Focus on Asia tech earnings, Indonesia equities down 10% again

Asia Market Update: Focus on Asia tech earnings; Indonesia equities down 10% again; Iran conflict fears see GLD, SLV hold record highs with WTI crude >$64.

General trend and developments

-Chipmaker Hynix stock higher +2.3% on the back of a doubling of Q4 Net profits, with the company overtaking rival Samsung’s profits for the first time. Samsung itself saw 2026 Capex to rise “sharply“ but its shares fell -1% despite guiding 2026 HBM sales to more than triple and beating Net and Rev estimates for Q4.

-Indonesia equities trading halted again, with stocks eventually falling -10% on a second day of selling following the interim index freeze announced by MSCI yesterday on threat of downgrade to Frontier Market status due to transparency concerns.

-Aussie dollar +0.6% to nearly 71c on RBA rate hike bets next week. approaching 2023 highs.

-Japan outright bond auction saw 10-25 year total bids: ¥350.0B v only ¥95.0B offered to be purchased by the BOJ.

-WTI crude back above $64/bbl and Silver & Gold held record levels on Iran conflict fears with neither side backing down and kinetic action increasingly seen likely.

-UK PM Starmer met with Pres Xi in Beijing to consumate their planned closer relationship going forward.

-TSLA +9% after-hours on better-than-expected Q4 earnings and Rev and future growth narratives, including robotaxi expansion, the upcoming Optimux V3 robot and energy storage.
META +6% after-hours with strong earnings and Rev as well as AI-driven ad growth offsetting high capex spend.

-MSFT -6% after-hours even as Azure and cloud services revenue +39% y/y with Rev guidance beating mid-point.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to 0.3% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Fri Jan 30th JP Jan Tokyo CPI, JP Dec Industrial Prod & Dec Retail Sales, AU Q4 PPI, (Fri eve DE, EU Q4 Flash GDP, US Dec PPI).

-Sat Jan 31st China Jan NBS Manufacturing PMI, KR Jan Exports.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Jan 19th Australia, India.

-Wed Jan 28th Malaysia early close at 12:30pm local time.

-Thu Jan 29th Malaysia.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- (AU) ASX 200 opens -0.2% at 8,915.

- (AU) Australia Q4 Export Price Index Q/Q: 3.2% v -0.9% prior.

- (AU) Australia to probe fabricated structural steel safeguards - Press.

- (NZ) New Zealand Dec Trade Balance (NZD): +0.1B v -0.3B prior.

- (NZ) New Zealand sells total NZ$450M vs. NZ$450M indicated in 2031, 2033 and 2051 bonds.

- (NZ) New Zealand Jan ANZ Business Confidence: 64.1 v 73.6 prior.

China/Hong Kong

- (HK) Hang Seng opens -0.7% at 27,627.

- (CN) Shanghai Composite opens 0.1% at 4,155.

- (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY354B; Net injects CNY144B v injects CNY14B prior.

- (CN) PM Starmer and China Pres Xi comments in Beijing.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens -0.1% at 53,301.

- Japan Jan 1-10 Exports Y/Y: +26.3%; Imports +3.6%.

- System failure said to disrupt foreign exchange transactions at 140 credit unions across Japan - Jiji.

Korea

- Kospi opens +1.4% at 5,243

- South Korea Industry Min to visit DC on Trump's threats to raise tariffs against South Korea goods, Industry Min Kim Jung-kwan was scheduled to arrive in the US late Wed - Ministry statement.

- Canada and South Korea sign nonbinding MoU to bring South Korean auto manufacturing and investment to Canada - Canadian press (update).

Other Asia

- (SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) quarterly monetary policy statement: maintains monetary stance; leaves policy unchanged.

- (IN) India Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.8% v 5.9%e.

- (IN) India PM Modi: India will continue with next generation reforms, in 'times to come'.

- (IN) India and EU have completed free trade talks on financial services - press.

- (IR) Iran Adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei: Any military action from US will lead to Iran targeting US and Israel and those who support them - X post.

