difficult elements for even the most savvy investors to encounter and plan for - or against. Usually we know the preemptive measures we need to take in order to protect our assets, and even make a few dollars in auspicious instances. But what about the information we can't access? Luckily, we have options. Today I'm including an excellent video from my friends at STRATFOR, a global intelligence company. TheyFri, 13 Nov 2009 05:54:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-10.html"Why" many ask, "is the stock market going up when the bond market is telling us the recovery will be tepid? Isn't there a disconnect?" And the answer is that there is, and this week good friend and fishing buddy Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame discusses that very topic with his usual insight and wit. He poses the conundrum that those expecting a "V" shaped recovery have pushed risk assets up quite high, and that the real risk to their position is that they in fact get a "V" shaped recovery. AndTue, 10 Nov 2009 06:03:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-04.htmlMy long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must read. I have excerpted parts of his recent letter, where the chief investment strategist really takes the current financial system follies to task. Typical of his great writing and thinking is the quote from this week's Outside the BoxWed, 04 Nov 2009 06:51:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-27.htmlI am in Argentina today, but still have found time to read a rather provocative speech by David Einhorn, who is President of Greenlight Capital, a "long-short value-oriented hedge fund", which he began in 1996. Einhorn has long been a critic of the current investment banking business, and today he discusses the problems with not only the proposed new government regulations (or lack thereof), but also the problems with the US debt and our currency valuations. It is a most thought-provoking andTue, 27 Oct 2009 06:23:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-20.html"Everything, including the market, is ultimately empty of a separate self. One market can only be understood and analyzed in the context of other markets and conditions. Supply and demand, in particular, should not be considered in isolation." Long time Outside the Box readers are quite familiar with Dr. John Hussman, as he is a frequent choice for this column. But this week I think he has written one of his bests essays ever. He cleverly weaves in quotes from a Zen master who is his friendTue, 20 Oct 2009 06:23:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-16.htmlToday I offer you an insightful look at China's real estate market - a "burgeoning bubble" that deserves a close eye as the possibility for breaking increases. Remember the chaos in Japan after their own housing dreamscape got violently yanked back to earth? As investors, we have to recognize opportunities - and know what to avoid. With a global economic crisis - and now surging housing prices in China - investors in any global market need to keep watch on political and economic developmentsFri, 16 Oct 2009 06:06:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-13.htmlI look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece. Hoisington InvestmentTue, 13 Oct 2009 05:54:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-06.htmlWe all know that a large wave of Baby Boomers in the US are approaching retirement. But what about the rest of the world? And what happens when those retirees need to spend out of savings? There is more than just a credit crisis and a government deficit crisis in our future. A rising level of retirrees to workers is happening even as I write. And the US is not, for once, the center of the problem. As this week's writer of your Outside the Box Niels Jensen explains, we cannot all export our wayTue, 06 Oct 2009 06:10:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-02.htmlRecently I had a discussion with a colleague about university athletes. I was previously unaware that NCAA colleges set up guidance programs that develop the well-roundedness of student athletes. 'Life coaches' ensure that these individuals balance their rigorous athletic commitments with personal and academic accomplishments. I'm not judging your ability to run a mile or catch a football, but well-roundedness is an element to being successful - whatever your area may be. To be a solidFri, 02 Oct 2009 07:28:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-29.htmlThis week for your Outside the Box reading pleasure I am pleased to offer you the beginning of a very intriguing interview with Neil Howe he did with my friend David Galland at Casey Research. I think Neil is one of the premier forward looking thinkers of our time. 12 years ago, he and the late Richard Strauss basically outlined the psycho-social dynamics of our current time and his predictions have been uncannily accurate. Basically, he and Strauss demonstrated that the Anglo-Saxon world hasTue, 29 Sep 2009 07:02:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-18.htmlYou may not think that what happens in Kabul affects the sale of GM's Opel division -- but it's recognizing the connection between seemingly unrelated global events that puts you ahead of the game in investing. This week I'm sending you a video by my friends at STRATFOR. It links cars, jobs, German elections, and the situation in Afghanistan in a way that's truly insightful and informative. CAPTION: GM has approved the sale of its Opel division in Germany to a suitor favored by ChancellorFri, 18 Sep 2009 07:44:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-15.htmlOne of my favorite sources of information is The Liscio Report by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood. Among other things, each month they survey all the states about tax revenues, expenses and then give us the results in a very pithy fashion. No one pays taxes unless they have to, and thus taxes tell us a lot about the current spending and income situation. Taxes are a far more reliable indicator then surveys, which most "data" is based on. They also look at various trends in a variety ofTue, 15 Sep 2009 09:40:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-04.htmlWith the current financial crisis, we have to be even more astute in locating worthy investment opportunities. I've written lately about choices we're facing as a country – but we have choices as individuals as well: choices that demand solid insight to make well-informed decisions and recognize opportunities at a time when they're not as plentiful as they used to be. It's not enough to know what's happening on Capitol Hill or Wall Street, we must expand our investigations to a globalFri, 04 Sep 2009 