Who Moved the Cheese?

Wait, who moved the cheese?  What caused the sharp rally yesterday?  Stocks rebounded sending all 3 of the major indexes to new highs!  As the journal noted

"US Stocks Notch a Record Trifecta"

All of the majors indexes have apparently overcome the recession story, they seem to be discounting weak corp earnings and tepid global growth, BREXIT - what's that?  China?  Who cares?  and the US?  Things could not be better!  ......Investors/traders loving the fact that all the major central banks continue to support negative or low global interest rates.......the smart money is now making the decisions for bankers - holding them in check as money is forced into risk assets.  As the mkts make new highs and the administration celebrates the economic data continues to point to trouble ahead......Zero Hedge reminds us that  

 “US Federal Tax Receipts are rising at just 1.2% year-over-year (12-mo rolling), slowing drastically from its 13.4% YoY growth in June 2013. While "it's probably nothing," we thought readers may be interested to note that the last six times tax receipt growth was at this weak a level, the American economy was in recession...”

A headline in the WSJ this morning also highlights how

"Home Equity Loans Come Back to Haunt Borrowers, Banks"

- missed payments and delinquencies are on the rise.....840,000  HELOC's (Home Equity Line of Credit) that were taken out in 2006 are due to reset this year - resets can lead to a big jump in the payment per month leaving already struggling consumers with another kick in the groin.....and if that is not enough -  another 1 million resets will hit next year.... The big banks are already warning of the risks ahead.....now while this should not cause a meltdown like we saw in 2007-2010 it is something to keep your eyes on......especially if the economy goes in reverse.....

 - Retailers shot higher......Macy's jumped +14%.   What was the news?  Closing stores and slashing expenses...... confirming the harsh reality for brick and mortar retailers in a recessionary world.  Remember - those stocks have done nothing all year..........Macy's which was flat on the year - and off 40% from its 52 wk high announced that it is closing 17% more of its stores (= 100), laying all of those people off as they continue to CUT expenses......Sales fell 4% but BEAT the expectations of $5.8 bil.....and so the algo's tripped over each other trying to scoop up the low hanging fruit..... KSS which was of 28% ytd rallied 14% and Nordstrom's which was off 14% ytd - managed to rally 7% on the news.....

Oil rallied 4% as the rumor caught fire that maybe the Saudi's would consider some kind of cap to help stabilize oil prices in September......Look - we are coming into the time of year when global oil inventories usually build as the weather cools in the northern hemisphere....and if they try to hold oil prices up here - do not expect Iraq, Iran, Russia  etc. to halt or slow production.......These countries are so dependent on oil revenues they are not going to slow production (willingly....)

Gold as you might expect - backed off as the mkt rallies.....gold is a safe haven play in times of fear - so if investors are not fearful - and according to the VIX they are not, then gold should come under some pressure as investors take money out of that asset class to redeploy in stocks....Now it is holding the line at $1344/oz  and any further pressure should test it 50 dma at $1325/oz.  If suddenly - the mood changes - and stocks come under pressure then watch for gold to test its most recent high of $1375/oz.

Yesterday - the shots continued....Hillary had her chance to present some of her economic plans.....and while the media has painted Trumps plan as a disaster complete with fire and brimstone - was Hillary's really any different?  She promises to fix 'everything' for everyone....she is going to create more jobs, raise taxes, challenge the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and hand out crayons and coloring books for everyone....Leaving one to ask - if she and her advisors have all of these brilliant ideas - how come no one told the current administration?  Was she playing "I've got a secret?"   She keeps telling us that she is going to 'build on Obama's ECONOMIC SUCCESSES'  -

OMG...I can't wait for more economic success, can you?  

Today the economic news is all about the Retailers and what that says about the consumer and the US economy.  Exp are for Retail Sales to show a 0.4% increase, ex autos and gas at +0.3%....PPI (Producer Price Index) m/m of +0.1% while y/y is +0.2%  PPI ex food and energy m/m of +0.2% and y/y of +1.2%... 

US futures are flat after the burst higher yesterday....remember - earlier this week - I said it felt like the mkt wants to test 2200 on the index......we are one step closer to that goal....but then what?? 

Many of you know that I am a board member of the Headstrong Project - an organization that helps to treat returning veterans that suffer from the 'Hidden Wounds of War'...... I am honored to announce that we partnered with Humans of New York to share the courageous stories of veterans who suffer from the hidden wounds of war, and have found the help through The Headstrong Project.

Over the next couple of weeks, you can read personal stories from veterans, like Frank, former U.S. Army Staff Sergeant, who finally found the help he needed to “stop hearing those 50-calibers.”

Frank is just one example of why it is our mission to provide cost-free mental health services to American veterans who served in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Humans of New York is an opportunity to raise awareness of Headstrong’s impact, and highlight the need to reach the rest of the over 300,000 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans who report symptoms of PTSD.

Please read these stories, and share the mission of The Headstrong Project with your communities on Facebook and Twitter.

Have a great weekend.....

Mezza Rigatoni w/Sautéed Sweet Sausage and Broccolini

So last night I got home and whipped up one of my favorites.. and today I share it again with you..


This is such an easy dish and is never a disappointment - Takes about 20 mins to make and serve.  Enjoy it this weekend, no?

You need:  Garlic, 1 large Spanish Onion, 1 spool of Sweet Sausage (removed from the casing), broccolini, chicken stock, olive oil and s&p & Fresh grated Pecorino Romano Cheese.

Bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil,

While this is happening - sauté sliced garlic - like 3 or 4 cloves in olive oil - now add the sliced Spanish onion and sauté until translucent.  Remove and set aside.  Add the sausage meat to the same pan and brown - season with s&p.  Once it is all nicely browned - add back the onions and garlic and sauté on low.  Add about 1 cup of chicken stock. 

Toss the pasta into the water and cook until aldente.  Strain - reserving a mug of the pasta water.  Return the pasta to the pot add  back a splash of the pasta water and let it absorb - Now add in the sausage mixture.    Toss in a handful of the pecorino cheese and serve immediately.  A glass of wine is the perfect complement.

 
Buon Appetito.