UK CPI move above BOE target

Notes/Observations

- UK May CPI YoY reading moved above BOE target level for 1st time since July 2019.

- Awaiting the FOMC.

Asia:

- China National Reserve Administration (SRB) stated that it would release reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc (aka base metals) in the near term.

- Japan May Trade Balance: -¥187.1B v -¥77.9Be; Exports Y/Y: 49.6% v 50.9%e; Imports: 27.9% v 26.5%e.

Coronavirus:

- Pfizer noted that shortages of COVID vaccine in Europe were slowing down vaccinations and forcing cuts to younger peoples' access in current hot spots.

Mid-East:

- Israel noted that it had launched airstrikes on Hamas military compounds in Gaza after incendiary balloons were sent into south of Israel (Reminder: on Jun 13th Israel's new prime minister Bennett sworn into office which ended 12 years of Netanyahu's term in office).

Americas:

- Fitch analysis now expected Fed to raise rates in Q4'23 (one year earlier than prior projection).

- Senate Majority leader Schumer (D-NY) said to plan to trigger reconciliation process on Wednesday (Jun 16th).

- Sen Romney (R-UT) was optimistic that at least 10 fellow Republicans would support a bipartisan infrastructure plan.

- Senate Min leader McConnell (R-KY) was hopeful that could move forward with an infrastructure bill that did not touch the 2017 GOP tax law and credibly pay for the spending.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.09% at 459.20, FTSE +0.10% at 7,179.95, DAX -0.21% at 15,696.75 , CAC-40 +0.08% at 6,645.11, IBEX-35 -0.08% at 9,223.00, FTSE MIB +0.05% at 25,750.50, SMI +0.27% at 11,953.74, S&P 500 Futures -0.03%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher but turned around to trade mixed later in the session; sectors among the better performers are financials and consumer discreationary; underperforming sectors include materials and telecom; tech sector under pressure following disappointing results from Oracle; EQT to acquire Solarpack; reportedly Santander looking to offload €1.5B in NPAs; focus on FOMC policy meeting later in day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Centogene and Lennar.

Equities

- Energy: Solarpack Corporación Tecnológica [SLP.ES] +43% (to be acquired), Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] +2% (AGM statement).

- Financials: Swissquote [SQN.CH] +12% (prelim results), Santander [SAN.ES] -1% (to sell non-performing assets).

- Industrials: Renold [RNO.UK] -8% (delays report).

Speakers

- ECB SSM said plan to lift dividend cap in Q4 while extending bank leverage ratio relief by 9 months.

- ECB’s Elderson (Netherlands, SSM member): none of the banks under supervision met all expectations in their self-assessment of climate risk.

- UK Brexit Min Frost reiterated that all options were on the table regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. Not making much progress in talks with EU on issue.

- EU said to have formally lifted travel restrictions for US citizens.

- Russia Central Bank (CBR) official expected annual inflation to slow gradually in Q4.

- Czech Central Bank (CNB) Gov Rusnok expected to see a significant rebound in H2. The next move in rates likely to be a rise.

- Czech Central Banker Benda (hawk) stated that the rate normalization process would need to begin very soon.

- Poland Central Bank Financial Stability Report saw no risks from pandemic; FX loan were the main risk to system.

- Germany IFO Institute updated its economic outlook which cut the 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.3% citing supply bottlenecks and raised the 2022 GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 4.3%.

- China Stats Agency (NBS) noted that the foundation for recovery was not yet consolidated. Govt did have the conditions to keep prices stable in 2021. It noted that the overall employment situation improved and the steady consumption recovery continued. Slowdown in retail sales was mainly due to base effects.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD was slightly mixed ahead of the FOMC rate decision later in the session.

- EUR/USD steady at 1.2125 with little major data releases in the session.

- GBP/USD was higher after UK inflation moved above BOE target level for the 1st time in almost two years. Pair at 1.4110 by mid-session.

Economic data

- (UK) May CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8%e (annual pace above BOE target for 1st time since July 2019); CPI Core Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.5%e; CPIH Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e.

- (UK) May RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e; RPI-X (ex-mortgage interest payments) Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.6%e; Retail Price Index: 301.9 v 301.9e.

- (UK) May PPI Input M/M: 1.1% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 10.7% v 10.6%e.

- (UK) May PPI Output M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.5%e.

- (CN) China May Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.2%e; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 17.8% v 18.0%e.

- (CN) China May Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.4% v 14.0%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 25.7% v 26.3%e.

- (CN) China May YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: 15.4% v 17.0%e.

- (CN) China May YTD Property Investment: 18.3% v 19.5%e.

- (CN) China May Surveyed Jobless Rate: 5.0% v 5.1%e.

- (CZ) Czech May PPI Industrial M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.6%e.

- (UK) Apr ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 8.9% v 12.2%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Labour Costs Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.8% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR360B vs. INR360B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.5B in 2024 and 2031 Bonds.

- (UK) DMO sold £2.5B in 0.625% July 2035 Gilts; Avg Yield: 1.115% v 1.264% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.74x v 2.53x prior; Tail: 0.1bps v 0.2bps prior.

Looking Ahead

- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell new €5.0B in 0% Aug 2031 Bunds.

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.0-1.25b in 3-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Y/Y: No est v -6.5% advance.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB30B in July 2031 OFZ bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 11th: No est v -3.1% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 2.6%e v 3.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v % prior.

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland May CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e v 3.9% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 1.630Me v 1.569M prior; Building Permits: 1.730Me v 1.733M prior (revised from 1.760M).

- 08:30 (US) May Import Price Index M/M: 0.8%ev 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.9%e v 10.6% prior; Import Price Index (ex-petroleum) M/M: 0.5%e v 0.7% prior.

- 08:30 (US) May Export Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 15.2%e v 14.4% prior.

-08:30 (CA) Canada May CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.4% prior; Consumer Price Index: 140.8e 140.3 prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.9%e v +2.8% prior.

- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.147B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-20 years).

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia May Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.5%e v 7.2% prior.

- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged between 0.00-0.25% range; Expected to leave Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER) unchanged at 0.10%.

- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell post rate decision press conference following FOMC Meeting.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May National CPI M/M: 3.8%e v 4.1% prior; Y/Y: 49.5%e v 46.3% prior.

- 17:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Selic Rate Target by 75bps to 4.25%.

- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q1 GDP Q/Q: +0.5%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: +0.9%e v -0.9% prior.

- 20:30 (SG) Singapore May Non-oil Domestic Exports M/M: +6.5%e v -8.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.0% prior; Electronic Exports Y/Y: 16.0%e v 10.9% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China May Swift Global Payments (CNY): No est v 2.0% prior.

- 21:30 (CN) China May New Home Prices M/M: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia May Employment Change: +30.0Ke v -30.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.5%e v 5.5% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +33.8K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -64.4K prior; Participation Rate: 66.1%e v 66.0% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.