05:48:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-01.htmlToday's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue. I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their materialTue, 01 Sep 2009 05:43:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-25.htmlThere is the strong possibility that policy makers in the US and UK will not time the transition from the current quantitative easing to a more tightened monetary policy. That is not because they are no competent. It is because the task is very tricky and there is no play book outlining the steps. This is not Tom Landry (former Dallas Cowboy coach) pacing the field with a play for every situation already planned and practiced well in advance. The odds favor they will either be too late or tooTue, 25 Aug 2009 07:16:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-21.htmlAs many of have heard, I had the pleasure of partaking in a weekend of fishing and intellectual jousting with some of today's most brilliant minds. We spoke of war, politics, and of course, the economy. Their interconnection seems somehow much clearer sitting on a Maine lake fishing for bass. This week I offer you an article that's key to understanding the U.S. role in Iraq. Futurologist and fellow aspiring fisherman George Friedman at STRATFOR lays out piece by piece U.S. options in theFri, 21 Aug 2009 05:28:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-18.htmlThis week I offer you two short pieces for your Outside the Box Reading Pleasure. The first is from my friends at GaveKal and is part of their daily letter. They address the real difference between those who think we will have a consumer led recovery (Keynesian) and those who think we will have a corporate profit led recovery (classical economics or Schumpeterian). This is actually a very important debate and distinction. The second piece comes from Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds. He offersTue, 18 Aug 2009 05:42:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-11.htmlThis week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes hisTue, 11 Aug 2009 05:44:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-07.htmlThis week I'd like to address the topic of currency. Flip through any business journal and speculation runs deep, though the ups and downs are far from predictable. A year ago everyone who thought they had half a brain and a pile of money comparable to Uncle Scrooge was threatening to transform all of their wealth into the seemingly unstoppable Yuan. Travel agents were pushing dirt-cheap excursions taking advantage of the near-worthless Icelandic krona to suburbanites with inquiries aboutFri, 07 Aug 2009 05:44:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-05.htmlThis week I am in the office for just one day, but I can rely on my friend Dave Rosenberg to give us solid insight on the latest GDP numbers for this week's Outside the Box. Dave slices and dices to show us what really happened. David was the former Chief Economist at the former Merrill Lynch (ah, Mother Merrill, we barely knew ye.) and is now Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., which is one of Canada's pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984, they manage $4.4Wed, 05 Aug 2009 05:54:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-08-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-28.htmlThis week I offer something unusual for outside the Box, in that I agree on almost all points with my friend David Rosenberg, except he tells it so much better than your humble analyst. David was the former Chief Economist at the former Merrill Lynch (ah, Mother Merrill, we barely knew ye.) and is now Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., which is one of Canada's pre-emi nent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984, they manage $4.4 billion. (For those who wonder, David left NYSTue, 28 Jul 2009 05:44:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-24.htmlI've mentioned a couple of schools of thought before: those who look at the big picture and those who pore over the details. Often, the major product is the result of its minor pieces. If you use good meat, good buns, and good vegetables- you're going to turn out a pretty good hamburger. The same goes for cars, businesses and portfolios. One industry in which this methodology really doesn't seem to work is information. Mainstream sources of information almost always fail to connect the world'sFri, 24 Jul 2009 06:19:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-21.htmlThis week I offer two short essays for your reading pleasure in Outside the Box. The first is from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the London Telegraph. He gives some more specifics about the situation in Europe I wrote about this weekend. He ends with the following sober quote: "My awful fear is that we will do exactly the opposite, incubating yet another crisis this autumn, to which we will respond with yet further spending. This is the road to ruin." This is a must read. And the secondTue, 21 Jul 2009 07:12:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-14.htmlThere is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation to be all about rising inflation and not a serious problem with deflation. As Niels Jensen pointed out last week, the most important question that an investor can ask is whether we are in for deflation orTue, 14 Jul 2009 05:39:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-10.htmlThis week saw a 2-day summit between the United States and Russia that looks to be the first in a trend of subtle push and pull that will shape economic agendas for both states. Just as at the height of the Cold War, these two superpowers are jockeying for global attention and prospective untapped markets. But while the communication between the two is at the same volume and frequency as it was back in the days of Kennedy and Khrushchev, the tone has taken on a different level - as ObamaFri, 10 Jul 2009 06:49:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-07.htmlAs investors we are faced with the consequences of our decisions every single day; however, as my old mentor at Goldman Sachs frequently reminded me, in your life time, you won't have to get more than a handful of key decisions correct - everything else is just noise. One of those defining moments came about in August 1979 when inflation was out of control and global stock markets were being punished. Paul Volcker was handed the keys to the executive office at the Fed. The rest is history.Tue, 07 Jul 2009 06:34:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-07-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-30.htmlLong time readers know that I am a huge fan of the work of Neil Howe. His book, The Fourth Turning, was one of the seminal pieces of my reading over the last 30 years. And it has turned out to be stunningly prophetic. Uncomfortably