EU data continues to show resilience, focus on ECB March minutes

Notes/Observations

- Germany Feb manufacturing orders rise.

- UK housing activity remains robust.

- ECB March minutes to be scrutinized for more detailed discussions on decision to increase pace of bond-buying.

Asia:

- PBOC Research Paper said to highlight’s dangers of rising household debt which could damage an economic recovery (Reminder On April 4th PBOC was said to have asked lenders to keep credit supply under control and not allow it to go beyond last year levels)

Coronavirus:

- Total global cases 133.0M (+0.5% d/d); total deaths: 2.89M (+0.5% d/d)

- Germany reportedly to begin bilateral talks with Russia to buy COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik.

Europe:

- ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist): Reiterates favorable financing conditions must be maintained.

Americas:

- Biden administration has put together a new proposal , calling for the world’s biggest businesses to pay levies to national governments based on their sales in each country as part of a deal on a global minimum tax.

- President Biden to unveil executive actions on guns.

- US Commerce Sec Raimondo: there is room for compromise on Biden corporate tax rate proposal.

- FOMC Mar Minute: Indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently although sectors most adversely affected by pandemic remain weak.

- Fed’s Brainard: economic outlook had brightened considerably; still expected it would be some time before Fed hits jobs, inflation goals.

- Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove) saw the economy rebounding but would not be quick to dig ourselves out of jobless hole.

- Fed's Barkin (voter, hawk): biggest economic risk now was supply chain constraints. Saw evidence that inflation pressures are starting to build.

- Senator Manchin (D-WV) op-ed wrote that he would not vote to eliminate or weaken filibuster.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.35% at 435.86, FTSE +0.19% at 6,898.32, DAX +0.19% at 15,205.10 , CAC-40 +0.55% at 6,164.40, IBEX-35 -0.07% at 8,591.00, FTSE MIB +0.15% at 24,777.50 , SMI +0.33% at 11,164.80, S&P 500 Futures +0.28%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly higher but later turned to trade mixed; sectors among those trading higher are materials and technology; while financials and real estate sectors were underperforming; Minds+Machines reaches deal to sell assets to GoDaddy; Anglo American to demerge its thermal coal unit; reportedly private equity interested KPN takeover; focus on Bretton Woods meeting of IMF and World Bank; Germany to debate change in law allowing for uniform lockdown across the country to fight covid; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include ConAgra Foods and Constellation Brands, with Michelin expected to issue strategic outlook ahead of their CMD.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Asos [ASC.UK] -1% (earnings)

- Materials: Johnson Matthey [JMAT.UK] +3% (trading update)

- Industrials: Gerresheimer [GXI.DE] -2% (earnings)

- Technology: Minds + Machines [MMX.UK] +58% (asset sale)

- Telecom: KPN [KPN.NL] +3% (PE firms Stonepeak and EQT reportedly partner on $15B offer for KPN at over €3/shr)

Speakers

- ECB's Knot (Netherlands): Any delay in the EU Recovery Fund would be bad news.

- ECB's Holzmann (Austria) stated that hopeful by end-Q2 there would be possibility to reduce PEPP bond buying purchases. To decide on Q3 purchases at the end of Q2. No need to deviate from capital key in PEPP which was good news. ECB intervention on bond market was successful in avoiding tighter financial conditions.

- ECB's Rehn (Finland): Sees possible spillover from US stimulus and saw recovery strengthening in H2 and into 2022. Ready to re-calibrate PEPP purchases as needed. Stressed that needed a sustainable recovery before moving to exit.

- EU Commission expressed hope that US position on global tax would provide momentum for an agreement by summer.

- Italy Econ Dev Min Giorgetti: Considering extending golden power to auto and steel sectors (*8Note: referes to - state measures to block or manage foreign ownership in strategic businesses )

- Spain Econ Min Calvino stated that govt to cut its 2021 economic forecast.

- Poland Fin Min Koscinski: Domestic economy to show clear recovery in H2. Recovery could face some delay because of the third wave of the pandemic.

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Domestic consumption continued to recover in March.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD was slightly weaker but contained within recent ranges. Greenback near two-week lows amid lower US yields. FOMC minutes reiterated Fed mantra it will be some time before substantial further progress is made on goals. Dealers noted US economy was posed to rebound strongly thanks to a fast vaccine rollout and stimulus but not expected to overheat.

- EUR/USD drifting higher in quiet trade. Germany Factory Orders continued to help boost confidence that the region would rebound sharply into the summer. Dealer noting that upcoming ECB minutes to be scrutinized for more detailed discussions on March's decision to increase pace of bond-buying.

