Eurozone Mar CPI surges to record high

EU Mid-Market Update: Euro Zone Mar CPI surges to record high; focus on US jobs report for hints of any aggressive rate hikes.

- Euro Zone flash CPI at a fresh record high at 7.5%(move echoes the various national inflation prints in region).

- Major European Mar Manufacturing PMI revised lower in final readings but stay in expansion territory.

- Focus on upcoming US jobs report; Markets to gauge whether it could prompt FOMC on a potential 50bp hike in May.

- Central bank focus shifting to fighting inflation than supporting growth.

- Russia and Ukraine talks continuing.

Asia

- China Mar Caixin PMI Manufacturing registered its 1st contraction in 3 months and lowest since 2020 (48.1 v 49.9e).

- Australia Mar Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed 22nd month of expansion (57.7 v 57.3 prelim).

- Japan Mar Final PMI Manufacturing confirmed its 14th consecutive expansion (54.1 v 53.2 prelim.

- Japan Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: 14 v 12e; Manufacturing Outlook: 9 v 10e.

- Japan Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index: 9 v 8e; Non-Manufacturing Outlook: 7 v 8e.

- Japan Fin Min Suzuki reiterated stance that FX stability was important, and sharp moves in FX were undesirable (in line); BOJ had an inflation target, not a FX target.

- Possibility of PBOC cutting the RRR this month has risen on the back of policy signal that more support may be launched soon.

- New RBA Dep Gov Bullock has been appointed replacing Debelle.

- Most of China city of Shanghai’s 26m residents remain in lockdown to stop the spread of Covid (note: official numbers show local cases falling for a 2nd day).

Russia/Ukraine

- Russia/Ukraine negotiations are set to restart on Friday.

- European gas buyers have gone through the deadline where they’re expected to start paying for gas in rubles.

Americas

- President Biden: Putin's war is imposing costs on Americans and its allies; Understands pain at gas pump. Called on allies to release 30-50M barrels of oil; The SPR release could cut gasoline prices by 10-35 cents per gallon but would depend on how much our allies released from reserves.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.38% at 457.60, FTSE +0.36% at 7,542.64, DAX +0.21% at 14,444.76, CAC-40 +0.36% at 6,683.65, IBEX-35 +0.82% at 8,514.50, FTSE MIB +0.52% at 25,151.00, SMI -0.11% at 12,148.22, S&P 500 Futures %].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed but later moved to trade modestly positive; sectors among those leading higher are financials and consumer discretionary; sectors inclined to the downside include technology and real estate; Cyprus closed for holiday; Yit sells its Russia business to Etalon; Randall & Quilter receives takeover offer by Brickell; focus on NFP data release later in the day; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Dominion Energy.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Sodexo [SW.FR] -7.5% (earnings).

- Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] +4% (said to have booked some gas transit capacity for Yamal-Europe pipeline for Apr 1st).

- Financials: Randall & Quilter [RQIH.UK] +11.5% (offer to be acquired).

- Healthcare: Stratec [SBS.DE] +17% (attracts PE interest).

Speakers

- Russia Central Bank (CBR) said often restrictions on FX transfers abroad for individuals to $10,000 from $5,000 per month, but measures did not apply to residents and non-residents from countries that imposed sanctions against Russia over Ukraine.

- According to Proekt investigation, Russian Pres Putin constantly accompanied by medical team in his trips, including doctor specializing in thyroid cancer.

Currencies/Fixed income

- FX market were relatively quiet with focus on upcoming US jobs report; Markets to gauge the data whether it could prompt FOMC on a potential 50bp hike in May.

- Safe-haven demand remained in focus with Russia and Ukraine talks continuing.

- EUR/USD at 1.1060 area despite Euro Zone flash CPI at a fresh record high. ECB has been vocal in noting that inflation remained around the 2% target under all scenarios for the 2024 period.

- USD/JPY at 122.50 in the aftermath that BOJ to step up JGB bond buying in April to maintain its yield control target.

Economic data

- (FI) Finland Feb House Price Index M/M: 1.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1% prior.

