Oil import-dependent Asia nations scramble

Asia market update: Crude oil spike >$100/bbl shifts investment landscape and growth outlook; Oil import-dependent Asia nations scramble; STOP PRESS: G7 potential joint SPR release (FT).

General trend and developments

- WTI crude smashed through >$100/bbl at the open, as high as $111, as the Hormuz Strait, while officially open, only saw a few tankers from Iran, Chinese and Greece and a few other tankers braving the volatile conditions, with typical VLCC (Very Large Crude Carriers) daily shipping fees reflecting the higher perceived risk and resulting bottlenecks, rising from $50-100K per day to as much as $400-700K per day, making the journey’s risk worth it for some shipping lines. (Tankers International and others).

- However, over the past 24 hours only a few Iran-linked vessels (and potentially some Chinese-operated ships) have been reported to navigate the waterway .

- WTI and Brent crude converged to parity at ~$111/bbl, last reached at coincidentally the same price level ($109) back in July 2013. (followed increased U.S. infrastructure for transporting inland crude (such as the Cushing hub) to the Gulf Coast. WTI likely driven. WTI may have risen to parity on prospects of US shipping energy to other nations (see below).

- Asian nations respond by beginning to remove fuel tariffs (Vietnam) while Japanese oil refiners last week requested a release of the national strategic oil reserves, but still no official word of confirmation of any releases in Japan. US Dept of Energy says Philippines looking to source US, Australia oil.

- Effects on equities were most severe on net oil importers in Asia: Nikkei and Kospi worst, both -7%, Taiex -5%, with Hang Seng -2.5%, ASX -3.7%. [Chip-related stocks -Advantest -10%, Hynix -9.6%, Samsung -11%, Hynix -9.6%, Kioxia -9%, Softbank -8.7%. Airlines Qantas -9%, Korea Air -9%, Air China -7%, AirAsia (Malaysia) -20%.] Hyundai -10%.

- Currencies: KRW 1,499.5 (nearly at 1,500, lowest since GFC in 2008), JPY 158.85 approaching Jan lows; Commodity currencies Aussie / Kiwi both down close to-1%. Net oil importers India Rupee, Philippine Peso and Indonesia Rupiah at record lows; Thai baht -1.3% as Taiwan Dollar fell to May 2025 levels.

- Asia yields shot up 15-20bps in several countries: Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea. Japanese 10-year yields +5bps.

- Spot Silver initially -5% to $80/oz; Spot Gold -3% to $5,025/oz; Spot Platinum -4% to $2,043/oz, but later pared some losses.

STOP PRESS: FT Reports that G7 discussing potential joint SPR release of oil reserves, with support from US. WTI -7% to below $105/bbl.

Other news

- Japan real wages for Jan (ahead of the BOJ meeting next week), saw a rise y/y for first time in 13 months, while Base salaries saw strongest growth since late 1992.

- China’s Foreign Minister flagged at the 2026 NPC that the planned visit by Pres Trump to China from end-Mar will indeed take place as scheduled, despite the Iran conflict.

- China’s homegrown aircraft manufacturer, COMAC, clearly still struggling to ramp up production (reportedly only 13-15 output in all of 2025), as reports China will request one of the biggest orders for jets ever, 500 from Boeing, as part of the Mar/Apr trade talks between Trump-Xi.

- RBA’s Dep Gov Hauser gave a speech in NYC on Friday, not talking about Monetary Policy but giving some insightful thoughts and backing data showing that the US dollar remains pre-eminent global safe haven, despite "glacial" diversification by Central Banks. However, capital inflows into the US over past year or seen higher flows into equities rather than debt.

- In terms of US Fed policy,

- US Fed hawk Schmid (though a non-voter) might be joining Miran, Waller and Bowman in turning dovish due to jobs? Schmid said that the labor market is under structural, not cyclical strain. Comes on the back of dreadful NFP jobs numbers on Friday (-92K, where +55K expected, worst since Dec 2020).

- US equity FUTs -1.6% to -1.9% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

- Tue Mar 10th, JPJP Q4 GDP, AU Feb NAB Business Confidence (Tue night, CN Feb Trade Balance).

