Can they defend against falling AI enthusiasm and keep support from derailing?

EU mid-market update: Nvidia to report after US close; Can they defend against falling AI enthusiasm and keep support from derailing?

Notes/observations

- Overall sentiment waits to pivot on Nvidia earnings after the close, specifically guidance and any clues for if demand for AI is waning.

- European session revolved around UK inflation reading, the last reading before govt budget next week. The headline YoY came in above estimates but the lower-than-expected services component and inline core meant that traders increased rate cut bets for BOE’s Dec decision and into 2026 (63bps vs 59bps before data). Headline still way above target at 3.6% vs 2.0% BOE target.

- No market impacting political news overnight or from Trump specifically. Trump hosted White House dinner for Saudi Arabia leader, and signed deals with them on AI and nuclear industries. House voted to release the entire Epstein files with near-unanimous vote of 427-1.

- Nvidia results tonight is the first real crash-test of $0.5T+ Blackwell + Rubin order book, as the market flips from “can they sell it?” to “can customers actually finance, power, and earn ROI on all this AI infra?” Consensus still bakes in monster numbers - mid-50s billions in revenue, ~60% Y/Y Data Center growth, mid-70s GMs and a funding-gap world where AI capex drives 40–50% annual EPS and FCF growth into the back half of the decade - even as Oracle’s widening CDS makes the rising cost of that capex impossible to ignore.

- The real question for this NVDA print is whether even a clean beat, mid-70s GM guide and reassuring Rubin/Blackwell, China/B30A, and customer-health commentary are enough to calm AI capex and funding fears, or merely set up a bigger move if credit markets stay nervous.

- Alphabet rose premarket after it launched its leading Gemini 3 Pro frontier model across core Google products (Search AI Mode, Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI, Antigravity), highlighting stronger intent understanding, PhD-level reasoning, and robust traction with 2B AI Overviews MAUs and 650M Gemini MAUs. Some worry this could be the last big 2025 AI catalyst for the stock, but rising Gemini usage, AI-boosted search and ad performance, new agentic and cloud wins continue to support Alphabet into 2026's AI race.

- Major FX pairs and EU bond yields are muted.

- Looking out for FOMC minutes at 14:00 ET.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -0.6%. EU indices +0.1% to -0.4%. US futures +0.1-0.3%. Gold +1.1%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent -0.7%, WTI -0.7%; Crypto: BTC +0.0%, ETH +1.2%.

Asia

- China govt reissues notice to halt Japanese seafood imports; China MOFCOM: On Japanese seafood imports: Even if Japan aqautic products are exported to China, there will be no market; China said to expand ban to Japan beef exports.

- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) leaves Bi rRate unchanged at 4.75%; As expected.

- Japan's total economic stimulus package said to be >¥20T; Supplementary budget component of the total budget expected to be ~¥17T

- India said to consider raising the sugar and ethanol prices.

Europe

- Netherlands Econ Min Karremans: Suspended intervention at Nexperia as sign of goodwill (restores control back to China).

- Iceland Central Bank (Sedibank) cuts 7-Day Term Deposit Rate by 25bps to 7.25%.

- Brussels said to plan a "minerals stockpile centre"; Aiming to stop US 'snapping up' supplies - FT.

- Chancellor Reeves reportedly to shield small businesses from tax rises at budget.

- UK govt said to be lining up bankers for British Steel sale - FT.

- EU Commission said Italy 2025 GDP growth likely at 0.4% v 0.7% prior forecast.

- Chancellor Reeves has reportedly asked CMA to conduct a market study into private dentistry costs and practice.

Americas

- Treasury Sec Bessent: Can safely say that he will not be the Fed's Chair; Confirms that Trump will announce next Chair likely before Christmas; Trump will meet with three Fed Chair candidates post-Thanksgiving.

- Pres Trump: We MUST have one Federal Standard for AI instead of a patchwork of 50 State Regulatory Regimes; Suggests putting federal AI rules in the annual defense spending bill (NDAA).

Trade

- Goldman Sachs' Pres Waldron: US likely to pull back on more tariffs - comments at Singapore New Economy Forum (NEF).

- US announces MOU with Saudi Arabia on nuclear cooperation and critical minerals framework.

- Pres Trump signs agreements on AI with Saudi Arabia - comments at White House dinner.

- Swiss top trade negotiator Artieda: Switzerland relieved to reach trade deal with US.

Conflict/tensions

- Russia Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov: No innovations on conditions for ending war in Ukraine.

- Poland temporarily closes Rzeszow and Lublin airports following army scrambling of jets after Russian strikes on Ukraine.

- Poland Foreign Min Sikorski: Rail sabotage was act of state terrorism; Poland will respond in coming days.