- (IR) According to X post by CNN reporter, Trump weighing 'major' new strike on Iran; Trump has NOT made final call on how to proceed with Iran - Press.

- (ID) Indonesia said to plan debt switch for govt bonds on Jan 29th, relates to 2026, 2028, 2031 and 2064 bonds - financial press.

- (ID) Indonesia bourse -5% on top of yesterday's fall following MSCI interim freeze.

- (ID) Indonesia Fin Min: Equity market drop is due to temporary shock; No problem with Indonesia's economic fundamentals.

- (HK) HKMA leaves base rate unchanged at 4.00% (as expected), tracking the Fed - update.

- (PH) Philippines Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.7%e.

- (TH) Thailand sells THB15.0B in 1.77 year bonds: Avg Yield: 1.2284%; bid-to-cover: 3.67x.

- (TH) Thailand Dec ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: 2.5% v -0.4%e.

North America

- *(US) Pres Trump: A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.

- (US) FOMC leaves target range unchanged between 3.50-3.75%; as expected; inflation remains somewhat elevated; omits language on downside risks to employment having risen; Waller and Miran dissent for 25 bps cut.

- (US) DOE Crude: -2.3M v +1Me; Gasoline: +0.2M v +1Me; Distillate: +0.3M v -1.5Me.

- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) leaves interest rates unchanged at 2.25%; as expected.

- (US) Treasury $30B 2-year FRN auction draws 0.099% v 0.190% prior, BTC 3.16x v 3.63x prior.

- (US) Dept of Energy will announce new measures to aid the nuclear fuel supply chain - press.

- (US) Trump administration said planning to unveil TrumpRX website on Fri - press.

- (US) NY Fed takes $1.1B (prior: $1.3B) in RRP program at 3.50%; 5 participating and accepted counterparties.

- (US) Nvidia calls on Congress to reauthorize the National Quantum Initiative - press.

- (US) Reportedly White House to gather banking and crypto industry executives to discuss stalled crypto legislation.

- (US) US Pres Trump: I am pleased to nominate Colin McDonald to serve as the first ever Assistant Attorney General for National FRAUD Enforcement - Truth Social.

- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 23rd: -8.5% v 14.1% prior.

- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem: US trade policy has become more unpredictable in recent weeks; It's never easy to manage uncertainty - post rate decision press conference.

Europe

- (EU) ECB €27M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €21M prior; €2.5T parked in deposit facility vs. €2.5T prior.

- (EU) Energy Commissioner Jorgensen: US Greenland threats are a wake up call for EU on energy.

- (RU) Russia Dec PPI M/M: -1.6% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.3% v -1.1% prior.

- (UK) PM Starmer: UK and China will have to manage differences - comments from Beijing.

-(UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index +0.9% at 2,016 points.

- (DE) Germany Econ Ministry cuts 2026 GDP growth from 1.3% to 1.0%; Cuts 2027 GDP growth from 1.4% to 1.3%.

- (FR) France Pres Macron: Reiterate support for Greenland; Back reinforcement of defense position in Arctic region.

- (IE) Ireland Dec Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.4% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v 2.1% prior.

- (CH) Swiss govt: Planning 0.8ppt increase to VAT over 10 years from 2028, which needs Parliamentary approval and plebiscite; Govt will add CHF31B to defense & security budget.

- (DK) Denmark Foreign Min: Denmark, Greenland and US met today to discuss arctic security and respect for Denmark's "Red lines".

- (HU) Hungary Jan Business Confidence: -11.5 v -7.9 prior.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.1%; ASX 200 -0.1%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.0%; Kospi +0.6%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%; DAX -0.2%; FTSE100 +0.6%.

EUR 1.1994-1.1952; JPY 0.6545-0.6517; AUD 0.7094-0.7021; NZD 0.6093-0.6044.

Gold +2.6% at $5,559/oz; BTC -0.9% at $88,298, Crude Oil +1.5% at $64.15/bbl; Copper +5.1% at $6.3027/lb.