Forex Today: RBNZ’s Orr powers Kiwi, focus on UK politics, US data
|The market mood somewhat soured in Thursday’s Asian trading, as the US President Trump’s impeachment bid strengthened and outweighed the US-China trade optimism seen overnight. Therefore, the US dollar witnessed fresh selling across its main competitors in sync with the drop in Treasury yields and US equity futures. Also, the Asian stock markets ex-Japan declined amid political woes and offered some support to the safe-haven gold. Japanese equities were buoyed by the US-Japan trade deal news.
Amongst the G10 currencies, the Kiwi outperformed and regained the 0.63 handle following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr’s upbeat comments on the economy and monetary policy. The Aussie’s downside was capped by broad USD weakness, as it held marginal gains above 0.6750 levels. The Yen recovered some ground vs. the greenback, as USD/JPY slipped to 107.60 following the overnight surge to near 107.80. The USD/CAD pair also witnessed some losses near 1.3250 amid stabilizing oil prices.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair recovered above 1.0950, but the bias still remains to the downside. The Cable held onto the recovery gains above 1.2350 ahead of the House of Commons session.
Main Topics in Asia
US-China trade updates
US sanctions Chinese firms for allegedly shipping Iranian Oil – WSJ
Senior WH Official: China is "absolutely committed" to cooperating with US on illicit fentanyl curbs
Other key headlines
US President Trump bars senior Iranian and Venezuelan officials/families from entering US
UK PM Johnson: Will not seek an extension to Brexit, even if the conditions of the Benn Bill are met
UK House of Commons Leader Rees-Mogg announces Thursday’s Parliament business
Fed's Kaplan: Feels the US can skate thorough a fragile period of global growth
A majority of the US House now backs impeachment proceedings against Trump - Politico
BOJ trims purchases of 5-10-year JGBs by JPY 30 billion
Japan’s Sugawara: Will firmly negotiate and get results about scrapping US tariffs on Japanese autos
China's 7-day repo rate hits two-month low
RBNZ’s Orr: Unlikely to need ‘unconventional’ monetary policy tools, Kiwi jumps
Key Focus Ahead
The data-dry week for the EUR calendar continues this Thursday, as political and trade headlines dominate and fill in for the absence of the first-tier macro news. However, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence, Eurozone credit growth data and the European Central Bank (ECB) monthly Economic Bulletin will offer some trading incentives. Meanwhile, the UK docket remains data-empty and therefore, the House of Common’s session will be closely eyed amid growing UK political uncertainty.
Later in the NA session, the focus will remain on the US Q2 Final GDP revision, Goods Trade Balance and weekly Jobless Claims, with all dropping in at 1230 GMT. Also, of note remains the speeches by the ECB President Draghi, BOE Governor Carney and Fed official Clarida due later in the American mid-morning.
Further, the geopolitical and trade developments will continue to have significant impact on the market mood.
EUR/USD: On the defensive amid uptick in US yields, eyes Draghi's speech
EUR/USD is operating on slippery grounds, having printed a weakest daily close in over two years on Wednesday, and could drop below 1.09 if the ECB President Draghi defends his recent decision to restart the bond-buying program.
GBP/USD: Well bid ahead of UK’s House of Commons, Carney’s Speech
GBP/USD bounces off 21-day SMA after first-day of the UK’s Parliament showdown. The House leader Jacob Rees-Mogg indicated “an exciting announcement” for Thursday. The UK MPs will progress towards no-confidence motion.
US Second Quarter Final GDP Revision Preview: The consumer is cued
Annualized GDP is the second quarter predicted to be unchanged at 2.0%. Consumer spending driving US growth. Business investment curtailed by trade concerns.
A note on American Presidential impeachment
President Trump has not been impeached. The House has not begun an impeachment inquiry though Speaker Pelosi has announced that is the intention of the Democratic caucus.
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