- Trump Admin said to be working on new 28-point plan with Russia to end Ukraine war - Axios.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.01% at 561.92, FTSE +0.14% at 9,566.14, DAX +0.13% at 23,202.15, CAC-40 -0.25% at 7,947.79, IBEX-35 +0.11% at 15,841.31, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 42,668.00, SMI +0.52% at 12,537.12, S&P 500 Futures +0.29%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened mixed with a negative bias which became more prominent as the session wore on; continued concerns around tech valuations seen weighing on risk appetite; among sectors in the green are energy and communications services; sectors inclinded to the downside include utilities and technology; Aptose to be acquired by Hanmi; reportedly Unicredit considering acquiring BPER; focus on release of FOMC minutes later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Nvidia, Lowe’s, Target and Williams-Sonoma.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Jet2 +3.5%.

- Consumer staples: Interparfums -7.5%.

- Energy: SMA Solar Technology +7.0%.

- Industrials: NKT +13.0%, Rotork +3.0%, Kapsch -2.5%, Deutz +3.0%.

- Technology: Zoo Digital +19.0%.

- Utilities: Endesa -2.5%.

Speakers

- Japan Fin Min Katayama: No discussion on FX; Meeting was held with perspective of maintain close coordination between govt and BOJ - press conference after meeting BOJ Gov Ueda.

- Former Singapore Central Bank (MAS) Gov Menon: Public debt worries me a lot.

- Korea Fin Min Koo: Expects 2025 GDP growth >0.9%; To prepare incentives for long-term stock investors.

- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Gov Warjiyo: Rupiah remains under control amid pressure; Global market uncertainty has risen again amid temporary US govt shutdown - pre-rate decision press conference.

- Chancellor Reeves: At the budget next week I will take the fair choices to deliver on the public’s priorities - post inflation data comments.

Economic data

- (UK) OCT CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.5%E; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.4%e; CPI Services Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.6%e; CPIH Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.8%e; RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e; RPI-X (ex-mortgage interest payments) Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.4% prior; Retail Price Index: 407.4 v 407.6e.

- (UK) OCT PPI INPUT M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.7%E; PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Oct CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.7%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e.

- (AT) Austria Oct Final CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0% prelim.

- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedibank) cuts 7-Day Term Deposit Rate by 25bps to 7.25%.

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept Current Account Balance: €23.1B v €11.9B prior.

- (IT) Italy Sept Current Account Balance: €3.4B v €4.7B prior.

- (GR) Greece Sept Current Account Balance: -€0.4B v +€1.1B prior.

- (PT) Portugal Sept Current Account Balance: €0.6B v €1.6B prior.

- (UK) Sept ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.1% prior.

- (EU) EURO ZONE OCT FINAL CPI Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E ; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E; CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e.

- (CY) Cyprus Oct CPI Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.2% v 0.0% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- UK DMO sells £4.5B IN 4.75% OCT 2035 GILTS; AVG yield: 4.608% V 4.769% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.84X V 2.78X prior; tail: 0.6BPS V 0.6BPS prior.

- Sweden sells total SEK6.0B vs. SEK6.0B indicated in 2028 and 2035 bonds.

- Denmark sells total DKK3.0B in 2035 and 2052 DGB Bonds.

- India sells total INR190B vs. INR190B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- Japan sells ¥800B VS. ¥800B indicated in 20-year JGB bonds; AVG yield: 2.8090% V 2.6740% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.28X V 3.65X prior (inline with 3.30x 12-month bid-to-cover).

- Japan sells ¥3.2T vs. ¥3.2T indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.7475% v 0.7414% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.71x v 3.35x prior.

- Vietnam Finance Ministry sells total VND9.23T indicated in 5-year and 10-year bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal to sell 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (EU) European Union to sell €3.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ bonds.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Trade Balance: No est v €5.2B prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Property Prices M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.4% prior.

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Sept Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.3% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.7% prior.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 14th: No est v 0.6% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Trade Balance: -$60.7Be v -$78.3B prior; Exports M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Imports M/M: No est v 5.9% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Housing Starts and Permits (dependent on US govt shutdown).

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Sept Trade Balance: -$1.2Be v -$1.7B prior; Total Imports: $6.1Be v $5.9B prior.

- 10:30 (US) DOE Inventories.

- 11:00 (RU) Russia Oct PPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-week bills- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-year bonds.

- 12:45 (US) Fed’s Barkin.

- 12:45 (CA) BOC’s Vincent.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 20-year bonds.

- 14:00 (US) Oct FOMC Meeting Minutes.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Trade Balance: $0.8Be v $0.9B prior; Exports: No est v $8.1B prior; Imports: No est v $7.2B prior.

- 14:00 (US) Fed’s Williams.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories.

- 20:00 (CN) China PBOC Monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Setting: Expected to leave 1-year and 5-year LPR unchanged.

- 20:00 (CN) China Oct Swift Global Payments (CNY-denominated): No est v 3.2% prior.

- 20:30 (JP) BOJ’s Koeda.

- 21:00 (AU) RBA’s Hunte.

- 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Q3 BoP Current Account Balance: $2.0Be v -$3.0B prior.

- 22:00 (JP) Japan Oct Tokyo Condominiums for Sale Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior.