日本語
Español
中文
Русский
Français
Indonesia
العربية
- New York 14:09
- London 19:09
- Barcelona 20:09
- Tokyo 03:09
- Sydney 04:09
- RATES & CHARTS
- NEWS
- FUNDAMENTAL
- TECHNICAL
- TOOLS
- METATRADER
- LIVE
- EDUCATION
- FORUM
- SERVICES
- BROKERS & FDMs
- Premium
Don't kick the dollar when it's down
Mon, Feb 8 2010, 15:51 GMT
by Mike Baghdady
SpyGlass | View company's profile
Mike Baghdady explains why investors would do well to hold off on sterling for the time being and look instead to the mighty greenback – down but not out, it’s hit the floor and now, the only way is up...
In my 33 years of trading, I’ve never seen such carnage around the US dollar.
The downturn that saw the collapse and near-collapse of some of the world’s largest financial institutions, changed the game for all of us.
But just months later, the US Treasury’s £430bn bail-out is being repaid and those same institutions are reporting massive profits and paying out bumper bonuses. That said, foreclosures on homes, the core of the US economy, have reached two million since 2006, and unemployment is at 10 per cent.
In the face of this apparently contradictory information, it’s worth reminding ourselves that, despite the bashing it still gets on the markets, it’s never a good idea to kick the dollar when it’s down. Here’s why...
The turbulence has hit exchange rates for the dollar hard, with bigger than normal movements on the back of every significant report that comes out; the value of the dollar has been beaten down because of the slumping economy and a zero interest rate policy by the Fed.
But top analysts are suggesting that 2010 should be a good year for the dollar as it looks to reverse direction against many of its major competitors. Exchange rate charts are already showing a change in trend towards a stronger dollar in the medium- and long-term.
The dollar had, up until the end of 2009, been on a downward trend against its major rivals for weeks, fuelled by negative sentiment towards the US economy and the looming shadow of a much larger deficit to fund the health care bill, with no apparent bottom to the housing crisis.
The view that the economy is improving and that the US government will raise interest rates and begin removing the monetary stimulus seems to me to be quite premature.
While the economy may have levelled off, we are far from reaching the bottom, in my view. In order to have a sustained recovery and growth, we first must know that we have a solid foundation to build that recovery on and see all the economic indicators such as housing and unemployment level off and start to show continued and real improvement.
You can’t hurry love – or economic recovery. Trends take time to change and much effort to turn, and while the process has begun, it is far from complete.
My view may seem bearish, but the good news is the bottoming process and the recovery have begun in earnest. From a technical perspective, we now need to see a large basing pattern in order to spark a new and strong bull market.
Negative sentiment pushed the dollar towards its lowest historical levels, but in Q4 2009, the dollar began to form a bottom and technically broke its downtrend, beginning the first leg to an upside, so the dollar’s near-term losses could be limited.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s two biggest rivals face their own obstacles. The yen is contending with a new finance minister seemingly intent on a more activist stance on the currency as well as a weak fundamental outlook in Japan. And the euro is still overshadowed by credit concerns swirling around Greece and other fiscally troubled countries in the euro zone.
For the medium-term, then, dollar weaknesses are a buying opportunity, and should be taken advantage of. Those who took on currency risk last year were rewarded: foreign currencies rallied along with their underlying equity markets. And this dollar rally looks different from the last run-up, which began in the summer of 2008 when investors rushed into US dollars in a panic.
While currencies of emerging markets are expected to hold their own or even appreciate against the dollar, emerging markets’ holdings could be especially vulnerable to a decline, after having surged last year, little helped by new banking regulations being introduced by China that would lead to the liquidation of large commodity positions and the accumulation of dollar-based assets and treasuries.
In short, you’re better off lightening up on your dollar shorts and beginning to add new longs.
Some wealth-management advisers said in January they expect the pound to rebound once the UK election is out of the way and the new government has clarified its plans, but until then advised clients with heavy sterling exposure to diversify into stronger currencies, like the USD.
The UK could well lose its triple-A status unless current deficit-reduction plans change. On top of that, investors are raising serious concerns over the outlook for the UK government bond market. So there’s more reason to avoid buying the pound long-term than the dollar.
