USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 12-16

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

USD/CAD posted small gains over the week, despite some strong movement in both directions. The pair closed the week at 1.3032. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US, a major services report disappointed, as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI sagged to 51.4 points, its worst showing since 2010. The Bank of Canada maintained the benchmark interest rate and Employment Change was much stronger than expected.

USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it.

Governor Council Member Carolyn Wilkins Speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. Wilkins will speak at event in London, England. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the USD/CAD.
Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 12:30. This key event rebounded after a decline in June, posting a strong gain of 0.8%. This matched the forecast. The estimate for the July release stands at 0.6%.
Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 12:30. The indicator is closely watched, as it is linked to currency demand. In June, the indicator dropped to C$9.02 billion, well short of C$17.23 billion. The forecast for the July estimate stands at C$10.12 billion.

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2994. The pair dropped to a low of 1.2816, as support held at 1.2804. USD/CAD then rebounded sharply and climbed to a high of 1.3053. The pair closed the week at 1.3032.

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.3353.

1.3219 was a cap in April.

1.3081 held firm in resistance as the pair posted sharp gains late in the week.

1.2990 is currently a weak support line.

The round number of 1.2900 is next.

1.2804 was an important cushion after the Brexit vote in late June.

1.2674 has provided support since mid-June.

1.2562 was a cap in July 2015. It is the final support line for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

Despite an excellent strong job report, the struggling Canadian dollar could not make headway against the US dollar last week. There is a reasonable chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, so sentiment towards the greenback remains positive.

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850

EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.

GBP/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.3630

GBP/USD has quickly given back Friday’s solid gains, turning lower at the start of the week and drifting back towards the 1.3630 area. The focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s UK labour market report, which is likely to keep the quid firmly in the spotlight and could set the tone for Cable’s next move.

Gold battle around $5,000 continues

Gold is giving back part of Friday’s sharp rebound, deflating below the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce as the new week gets underway. Modest gains in the US Dollar are keeping the metal in check, while thin trading conditions, due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US, are adding to the choppy and hesitant tone across markets.

AI Crypto Update: Bittensor eyes breakout as AI tokens falter

The artificial intelligence (AI) cryptocurrency segment is witnessing heightened volatility, with top tokens such as Near Protocol (NEAR) struggling to gain traction amid the persistent decline in January and February.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

XRP steadies in narrow range as fund inflows, futures interest rise

Ripple is trading in a narrow range between $1.45 (immediate support) and $1.50 (resistance) at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token extended its recovery last week, peaking at $1.67 on Sunday from the weekly open at $1.43.