Norway Core CPI jumps to record high – Focus on upcoming Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions next week

Notes/observations

- Economic data reinforced the diverging issue of low growth and persistent core inflation across the Euro Zone. Sweden GDP indicator flat M/M and declined Y/Y. Italian Industrial Production registered 4th straight contraction and Norway May Core CPI hit a record high. Worth noting that yesterday Euro Zone Q1 GDP was revised into a contraction, following a stagnate Q4. Two weeks ago, Germany Q1 revision put the country into a technical recession.

- European bourses move tentatively lower due to the macro focus of upcoming Fed and ECB decisions next week. Current consensus for FOMC to hold target range steady and ECB to hike by 25bps. The debate between whether current tightening is enough (given policy lag and hikes so far) and continuing sticky core CPI to be given one last catalyst on Tues, with the release of US May CPI, just one day ahead of Fed's decision.

- Surprise hikes from Australia’s RBA and Canada’s BOC earlier in the week have market participants questioning outcome of Fed decision, but CME futures still price 75% of a pause on Wed.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 out-performing at +2.0%. EU indices are flat to mixed. US futures are -0.1. Gold -0.2%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent +0.3%, WTI +0.3%, TTF +4.3%; Crypto: BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.1%.

Asia

- China May CPI Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e; PPI Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.3%e.

- China Economic Advisor: PBOC should cut rates to boost the economic recovery and reduce finance burdens for private firms.

- BOJ Gov Ueda testified that would strive to achieve well-balanced policy. April Quarterly report projection was for CPI to slow in latter half of current FY. To scrutinize various data and carefully examine the price outlook in producing next quarterly forecasts in July.

Europe

- Bank of France: Sees Q2 GDP growth of 0.1%.

- British Chambers of Commerce (BCC): UK economy likely to avoid a recession but sputter through “anemic” growth in the year ahead.

- Turkey Pres Erdogan confirmed pick of Hafize Gaye Erkan as Central Bank (CBRT) Governor (replaced Kavcioglu).

Americas

- White House announced the Atlantic Declaration for a 21st century US/UK economic partnership. Faced new challenges to international stability from authoritarian states such as Russia, China. President Biden to request Congress add UK as 'domestic source' within Title III of Defense Production Act.

- US Sec of State Blinken previously delayed Beijing trip now in planning for week of Jun 12th (next week).

- Former Pres Trump confirmed Biden Administration has informed his attorneys that he had been indicted on his handling of classified documents and obstruction of justice; Charges include under the Espionage Act; To be summoned to appear at the Miami Federal Courthouse on Tuesday, Jun 13th.

- Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Beaudry stated that recent April data tipped balance for Canada rate hike; demand had more momentum than expected.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.03% at 460.58, FTSE -0.08% at 7,593.36, DAX -0.19% at 15,959.55, CAC-40 -0.10% at 7,214.47, IBEX-35 0.00% at 9,338.47, FTSE MIB -0.01% at 27,272.00, SMI -0.19% at 11,287.20, S&P 500 Futures -0.16%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened lower across the board but turned around to trade mixed with an upward bias after a couple of hours of trading; utilities and consumer discretionary sectors among the better performers; sectors inclining to the downside include financials and real estate; Network International to be acquired by Brookfield; Royal Mail gets CMA approval to divest its Integris and Finance businesses; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Shoe Zone [SHOE.UK] +8.0% (trading update; notes strong early summer season), Edenred [EDEN.FR] +0.5% (to be added to CAC40).

- Energy: Orsted [ORSTED.DK] +3.5% (analyst action - raised to Neutral at Oddo Securities).

- Financials: Amigo Holdings [AMGO.UK] +146% (disposal).

- Healthcare: Fresenius Medical Care [FME.DE] -2.5% (analyst action - retierated at Underweight at JPMorgan Chase).

- Industrials: Croda International [CRDA.UK] -13.0% (trading update - cuts FY23 pretax guidance).

- Technology: Network International Holding [NETW.UK] +6.0% (to be acquired for 400p/shr in cash by Brookfield Business Partners in £2.2B deal), Dassault Systemes [DSY.FR] -3.0% (CMD).