- Wed Mar 11th, (Wed night, OPEC Monthly Report, US Feb CPI & Core CPI).

- Thu Mar 12th, (Thu night, IN Feb CPI, US Jan Trade Balance).

- Fri Mar 13th, NZ Business PMI, (Fri night, EU Jan Industrial Production, US Q3 GDP, RU Feb CPI).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Mar 9th Russia.

- Tue Mar 10th Kazakhstan.

- Fri Mar 13th Mauritius.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- (AU) ASX 200 opens -2.7% at 8,615.

- (AU) ASX extends declines to -3%, airlines again start the week sharply lower on Middle East and fuel price concerns; Qantas -9%.

- (NZ) New Zealand PM Luxon: NZ well placed to ride out latest global shock - financial press.

- (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min Willis: NZ economy in stronger position than Dec forecast - financial press.

China/Hong Kong

- (CN) Shanghai Composite opens -0.6% at 4,099; (HK) Hang Seng opens -2.6% at 25,076.

- (CN) China Feb CPI Y/Y: 1.3% V 0.9%e.

- (CN) Boeing (BA): China said to be in talks to order 500 737 Max and 100 787 Dreamliner, 777x - press.

- (CN) China NPC Standing Committe: To revise law on enterprise state-owned assets - 2026 Work Report.

- (CN) China Long Mar 8A Yao-8 rocket transferred to launch area, to be launched at a later date – Chinese press.

- (CN) On Saturday, second bulk carrier that ‘signaled’ China ownership sailed through the Strait of Hormuz – US financial press [update].

- (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.9158 v 6.9025 prior [strongest Yuan fix since late Apr 2023].

- (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY49B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY87B v drains CNY224B prior.

Japan

- (JP) Nikkei 225 opens -1.9% at 54,588.

- (JP) Japan Jan Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.4%e.

- (JP) Japan Jan Current Account Balance: ¥941.6B v ¥930.0Be.

- (JP) Japan Feb Bank Lending Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4% prior.

- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: No decision made to release strategic oil reserves.

- (JP) Japan Top FX Diplomat Mimura: Rising debt servicing costs limit fiscal space in Japan - financial press.

- (JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Can't say if war is existential threat to Japan - financial press.

- (JP) Japan Trade Min Akazawa; Will make all efforts to ensure oil price rises do not affect Japanese people's lives negatively.

Korea

- (KR) Kospi opens -5.7% at 5,265.

- (KR) South Korea said to speed interceptor missile deliveries to UAE.

- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): To take market stabilization steps if necessary due to Mid East developments - financial press.

- (KR) Korea Exchange sidecar activated as Kospi falls -8%, halted for 20 minutes.

- (KR) South Korea planning to pass bill on FX stabilisation by Mar 19th - Yonhap.

- (KR) South Korea Pres Lee: To prepare preemptive measures with worst case scenario in mind concerning Middle East Crisis.

Other Asia

- (TW) Taiwan's stabilization fund may convene meeting on markets.

- (TW) Econ Min Kung Ming-Hsin: There will be absolutely no shortage of power supply before April - financial press.

- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) likely selling US dollars to temper Rupee fall amid oil price surge - traders.

- (IN) India Rupee hits fresh record lows amid Mid East tensions.

- (PH) US DOE says Philippines looking to source oil from US, Australia - financial press.

- (PH) Philippines President Marcos orders free Telco service for overseas Filipino, families and Middle East crisis - financial press.

- (VN) Vietnam govt: To remove fuel tariffs amid Mid East supply disruption - financial press.

- (ID) CME reports the first South Asia CPO (Crude Palm Oil) FUTs trades - Press.

- (MY) Malaysia Fin Min: Malaysia in good economic position, has capacity to absorb some changes stemming from Middle East crisis.

North America

- (US) WTI Crude FUT’S rise above $100/bbl; Brent FUT’S rise 10% to above $102/bbl.

- (US) WTI Crude FUTs +25% at $114.35/bbl.

- (US) Pres. Trump: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for the USA... - post on Truth Social.