The pound is top-heavy and technically very weak and until we see evidence on the charts of a technical rebound, it should get weaker still. The mighty dollar is not to be written off anytime soon.
Published on Mon, Feb 8 2010, 16:04 GMT
SpyGlass Trading Solutions Limited
| Tower Bridge Business Centre 46-48 East Smithfield London E1W 1AW
http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk/ | info@spyglasstrading.co.uk
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Terms & Conditions of User DisclosuresChanges may be made to this Disclaimer at any time without notice. Accordingly, you also agree to review the Disclaimer regularly and your continued access or use of the SpyGlass TraderChat©, SpyGlass StockWatch©, McDady Newsletter©, McDady Trading System© and/or associated website means that you agree to any changes to the Disclaimer.
If you access and use SpyGlass TraderChat©, The McDady Commodities Newsletter©, The McDady FX Newsletter©, SpyGlass Stockwatch©, the McDady Trading System© and/or associated website, henceforth to be designated as SpyGlass Trading Products, you accept and agree to be bound by and comply with these legal terms of use (the disclaimer).
If you do not accept this disclaimer, do not use SpyGlass Trading Products.
1. Terms & Conditions of Use - General
Please read the Terms & Conditions of Use/Disclaimer as this contains important information concerning regarding the use of SpyGlass Trading Products. By accessing SpyGlass Trading Products, you accept and agree to be bound by, andcomply with, the terms and conditions of use.
These Terms & Conditions of Use/Disclaimer are to be read in conjunction with any terms, conditions or disclaimers provided in the pages of the newsletter and/or associated website.
The Terms & Conditions of Use/Disclaimer contain important information and warnings regarding the risks associated with Stock, Forex and Futures trading and should be accessed and read before reading the information for managed Stock, FOREX and Futures accounts discussed in SpyGlass Trading Products.
If you access and use SpyGlass Trading Products, you accept and agree to be bound by and comply with the Terms & Conditions of Use.
If you do not accept the Terms & Conditions of Use, do not use SpyGlass Trading Products.
SpyGlass Trading Products has been issued for and on behalf of SpyGlass Trading Solutions, LLC ("STS").
The information contained herein is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any stocks, currencies or commodities described herein.
The information discussed in SpyGlass Trading Products has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy.
The risk of trading Stocks, FOREX, Futures and options can be substantial and each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment for him/her. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Persons acting on any information discussed in SpyGlass Trading Products are responsible for their own actions.
The services provided by STS may not be available in all jurisdictions. It is possible that the country in which you are a resident prevents STS from opening and maintaining an account for you. If in doubt, please contact an STS account representative.
2. Changes to Terms & Conditions of Use/Disclaimer
STS reserves the right to change the Terms & Conditions of Use or any material on SpyGlass Trading Products at any time. Any such change will become effective immediately upon accessing SpyGlass Trading Products. You agree to review these Terms & Conditions of Use/Disclaimer each time you access SpyGlass Trading Products.
3. Intellectual Property
SpyGlass Trading Products and all information contained therein, including, without limitation, the look and feel of SpyGlass Trading Products and all design, text, images, trademarks, trade names, logos, white papers, press releases and otherinformation, and all software products advertised, presented, or discussed therein, is protected under United States and other copyright laws and is owned by STS or used under license from the owner of the respective intellectual property rights.
In addition, all right, title, and interest in all servers and server-based technology related to SpyGlass Products, and all information contained therein, including, without limitation, protocols, parameters, designs, specifications, and user identification algorithms, and technology underlying such algorithms are owned by STS.
The foregoing may not, except under written license, be copied, reproduced, transmitted, displayed, performed, distributed, rented, sublicensed, altered, stored for subsequent use or otherwise used in whole or in part in any manner without STS''s prior written consent, except to the extent that such use is expressly authorized under the United States copyright laws.
STS's trademarks, trade names, logos, images, and, service marks used on this newsletter and/or associated website are the property of STS and may not be used without prior written permission from STS and then only with proper acknowledgment.