- Euro Area yields were slightly lower as markets digested the most recent ECB stats on QE. Dealers noted that stability of spreads being attributable to slightly increased purchase volumes by the ECB under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9% prior.

- (DE) Germany Feb Factory Orders M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.3%e.

- (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.3B v -€0.3B prior.

- (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 5.9% prior.

- (NO) Norway Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.4% v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0% prior.

- (RO) Romania Q4 Final GDP (3rd reading) Q/Q: 4.8% v 4.8%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v -1.4%e.

- (FR) France Feb Trade Balance: -€5.3B v -€4.2B prior.

- (FR) France Feb Current Account Balance: -€2.6B v -€2.0B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Mar Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 930.5B v 914.2B prior.

- (CZ) Czech Feb National Trade Balance (CZK): 22.5B v 26.2Be.

- (CZ) Czech Feb Industrial Output Y/Y: -2.6% v +0.4%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -11.0% v -5.2% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Industrial Production M/M: 4.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: +3.9% v -0.9%e.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.9B v €1.1Be.

- (DE) Germany Mar Construction PMI: 47.5 v 41.0 prior.

- (SE) Sweden Feb Private Sector Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -3.0% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Feb Industrial Orders M/M: 0.3% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.3% v 8.1% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Industry Production Value Y/Y: 2.4% v 0.7% prior; Service Production Value Y/Y: -3.1% v -3.4% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Feb Household Consumption M/M: % v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: % v -3.8% prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Mar CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9%e; WPI Y/Y: 4.4% v 2.0%e.

- (UK) Mar Construction PMI: 61.7 v 55.0e (2nd month of expansion and highest since Sept 2014)

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3%e.

- (IT) Bank of Italy Mar Balance-Sheet Aggregates: Target2 Liabilities at €515.6B v €466.9B prior; ECB funding to Italian banks: €448.0B v €373.9B prior.

Fixed income Issuance

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.488B vs. €5.0-6.0B indicated range in 2026, 2028 and 2044 bonds.

- Sold €2.469B in 0.0% Jan 2026 SPGB bonds; Avg Yield: -0.289% v -0.250% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 2.40x prior (Mar 4th 2021)

- Sold €2.13B in 0.0% July 2028 SPGB bonds; Avg yield: -0.035% v 0.000% prior, Bid-to-cover: 1.75x v 1.70x prior (Mar 18th 2021)

- Sold €889M in Oct 5.15% 2044 SPGB bond; Avg Yield: 1.056% v 2.353% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.80x v 1.33x prior (Jun 21st 2018)

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €623M vs. €0.5-1.0B indicated range in 0.70% Nov 2033 inflation-linked bonds (SPGBi); Real Yield: -0.908% v -0.906% prior; Bid-to-cover:

- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €10.834B vs. €10.0-11.0B indicated range in 2029, 2031 and 2052 Bonds.

- Sold €2.235B in 0.00% Nov 2029 Oat; Avg Yield: -0.18% v +0.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.65x v 2.03x prior (May 7th 2020)

- Sold €6.569B in new 0.0% Nov 2031 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.00% v -0.21% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 1.79x prior (Aug 6th 2020 under 1.50% May 2031 Oat)

- Sold €2.03B in 0.75% May 2052 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.78% v 0.72% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.33x v 2.10x prior.

- (UK) DMO sold £2.75B in 0.25% July 2031 Gilts; Avg Yield: 0.892% v 0.868% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.97x v 2.75x prior; Tail: 0.1bps v 0.2bps prior.

Looking Ahead

- (CO) Colombia Mar Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -14.6 prior.

- 05:10 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds.

- 05:50 (HU) Hungary Central Bank One-Week Deposit Rate Tender.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 28.5% prior.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Mar CPI M/M: 0.8%e v 0.6%; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 3.8% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4%.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 238.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 214.0K prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v -3.4% prior.

- 07:30 (EU) ECB Account of its Mar 10th meeting (Minutes)

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Mar CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.8% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 680Ke v 719K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.64Me v 3.794M prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Apr 2nd: No est v $577.7B prior.

- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.48B in APF Gilt purchase operation (3-7 years)

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Mar Minutes.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 11:00 (US) Fed’s Bullard.

- 12:00 (US) Fed Chair Powell participates on IMF panel.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-year notes.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 23.3% prior.

- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Heavy Truckometer Index M/M: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 0.25%.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia Mar Performance of Services Index: No est v 55.8% prior.

- 21:30 (CN) China Mar CPI Y/Y: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior; PPI Y/Y: 3.6%e v 1.7% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) RBA Financial Stability Review.

- 23:00 (CN) China to sell 30-year Bonds.