- (US) Pres. Trump: US, Israel to make 'mutual decision" with PM Netanyahu on ending war in Iran - Times of Israel phone interview (update).

- (US) President Trump: It’s not the Save Act, it’s The Save America Act! A MUCH better, and more important, name!!! – Truth Social.

- (US) State Department: Confirms to have ordered non-emergency US government employees, family members to leave Saudi Arabia due to safety risks on Sunday (March 7th) - financial press.

- (US) Sec of War Hegseth: US strikes on Iran "only just the beginning" - CBS 60 Minutes interview.

- (US) US envoys Witkoff and Kushner plan to meet Netanyahu on Tuesday in Israel - Axios.

- (US) At Freeport LNG pretreatment facility, trains 1-3 were taken offline; cites issue with the facilities utility system; cites community alert [no update on whether operations were impacted].

- (CA) Canada PM Carney discussed Middle East, trade relations with Trump.

- (CO) Valencia retains wide lead in Colombia Conservative Presidential Primaries - financial press.

Europe

- (EU) IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva: We are seeing resilience tested again by new conflict in Middle East - financial press.

- (UK) Recruiters noted job market in the UK became ‘less gloomy’ during Feb - Press.

- (UK) Dozens of train services have been cancelled; National rail said Glasgow Central Station will be closed until further notice due to major fire - financial press.

- (TR) Turkey extends short selling ban on stocks through end-week - financial press.

- (TR) Turkey to deploy 6 F-16s in Northern Cyprus - local press.

Middle East

- (SA) US State Dept said to order diplomats in Saudi Arabia to 'leave' - NYT.

- (SA) Saudi Defense Ministry: Intercepts drone east of Al-Jawf - financial press.

- (SA) Foreign Ministry: Continued Iranian attacks will lead to further escalation and have serious impact on relations 'now and in the future' - financial press.

- (SA) Saudi Defense Min: Intercepted another drone heading toward Shaybah oil field - statement.

- (IR) Explosions heard in various parts of Tehran (Iran) [timing uncertain] – Mehr.

- (IR) Iran confirms selection of Mojtaba as Supreme Leader - FARS.

- (IR) Bahrain: Drone attack injured citizens and damaged houses in Sitra - financial press.

- (IR) Launches new wave of missiles at Israel.

- (IR) Security Chief Larijani: Assembly of experts chose new leader in spite of threats to target the assembly.

- (IR) Iran President: This valuable choice is manifestation of Iran's will to strengthen national unity - financial press.

- (IR) At least 32 Bahrainis injured in Iranian drone attack on Sitra Area - State News Agency.

- (KU) Kuwait: Intercepted 3 ballistic missiles and 2 drones on Sunday.

- (KU) Kuwait Army: Currently intercepting missiles, drones - financial press.

- (KU) US CENTCOM: US National guard soldier died in health incident in Kuwait.

- (KU) Kuwait Petroleum Co. declared force majeure as a precaution; cited statement made on Saturday – financial press [update].

- (QA) Qatar PM says will continue talking to Iran, will continue trying to seek de-escalation – Sky News interview.

- (QA) Qatar armed forces intercepted missile attack - statement.

- (UAE) UAE says air defense systems currently responding to missile threat - financial press.

- (UAE) Fire breaks out in UAE's Fujiarah oil industry zone resulting from debris falling, no injuries reported - financial press.

- (IL) Hezbollah hit Israeli helicopter in East Lebanon - financial press.

- (IL) IDF Identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.

- (IQ) Attacks targets US military base near Erbil Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan - financial press.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 -5.9%; ASX 200 -2.9%; Hang Seng -2.0%; Shanghai Composite -0.8%; Kospi -6.6%.

Equity S&P500 Futures -1.9%; Nasdaq100 -1.9%; DAX -0.9% FTSE100 -1.2%.

EUR 1.1561-1.1507; JPY 158.90-157.80; AUD 0.7030-0.6956; NZD 0.5901-0.5849.

Gold -1.4% at $5,099/oz; BTC +0.3% at $67,352, Crude Oil +17.5% at $107.69/bbl; Copper -0.8% at $5.7620/lb.