USD/CHF Price Analysis: Remains in an uptrend, despite trimming weekly gains, below 0.9200
|- Risk-on market sentiment weighs on the USD versus the CHF.
- The USD/CHF falls on the back of overall US dollar weakness.
- USD/CHF: To enjoy considerable gains on a break above 0.9274 – Credit Suisse.
The USD/CHF slides during the New York session, down 0.42%, trading at 0.9191 at the time of writing. Investors' appetite is in risk-on mode, depicted by US stock indices rising between 0.27% and 0.85%, except for the Nasdaq 100, which drops 0.34% at press time.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's performance versus a basket of six peers, drops 0.21%, sits at 93.58, whereas the US T-bond 10-year yield rises one basis point, up to 1.644%, reinforcing the Fed's bond tapering thesis.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Daily chart
In the daily chart, the USD/CHF shows the pair has been under intense selling pressure around the 0.9250 area, which was unsuccessfully tested four times before driving prices lower. However, the upward bias remains in place, as the 100 and 200-day moving averages (DMA's) remain below the spot price, while the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 41 suggests that downward pressure remains in place.
For USD/CHF buyers to resume the upward trend, they need a daily close above the 50-DMA at 0.9213. In that outcome, the pair could push towards the October 18 high at 0.9274 resistance level. A break above the latter would expose crucial resistance zones like the October 12 high at 0.9312, followed by the September 30 high at 0.9368.
On the flip side, Wednesday's price action confirms that sellers remain in charge, but they will need a daily close below 0.9200. Once the break is accomplished, the 100-DMA at 0.9172 would be the first support, immediately followed by the 200-DMA at 0.9139.
USD/CHF: To enjoy considerable gains on a break above 0.9274 – Credit Suisse
According to Credit Suisse Analysts, an upside break above 0.9274, could pave the way for further gains on the USD/CHF:
"With trend-following indicators all still generally pointing to the upside, with the 200-day average still rising and weekly MACD still outright bullish, we look for an eventual break above short.term resistance at 0.9274 to negate the recently highlighted top."
"Whilst our core outlook stays bullish, we cannot rule out further corrective weakness whilst below 0.9274 and more important support if the market does manage to close below 0.9214 is at the 200-day average at 0.9139, which is expected to hold if reached."
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