UK: Political chaos continues – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, notes that the so-called 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announced that the nominations for a new leader should open on Wednesday (29 June) and close on Thursday (30 June) at noon.

Key Quotes

“We should know the new leader by 2 September at the latest. If there is only one candidate, and the candidate has the support of Conservative MPs, he/she is the new leader. If there are two candidates, the new leader is elected by the members of the Conservative Party on 2 September. If there are more than two, the Conservative MPs vote among the candidates until two candidates are left.

Boris Johnson is the favourite but since he is quite unpopular among many Conservative MPs, in our view, Home Secretary Theresa May is also a likely candidate. In a statement yesterday morning, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said that he will ‘address his own future in coming days’. Media reports suggest he has been offered to become Foreign Secretary or stay as Chancellor of the Exchequer in a Boris-led government.

Boris Johnson wrote a column in yesterday’s Telegraph. In the column, he writes that he does not believe that leave votes ‘were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration’ but that ‘the number one issue was control’. He also reached out to the many voters in favour of remain stating that ‘Britain is a part of Europe, and always will be’ and that ‘there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market’. He also said he could not ‘detect any real appetite’ for a second Scottish independence vote.

The Labour leadership crisis continued further yesterday as it was confirmed that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn faces a no confidence vote today. The result should be known around 5pm CEST.”