- (RU) Russia Mar PMI Manufacturing: 44.1 v 42.0e (2nd straight contraction).

- (SE) Sweden Mar PMI Manufacturing: 57.3 v 57.8e (22nd month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5%e.

- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.9% prior.

- (FR) France Feb YTD Budget Balance: -€37.6B v -€15.9B prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 2.0% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.8% v 5.9% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Mar Manufacturing PMI: 58.4 v 59.3e (20th straight expansion).

- (TR) Turkey Mar PMI Manufacturing: 49.4 v 50.4 prior (1st contraction in 10 months).

- (PL) Poland Mar PMI Manufacturing: 52.7 v 53.1e (21st month of expansion).

- (HU) Hungary Mar Manufacturing PMI: 57.6 v 52.0e (12th straight expansion).

- (HU) Hungary Jan Final Trade Balance: -€0.2B v -€0.2B prelim.

- (ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.2 v 55.7e (14th month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 64.0 v 61.0e (20th straight expansion).

- (CZ) Czech Republic Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.7 v 55.3e (19th straight expansion but lowest since Nov 2020).

- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment Index: 50.7 v 47.8 prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 93.1K v 102.1K tons prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Manufacturing PMI: 55.8 v 57.0e (21st month of expansion but lowest reading since Jan 2021).

- (FR) France Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 54.7 v 54.8 prelim (confirmed 16thmonth of expansion).

- (DE) Germany Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 56.9 v 57.6 prelim (confirmed 21st month of expansion but lowest since Sept 2020).

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final Manufacturing PMI: 57.0 v 57.0 prelim (confirmed 21st month of expansion).

- (GR) Greece Mar Manufacturing PMI: 54.6 v 57.8 prior (13th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Mar PMI Manufacturing: (19th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.0% v 2.1%e.

- (PL) Poland Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 3.2% 2.4%e; Y/Y: 10.9% v 9.8%.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 25th (RUB): 15.34T v 16.17T prior.

- (NG) Nigeria Mar PMI Manufacturing: 54.1 v 57.3 prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 7.5% v 6.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar Absa Manufacturing PMI: 60.0 v 58.3e (8th month of expansion).

- (DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 62.1 v 50.8 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: No est v $47.5B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 4.1%e v 18.4% prior.

- (US) Mar Total Vehicle Sales data.

- (EU) China-EU Summit.

- (PT) ECB's Centeno (Portugal).

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.2B in I/L 2033, 2038 and 2046 Bonds.

- 05:45 (ES) ECB's de Cos (Spain).

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v -5.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell OLO Bonds.

- 06:00 (IE) ECB's : Makhlouf (Ireland).

- 06:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Ohlsson.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 8.0%e v 9.0% prior.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Mar 25th: No est v $B prior.

- 07:45 (US) Mar CBIZ Small Business Employment Index: No est v -0.09% prior.

- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -45.3B prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: -4.9%e v -7.2% prior.

- 08:00 Norway Finance Ministry White Paper on Sovereign Wealth Fund.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:30 (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +490Ke v +678K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +496Ke v +654K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +32Ke v +36K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.7%e v 3.8% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.2% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%e v 62.3% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.5%e v 5.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.7e v 34.7 prior.

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.6 prior.

- 09:05 (US) Fed's Evans.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing PMI: No est v 56.6 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Mar Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 59.0e v 58.5 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 59.0e v 58.6 prior; Prices Paid: 80.0e v 75.6 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: 1.0%e v 1.3% prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.0 prior.

- 11:00 (PE) Peru Mar CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Total Remittances: $3.9Be v $3.9B prior.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Moody's Sovereign Credit Rating on Spain).

- 11:30 (MX) Mexico Mar PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.0 prior.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -22.6% prior.

- (IT) Italy Mar Budget Balance: No est v -€4.2B prior.

- 12:00 (CH) SNB’s Maechler.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: $9.7Be v $4.1B prior; Total Exports: $31.2Be v $22.9B prior; Total Imports: $21.4Be v $18.9B prior.

- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index: 51.5e v 55.0 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: 50.0e v 50.5 prior.