Speakers

- UK Govt confirmed to maintain oil and gas windfall tax for the next five years. Noted that oil and gas prices remained higher than historical norms.

- France Fin Min Le Maire stated that 75 manufacturers pledged to lower prices of certain products, starting next month.

- Czech Central Bank (CNB) Vice Gov Zamrazilova saw June inflation in single digits.

- BOJ said to see the need to continue with monetary stimulus and little need to tweak Yield Control at its upcoming Jun meeting. Inflation was stronger than expected but hitting the price target remained out of sight.

- China PBOC Gov Yi Gang noted that it had plenty of room for policy adjustment and would continue a targeted and forceful approach. Economy was still in recovery phase after COVID and expected Q2 GDP growth to be high due to base effects. To use monetary policy tools to keep liquidity reasonably ample. Vowsedto safeguard a stable CNY currency (Yuan) and financial stability.

Currencies/Fixed income

- USD was consolidating its losses in the aftermath of the spike upwards in weekly jobless claims. The US data raising speculation that a peak in US rates was near. Markets nited that data might lessen the prospect of a rate increase next week by the Fed.

- EUR/USD at 1.0760 area with focus on next week’s rate decision. Dealers noted that the upcoming decision with a 25bps hike and the end of reinvestments under the Asset Purchase Program has been well flagged. Focus will be on the rate path going forward particularly the Sept outlook.

- USD/JPY was higher as BOJ Gov Ueda reiterated the central bank's resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose. Pair just below the 140 level by mid-session.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden May Maklarstatistik Housing Prices Y/Y: -13% v -13% prior; Apartment Prices Y/Y: -8% v -10% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: -3.0 v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -12.1% v -3.7% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -10.5% v +2.2% prior.

- (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v2.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v +4.0% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr GDP Indicator M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Household Consumption M/M: +1.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v -2.9% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Private Sector Production M/M: 0.6% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -0.5% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Industrial Orders M/M: +3.0% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -8.0% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Apr Industry Production Value Y/Y: +3.4% v +0.6% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: +0.6% v -0.6% prior.

- (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.3%e.

- (NO) Norway May CPI Underlying M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.3%e (annual pace at a record high).

- (NO) Norway May PPI (including oil) M/M: -8.3% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -23.5% v -15.3% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Apr Current Account (DKK): 35.6B v 33.0B prior; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 26.2B v 9.4B prior.

- (AT) Austria Apr Industrial Production M/M: +0.9% v -3.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.1% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v +0.6%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v +0.8%e.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 75.6K v 86.7K tons prior.

- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.9% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.2% v -4.1%e; Industrial Production NSA (unadj) Y/Y: -10.02% v -3.2% prior.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 2nd (RUB): 17.63T v 17.54T prior.

- (GR) Greece May CPI Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.0% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.5% prior.

- (GR) Greece Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.2% v 0.1% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR390B vs. INR390B indicated in 2026, 2030, 2036 and 2063 bonds.

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €6.5B vs. €6.5B indicated in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 3.637% v 3.460% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.44x prior.

Looking ahead

- (MX) Mexico May Nominal Wages: No est v 9.3% prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.0B in I/L 2033, 2046 and 2050 Bonds.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Trade Balance: No est v -€2.1B prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £5.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£B, £B and £B respectively).

- 06:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave One-Week Auction Rate unchanged at 7.50%.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Jun 2nd: No est v $589.1B prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.6% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -0.2%e v +1.1% prior.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) May Minutes (2 decisions ago).

- 08:00 (IS) Iceland May Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 08:00 (UR) Ukraine Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v -4.7% prior; Y/Y: -13.7%e v -31.4% prior.

- 08:00 (UR) Ukraine May CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 15.4%e v 17.9% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Net Change in Employment: +21.3Ke v +41.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.1%e v 5.0% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -6.2K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +47.6K prior; Participation Rate: 65.6%e v 65.6% prior; Hourly Wage Rate Y/Y: 5.1%e v 5.2% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate: 82.0%e v 81.7% prior.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Fitch on Greece sovereign rating).

- 12:00 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Crop Report.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.3% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.