4. Disclaimers of Warranties and Liability
A. STS, ITS EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES AND ASSOCIATES DO NOT REPRESENT OR IMPLY ANY PERFORMANCE LEVEL, RESULTS OR GUARANTEE IN RELATION TO THE OPERATION OF THE STSTRADING SYSTEM SOFTWARE OR SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS NOR DO THEY MAKE ANY CLAIM THAT THE USE OF STS TRADING SYSTEM SOFTWARE OR SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS WILL RESULT IN A PARTICULAR PROFIT OR PREVENT ANY LOSS FOR A USER.
B. STS AND its EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, REPRESENTATIVES AND ASSOCIATES DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF ANY INFORMATION OR ANALYSIS ON SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS.
THERE MAY BE OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS. TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, STS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS AND MAKES NO EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY REGARDING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
STS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSS OR DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF, OR IN CONNECTION WITH, YOUR USE OF SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS OR ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED IN SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS.
C. IN NO EVENT SHALL STS BE LIABLE TO ANY PARTY FOR ANY DAMAGES INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF BUSINESS PROFITS, BUSINESS INTERRUPTION, LOSS OF PROGRAMS OR INFORMATION, OR LOSS OF SAVINGS), OR ANY OTHER DAMAGES ARISING - IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM - OUT OF THE AVAILABILITY, USE, RELIANCE ON, OR INABILITY TO UTILIZE SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS, EVEN IF STS SHALL HAVE BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, OR OTHERWISE.
BECAUSE SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE EXCLUSION OR LIMITATION OF INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, THE ABOVE EXCLUSIONS OF INCIDENTAL AND CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES MAYNOT APPLY TO YOU, BUT SHALL APPLY, IN ANY EVENT, TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE.
D. YOUR ABILITY TO ACCESS SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS MAY, FROM TIME TO TIME, BE DELAYED AND/OR INTERRUPTED DUE TO SCHEDULED AND/OR UNSCHEDULED CAUSES. SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS IS PROVIDED ON AN "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" BASIS, WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. NO WARRANTY IS MADE THAT THE FUNCTIONS OR SERVICES PERFORMED BY USER IN CONNECTION WITH THE SERVICE WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE OR THAT DEFECTS IN THE SERVICE WILL BE CORRECTED.
USER EXPRESSLY AGREES THAT USE OF SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS IS AT ITS OWN RISK. STS WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE THAT COULD RESULT FROM INTERCEPTION BY THIRD PARTIES OF ANYINFORMATION MADE AVAILABLE TO YOU, OR PROVIDED TO STS BY YOU VIA SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS.
E. STS DOES NOT WARRANT OR GUARANTEE THAT ANY INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON OR THROUGH SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS WILL BE FREE OF INFECTION BY VIRUSES, WORMS, TROJAN HORSES OR ANYTHING ELSE MANIFESTING CONTAMINATING OR DESTRUCTIVE PROPERTIES.
IT IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER TO ISOLATE SOFTWARE AND INFORMATION, EXECUTE ANTI-CONTAMINATION SOFTWARE, AND OTHERWISE TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT SOFTWARE OR INFORMATION, IF CONTAMINATED OR INFECTED, WILL NOT DAMAGE USER''S INFORMATION OR SYSTEM.
F. USER EXPRESSLY AGREES TO INDEMNIFY AND HOLD STS, AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES, AFFILIATES, SHAREHOLDERS, DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, CORRESPONDENTS, CO-BRANDERS OR OTHERPARTNERS HARMLESS FROM ANY CLAIM OR DEMAND, INCLUDING REASONABLE ATTORNEYS' AND EXPERTS' FEES, MADE BY ANY THIRD PARTY DUE TO OR ARISING OUT OF YOUR INFORMATION, YOUR USE OF OR CONNECTION TO THE STS TRADING SYSTEM SOFTWARE AND/OR SPYGLASS TRADING PRODUCTS, YOUR VIOLATION OF THE TERMS OF USE, OR YOUR VIOLATION OF ANY RIGHTS OF ANY OTHER USER OR OTHER THIRD PARTY.