so. A roughly 80 year cycle has been repeating itself for centuries in the Anglophile world, broken up into four generations or turnings. We have begun what Howe called many years ago The Fourth Turning. Neil Howe is the co-author, with the late William Strauss, ofTue, 30 Jun 2009 06:06:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-23.htmlNew findings: World industrial production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of ‘green shoots'. World stock markets have rebounded a bit since March, and world trade has stabilized, but these are still following paths far below the ones they followed in the Great Depression. There are new charts for individual nations' industrial output. The big-4 EU nations divide north-south; today's German and British industrial output are closely tracking their rate of fall inTue, 23 Jun 2009 05:35:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-16.htmlBefore we get into this week's Outside the Box, let me give you a few pieces of data that came across my desk this morning, which will help set the stage for the OTB offering. Fitch (the ratings agency), in a downgrade of yet another 543 mortgage-backed securities of 2005-07 vintage, gives us the following side notes: "The home price declines to date have resulted in negative equity for approximately 50% of the remaining performing borrowers in the 2005-2007 vintages. In addition to continuedTue, 16 Jun 2009 04:55:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-09.htmlThereis a debate in academic circles on the lessons of the current economic crisis.While most ivory tower debates are of little concern to our daily affairs, thisdebate should concern you, as it will inform those who hold central bank andpolitical power. Remember, there is no playbook of rules for what to do indeflationary, deleveraging recessions. They are making it up as they go along. Todaywe have a short essay by Niall Ferguson published last week in the FinancialTimes. It speaks forTue, 09 Jun 2009 05:36:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-05.htmlOne of the first things you learn about analyzing a company is how to dissect a balance sheet. What assets and liabilities can be deployed by a company to create equity over time? I've enclosed a fascinating variant on this process. Take a look at how STRATFOR has analyzed the "geographic balance sheets" of the US, Russia, China, and Europe to understand why different countries' economies have suffered to varying degrees from the current economic crisis. As investors, it's precisely this typeFri, 05 Jun 2009 06:08:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-06-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-27.htmlThis week we look at a number of charts of various parts of the credit markets to see what kind of progress is being made on getting back to "normal" or to a "new normal." And my friend Prieur du Plessis shows us there is reason to believe that we have seen the worst. "This too shall pass" are words we should all take to heart. Things will neither stay on permanently high or low plateaus. Those doom and gloomers who expect the world to keep devolving back to some pastoral age of scarcity whereWed, 27 May 2009 05:56:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-22.htmlOccasionally I need a fast answer. So I'll run a Google search, and2.54 MILLION responses later I've learned how to handle a Thanksgivingturkey-roasting crisis but nothing useful about Turkey's financialcrisis. There's certainly no shortage of data these days. But what's inall-too-short supply is understanding. As investors, what createsopportunities isn't access to data but to ways of thinking about theworld. I created Outside the Box precisely for this reason, to sharewith you some of theFri, 22 May 2009 06:03:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-19.htmlNearly everyone I talk with has the sense that we are at somecritical point in our economic and national paths, not just in the USbut in the world. One path will lead us back to relative growth andanother set of choices leads us down a path which will put a very realdrag on economic growth and recovery. For most of us, there is verylittle we can do (besides vote and lobby) about the actual choices.What we can do is adjust our personal portfolios to be synchronizedwith the direction of theTue, 19 May 2009 06:01:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-12.htmlIt has long been my contention that we are entering an extraordinary period of time in which using historical analogies to plot market behavior is going to become increasingly problematical. In short, the analogies, the past performance if you will, all break down because the underlying economic backdrop is unlike anything we have ever seen. It makes managing money and portfolio planning particularly challenging. Traditional asset management techniques just simply may not work. Buy and hopeTue, 12 May 2009 07:54:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-11.htmlIf you ever look at the footnotes, you know that "Past performanceis no guarantee of future results." That said, by the time you'vegotten a bit of gray hair, you realize that there are few teachers asgood as history. "But this time it's different!" is the cry of peoplethat are usually just about to lose a bunch of money. Read the analysis below from my good friend George Friedman atSTRATFOR on the latest new thing, the swine flu outbreak. A few pointsyou ought to take away with you: while theMon, 11 May 2009 10:16:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-05.htmlThere are a number of data series that evaluate economicconditions using a diffusion index. A diffusion index will have a valueabove 50, when a plurality of respondents are positive, and below 50when a majority are negative. If a diffusion index increases from 35 to38, it represents a gain of 8.6%, while a rise to 46 from 45 is only again of 2.2%. It is natural to think of the larger percentage gain tobe more noteworthy. However, the smaller gain is actually moresignificant, since it will onlyTue, 05 May 2009 06:53:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-05-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-04-30.htmlI send you Outside the Box each week not to make you comfortable but to make you think. Usually it is on some financial topic, but life is more than investments. Economics is not an isolated discipline (more like an art form I think) so we have to have a real understanding of the world around us. This week I offer two essays which made me both think and reflect. We live in a world which wants easy solutions to complex problems, and wish as we may, will not get easy solutions which will work.Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:50:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/outside-the-box2/2009-04-30.html