USD/INR Price News: Indian Rupee pares the first weekly loss in three near 82.60 despite RBI’s status quo

• USD/INR grinds lower while keeping the daily loss after RBI’s inaction.
• RBI keeps benchmark Repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, as expected.
• Mixed global growth, Fed concerns prod sentiment in Asia-Pacific zone, putting a floor under US Dollar price.
• Risk catalysts eyed for short-term directions ahead of next week’s FOMC.

USD/INR justifies the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inaction during early Thursday as it reverses the initial losses around 82.60 after the Indian central bank’s monetary policy decision. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) fails to justify the US Dollar’s weakness amid mixed market sentiment.

RBI keeps the benchmark Repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by matching market forecasts after June’s monetary policy meeting. Following the interest rate announcements, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, “We can derive satisfaction that Indian eco and financial sector stand robust in global environment,” The policymaker also added that the path ahead is now somewhat clearer.

On the other hand, fears of global economic slowdown backed by higher rates weigh on the sentiment, even if the mixed Fed concerns and sluggish yields allow markets to remain slightly positive. That said, the latest increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged, propel the USD/INR price even as the US Dollar struggles of late.

Elsewhere, optimism surrounding China and downbeat Oil price allow the USD/INR to consolidate the weekly loss.

A slew of Chinese state banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank cut their benchmark rates. The same raises speculations that the Chinese central bank, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will also cut the rates. Further, China’s Director of China's National Administration of Financial Regulation Li Yunze recently mentioned that the economy is still recovering.

It should be noted that the WTI crude oil prints mild losses near $72.50 while failing to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce, eyes the second consecutive weekly loss.

To sum up, USD/INR justifies the RBI’s inaction by paring weekly gain. However, the quote’s further moves appear limited due to a light calendar and cautious mood ahead of the next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond a two-week-old resistance line, now immediate support around 82.53, keeps USD/INR buyers hopeful of witnessing further upside toward the previous monthly high of around 83.00 round figure.