Markets rise as US shutdown deal nears

EU mid-market update: Markets rise as US shutdown deal nears; Main chunk of Q3 earnings season now behind us; Tech stocks bounce despite TSMC sales decelerating again.

Notes/observations

- European indices and US futures trade higher as reports suggest a US Senate deal to end the government shutdown, funding key departments through Jan 30th and ensuring federal workers’ backpay. 8 senate democrats backed the bill to push the vote to 60-40 in favor. The development supports risk sentiment and could restore delayed economic data, shaping expectations for a Dec Fed rate cut; Note: The agreement still needs to pass the House before the government can be reopened later this week.

- Oil gains on the optimism and ahead of OPEC, IEA, and EIA reports later this week. Bitcoin rides the risk appetite to $106K.

- UK gilts and eurozone yields rose alongside US Treasuries; German Bund yield 3bps to 2.70%, a fresh 1 month high.

- Sterling steady but vulnerable to wage data tomorrow that could reinforce expectations of a 25bp BOE cut in Dec. UK markets await budget details amid public backlash against Chancellor Reeves and PM Starmer (Budget on Nov 26th).

- ECB said to be beginning a leadership reshuffle as Vice President de Guindos’ term ends in May 2026, prompting Eurozone finance ministers to start the formal replacement process. Former Portuguese finance minister and ultra-dove Centeno — reportedly backed by Lagarde herself — could be emerging as potential candidate for the role, a move that could position him for the ECB presidency when Lagarde, Philip Lane, and Isabel Schnabel complete their terms in 2027.

- Cerebras' CEO in social media post was challenging Nvidia’s GPU dominance by breaking through the long-standing “reticle limit,” which has constrained chip size for decades. Instead of building small, interconnected chips, Cerebras developed wafer-scale processors the size of an entire silicon wafer, allowing unified, ultra-fast computation. Its latest Wafer-Scale Engine 3 (WSE-3) integrates 4 trillion transistors and 900,000 AI cores - 14× more transistors and 2,625× the memory bandwidth of Nvidia’s largest GPU. CEO insists this design eliminates data-transfer bottlenecks.

- Notable corporate news: Diageo shares surge 6.3% as ex-Tesco CEO Dave Lewis named chief executive; Hannover Re lifts 2025 profit target to €2.6B and sets 2026 floor at €2.7B. Pfizer raises Metsera bid to $86.25/shr, while Novo Nordisk withdraws. Permira confirms offer for JTC.

- Asia closed higher with KOSPI outperforming +3.0%. EU indices +1.0-2.1%. US futures +0.4-1.5%. Gold +2.0%, DXY 0.0%; Commodity: Brent +0.8%, WTI +0.9%; Crypto: BTC +4.4%, ETH +6.5%.

Asia

- China Oct CPI Y/Y: +0.2% v -0.1%e [largest rise since Jan]; PPI Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.3%e (37th month of negative readings); CPI M/M: +0.2% v +0.1% prior.

- China halts special port fees for US vessels for one year (as expected, follows announcement from the USTR) - China Transport Ministry.

- China issues measures to enhance private investment; To clean up unreasonable access restrictions for services sector; To increase procurement support so small and medium firms.

- South Korea National Pension Service (NPS) might purchase more domestic equities.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) summary of opinions for Oct 30th policy meeting: Key to future policy decision is whether firms maintain positive wage-setting behavior.

- South Korea Special Prosecutor indicts ex-pres Yoon for abusing his power and 'aiding an enemy state'- Yonhap.

Europe

- EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic: We welcome confirmation given by China's MOFCOM on further simplification of export procedures for Nexperia chips to EU and global clients.

- Italy Econ Min Giorgetti: US tariffs caused Italy less issues than expected.

- Bank of England (BOE) proposes regime for systemic stablecoins; consultation open until Feb 2026.

Americas

- Treasury Sec Bessent: Tariff "dividend" of at least $2,000 could come via the tax cuts passed in President Trump's economic policy bill.

- Senate advances government funding bill to end shutdown by vote of 60 to 40 (as expected, follows record 40-day shutdown) [**NOTE: The agreement still needs to pass the House before the government can be reopened]

- Trump TruthSocial: I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE.

- Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump Admin to withhold billions of dollars in funding for SNAP food assistance - press.

- Trump Admin loses trial over plan to send National Guard troops to Portland; Judge deems the effort to be illegal - press.

- Ninth Circuit Appeals Court final ruling on Trump Admin's troop deployment in Portland still pending, follows US District Judge Immergut issuing a permanent injunction against federalizing Oregon's National Guard troop deployment - press.

- Contractors tap emergency cash amid US government shutdown - FT.

- Pres Trump said to pardon former NYC Mayor Rudi Giuliani - ABC.

Trade

- USTR: Confirms suspension of action in Section 301 investigation of China targeting maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors for dominance (as expected).

- China MOFCOM: China implements measures to exempt Nexperia chips for civilian use; VW China Chief confirms carmakers now receiving chip deliveries following supply halt.

- China MOFCOM: China suspends ban on US-bound shipments of dual-use goods related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials until Nov 27, 2026 - statement.

- China MOFCOM: Adjusts some of the export catalogue of 13 drug-related purcursor chemicals, adding Canada, US, Mexico and 13 precursor chemicals to its targeting list.