5. Privacy
Your expectations of privacy are important. The Privacy Policy set forth in SpyGlass Trading Products explains how STS collects personal information from you and then maintains, uses and discloses that information.Please carefully read the separate Privacy Policy.
Please note that SpyGlass Trading Solutions Inc. and TradeStation Europe Limited are independent entities and not affiliated in any manner. By registering for events, both TradeStation Europe and SpyGlass Trading Solutions Inc. will have access to your contact details provided by you. We are committed to protecting the confidentiality and security of non-public information.
6. User Obligations
Any person accessing or using SpyGlass Trading Products undertakes the followingobligations: (a) to comply with all applicable laws and regulations;(b) not to introduce into SpyGlass Trading Products, or any network or equipment supporting SpyGlass Trading Products, any virus, worm, harmful code, Trojan horse or other disabling service; (b) not to attempt to interfere with or disruptSpyGlass Trading Products, or any network and/or other equipment supporting it; (d) not to attempt to gain improper access to or otherwise interfere with any system or network connected to or affiliated with SpyGlass Trading Products.
Any violation of these obligations is grounds for denying a user access to and use of this newsletter and/or associated website in addition to other available remedies.
7. No Recommendation
Stock, FOREX and Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Please read this complete disclaimer for more information regarding the risks of trading. Information provided in SpyGlass Trading Products, including daily price data, is believed to be reliable when posted, but there is no guarantee that it is accurate or complete or current at all times.
8. Risks of Stocks, FOREX and Futures Trading
In deciding whether or not you wish to become involved in Stock, FOREX or Futures trading with a Stock, FOREX or Futures broker, you should be aware you could both gain and lose large amounts of money. Without limitation, you risk losing money because:
(a) You could lose all the margin funds you deposit with the broker to establish or maintain a position and lose further amounts as described in paragraph (c) below.
(b) If the market moves against your position, you may be required, at short notice, to deposit with the broker further moneys as margin in order to maintain your position. Those additional funds may be substantial. If you fail to provide those additional funds within the required time your position may be liquidated. You will be liable for any shortfall in your account resulting from that liquidation.
(c) You could lose all monies deposited with the broker, and in addition be required to pay the broker further funds representing losses and other fees on your open and closed positions.
(d) Under certain conditions, it could become difficult or impossible for you to liquidate or close a position (this can, for example, happen when there is significant change in prices over a short period).
(e) The placing of contingent orders (such as a "stop-loss" order) may not always limit your losses to the amounts that you may want. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.
(f) The high degree of leverage that is obtainable in futures trading with the futures broker because of small margin requirements can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as large gains.
(g) Futures and options trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures and options on futures. Only risk capital should be used.
(h) No representation is being made that futures and options on futures trading is appropriate for everyone or that it should be viewed as an alternative, replacement or supplemental form of income.
You should discuss these matters further with your broker prior to commencing any trading.
9. Not offering any personal advice
The information included in SpyGlass Trading Products is provided only to give you a basic understanding of Stocks, FOREX and Futures trading and is not intended to provide specific financial or investment advice for you, and should not be relied upon in that regard.
You should not act or rely on the information in SpyGlass Trading Products without seeking the advice of your financial adviser or broker who will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered and that action is taken on the latest available information.
10. Members' Area
Users of the Members'' area of SpyGlass Trading Products are also obligated to abide by the terms, conditions and disclaimers provided in SpyGlass Trading Products.
11. Dispute Resolution
Any dispute arising out of or concerning SpyGlass Trading Products offered or sold by STS shall be resolved by arbitration before the National Futures Association. All hearings shall be held in Chicago, Illinois. STS reserves the right, however, in its election to bring any action in a court of law whose situs is located in Chicago, Illinois, to enforce any legal or equitable right.
Users of SpyGlass Trading Products agree to waive any right they may have to transfer or change the venue of any litigationbrought against them by STS.
Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
* GFT is a sponsor of FXstreet.com for advertisement purposes only. GFT does not endorse any other products, services, or companies represented on FXstreet.com. The views of FXstreet.com and all other parties contained therein are not necessarily those of GFT, and GFT makes no warranty as to the accuracy of information provided.
©2010 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.