FOMC Day

As of this writing 5:10 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Sept. USD is Up at 94.425.

Energies: Sept '18 Crude is Down at 68.20.

Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is Down 11 ticks and trading at 142.20.

Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is 4 ticks Lower and trading at 2816.00.

Gold: The Aug gold contract is trading Down at 1232.00 Gold is 16 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Down-  which is normal but the 30 year Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Down- which is correlated with the US dollar trading Higher.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour Asia is trading Mixed with half the exchanges trading Higher and the other half Lower.  Europe is trading mainly Lower at this hour.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST.  This is major.
• Final Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM.  This is major.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
• Construction Spending is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
• ISM Manufacturing Prices is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
• Crude Oil Inventories is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is major.
• Total Vehicle Sales.  This is major.
• FOMC Statement is out at 2 PM EST.  This is major.
• Federal Funds Rate is out at 2 PM EST.  This is major.

 Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract.  The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 8:30 AM EST.  The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low.  If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8:30 AM ESTand the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 8:30 AM and the YM was moving Higher at the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better.  This represented a shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $31.25.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform - Click on an image to enlarge it.

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral as the USD and the Bonds were Higher but Crude and Gold were trading Lower with no clear correlation amongst the futures.  Given that today is FOMC Day we will maintain a Neutral bias.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. 

Commentary

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as we didn't see any clear sign of correlation amongst the instruments we track.  A Neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction and often does.  The Dow closed Higher by 108 points and the other indices gained ground as well.  Given that today is FOMC Day we will maintain a Neutral bias as historically the markets have never shown any sense of normalcy on this day.  Do we think the Fed will hike?  No.  It is the middle of summer with many people on vacation and spending money.  We don't think it would serve the Fed to hike in the middle of summer spending season, besides that there's no press conference scheduled and that is usually a telltale sign.

On Thursday, April 5th we had the honor and privilege to be interviewed by David Lincoln on his You Tube channel.  David is a floor trader for the options markets.  If you listen to this interview, you will enjoy it.  To view the interview go to:

Just so you understand, Market Correlation is Market Direction.  It attempts to determine the market direction for that day and it does so by using a unique set of tools. 

As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc. Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is Neutral.   Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.

As I write this the crude markets are Lower and the S&P is trading Lower. This is not normal.  Crude and the markets are now reverse correlated such that when the markets are rising, crude drops and vice-versa. Yesterday September Crude dropped to a low of $68.48.  It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $68.00 a barrel and resistance at $71.00.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.  Please note that the front month for crude is now Sept.  Last month OPEC met once again to cut production but the price of crude is starting to climb.  Whereas prior to the production cuts the ceiling was in the 50 dollar range, it is now in the 70 plus dollar range.  The question is if whether this is temporary or something more permanent.  As an update to this the non-OPEC countries have come to an agreement to unilaterally cut production across the board and this has served to temporarily raise crude prices.  We'll have to see if and how long this lasts...

If trading crude today consider doing so after 10:30 AM EST when the inventory numbers are released and the markets gives us better direction

Crude Oil Is Trading Lower

Crude oil is trading Lower and the S&P is Lower. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading. Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.