- India considers increasing sugar exports up to 1.5Mt in 2025-26.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +1.43% at 572.84, FTSE +1.01% at 9,780.45, DAX +1.93% at 24,011.27, CAC-40 +1.41% at 8,061.99, IBEX-35 +1.46% at 16,116.17, FTSE MIB +2.07% at 43,807.00, SMI +0.87% at 12,403.01, S&P 500 Futures +0.96%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened higher across the board and remained upbeat through the early part of the session; risk appetite supported by progress in ending US government shutdown and deescalation in US-China trade relations; among sectors leading the way higher are technology and materials; lagging sectors include utilities and telecom; Northern Data to combine with Rumble; JTC to be acquired by Premira; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Barrick, Dole and Interpublic.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Diageo [DGE.UK] +7.5% (new CEO).

- Financials: Hannover Re [HNR1.DE] +2.5% (earnings), JTC [JTC.UK] -5.0% (to be acquired).

- Healthcare: Novo Nordisk [NOVOB.DK] +2.5% (will not increase offer for Metsera), AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +1.0% (trial data), Siemens Healthineers [SHL.DE] -1.0% (Siemens said to favor direct spin off of its Healthineers stake through a dividend to investors).

- Industrials: Chemring Group [CHG.UK] -2.0% (trading update).

- Technology: ASML [ASML.NL] +2.5% (TSMC monthly sales decelerate).

- Materials: Salzgitter [SLG.DE] +7.5% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB’s De Guindos (Spain): Current interest rate level is right; Services and wages moving in right direction; Growth positive but still very low.

- Australia RBA Dep Gov Hauser: Policy needs to be restrictive enough to meet goals of RBA - speech.

-Japan PM Takaichi: Confirms will not ditch government primary balance target for FY2025; there are various ways to define national debt, not meant to nullify current primary balance target.

-Fed's Williams (voter) warns strain on lower-income Americans could hurt growth; December meeting would be a balancing act - FT.

-New Zealand PM Luxon: Wants domestic banks to pass on the RBNZ rate cuts at a faster pace-BOJ's Nakagawa: Considering high uncertainties .

remain regarding impact of trade and other, BOJ will make monetary policy decisions as appropriate by continuing to assess data and information that becomes available - speech at Okayama Club in Okayama prefecture.

-Japan PM Takaichi: Hope BOJ guides appropriate monetary policy so Japan sustainably achieve 2% inflation driven not just by cost-push factors but wage growth.

- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Member Dabrowski: I believe we could end cycle of cuts at 3.50% (currently 4.25%).

-(JP) Former BOJ board member Kataoka: Exit from deflation is imminent; Need to firmly use fiscal policy.

Economic data

- (IL) Israel Sept Chain Store Sales M/M: +1.7% v -0.8% prior.

-(JP) Japan Sept Preliminary Leading Index CI: 108.0 v 107.9e; Coincidence Index: 114.6 v 114.5e.

-(NL) Netherlands Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.1% v 2.0%; prior Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.0% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v -2.8% prior.

-(NO) Norway Q4 Consumer Confidence: -3.7% v -4.5 prior.

-(FI) Finland Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.6% prior.

-(NO) Norway Oct CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.0%e; CPI Underlying M/M: 0.6% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.0% prior; PPI (including Oil) M/M: +0.1% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: -6.9% v -2.8% prior.

-(DK) Denmark Sept Current Account (DKK): 38.4B v 29.2B prior.
-(DK) Denmark Oct CPI M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3% prior; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.6% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2% prior.

-(SE) Sweden Sept Household Consumption M/M: 0.3% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.9% prior.

-(SE) Sweden SEB Housing-Price Indicator: 34 v 29 prior.

-(AT) Austria Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v 0.8% prior.

-(CZ) Czech Oct Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.5%e.

-(CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 460.0B v 470.5B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 436.3B v 446.9B prior.

-(EU) Euro Zone Nov Sentix Investor Confidence: -7.4 v -4.0e (below all analysts estimates); Current situation: -17.5 V -16.0 prior; Expectation survey (6-months ahead): 3.3 V 5.8 prior.

-(GR) Greece Oct CPI Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8% prior.

-(GR) Greece Sept Industrial Production Y/Y: +6.8% v -2.8% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- South Korea MOF sells KRW3.0T vs. KRW3.0T indicated in 3-year Bonds.

- Philippines 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bill auction rescheduled to Nov 11th.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Trade Balance: No est v -€3.0B prior.

- 06:00 (NO) Norway announcement on upcoming bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell combined RON1.0B in 2029 and 2033 bonds.

- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.5% prior.

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Oct Official Reserve Assets: No est v $713.3B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (UR) Ukraine Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.9% prior.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.9-7.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (US) WASDE.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes.

- 18:00 (CO) Colombia Oct CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.2% prior.

- 18:00 (CO) Colombia Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.9% prior.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia Nov Westpac Consumer Confidence: No est v 92.1 prior.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 84.5 prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Sept Current Account Balance: ¥2.478TeNo est v ¥3775.8B prior; Adj Current Account: ¥2.234TeNo est v ¥2463.5B prior; Trade Balance B(oP Basis): -¥109.4Be v +¥105.9B prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Bank Lending Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior; Bank Lending (ex-trusts) Y/Y: No est v 4.2% prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Nov Exports 10 Days Y/Y: No est v -15.2% prior; Imports 10 Days Y/Y: No est v -22.8% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Oct BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Oct NAB Business Confidence: No est v 7 prior; Business Conditions: No est v 8 prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Oct Construction PMI: No est v 43.7 prior.

- 21:00 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 2Yr Inflation Expectation: No est v 2.3% prior.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 30-Year JGB bonds.

- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell NT$20B in 30-year Bonds.