Pound Sterling trades lower due to escalating BoE dovish expectations
|- The Pound Sterling consolidates near 1.3470 against the US Dollar amid trade tensions between the US and China.
- BoE policymaker Catherine Mann argues against further reduction in interest rates.
- Traders raise bets supporting more than 50 bps rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining year.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades flat around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair flattens even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) faces selling pressure, suggesting weakness in the British currency.
Sterling underperforms on fresh escalation in expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates further this year. BoE dovish expectations accelerated this week after the release of the UK labor market data for the three months ending in August.
The employment data signaled that the jobless rate accelerated and the wage growth slowed down. The Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.8%, the highest level seen since the three-month period ending in March 2021.
According to money market consensus, traders expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 46 basis points (bps) this year.
On the contrary, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Catherine Mann, an outspoken hawk, has argued against lowering interest rates further. Mann didn’t support further monetary expansion, citing that UK labor market conditions are weakening only at a moderate pace. “What has transpired is that the labour market has modestly loosened, but it is not falling off the cliff,” Mann said in an event in Washington on Thursday, Reuters reported.
Additionaly, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill has also argued against reducing interest rates "too fast or too far" amid risks of inflationary pressures remaining sticky. "Must guard against cutting too far or too fast as there is a risk that self-sustaining inflationary dynamics embed in expectations" Pill said in a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference 2025 in London during London trading hours on Friday.
On the fiscal front, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves confirmed that the government is not going to increase the wealth tax in the upcoming Autumn Budget scheduled next week. However, she clarified that there would be further tax raises and cuts in public spending.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.11% | 0.02% | -0.43% | -0.06% | 0.30% | 0.00% | -0.45% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | 0.15% | -0.33% | 0.08% | 0.47% | 0.12% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.44% | -0.11% | 0.30% | -0.04% | -0.53% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | 0.33% | 0.44% | 0.35% | 0.76% | 0.40% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.08% | 0.11% | -0.35% | 0.37% | 0.06% | -0.44% | |
| AUD | -0.30% | -0.47% | -0.30% | -0.76% | -0.37% | -0.35% | -0.79% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.40% | -0.06% | 0.35% | -0.50% | |
| CHF | 0.45% | 0.34% | 0.53% | 0.05% | 0.44% | 0.79% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Fed dovish bets accelerate amid growing US labor market risks
- The USD is under pressure due to trade frictions between the United States (US) and China, and accelerating Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish expectations on monetary policy for the remaining year.
- At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades near the 10-day low around 98.10.
- Trade relations between the two largest powerhouses of the world are going through a rough patch as Washington has imposed additional 100% tariffs on imports from China against Beijing’s export controls on rare earth minerals.
- Meanwhile, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled later this month in South Korea remains on track. "We are working on a meeting, President Trump will go on meeting with Xi," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday. He added that Washington doesn’t want to “decouple with China”, but it cannot allow “bureaucrats in China to manage the supply chain, and manufacturing process for the rest of the world”.
- Other leaders across the globe have also criticized China for adopting rare earths export control measures. “China’s decision on rare earths is wrong, and dangerous for world economy. I welcome a greater Group of Seven (G7) focus on where we get critical minerals from,” United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said on Thursday.
- Additionally, the speculation for more than 50 basis points (bps) reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) intensified amid growing US labor market concerns has weighed on the US Dollar. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have fully priced in at least a 50-basis-points (bps) rate cut in the remaining year and see a 19.6% chance that the Fed could cut borrowing rates by 75 bps.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling faces pressure near 20-day EMA
The Pound Sterling trades flat 1.3470 against the US Dollar on Friday. The GBP/USD pair struggles to extend its recovery above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3423.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a sideways trend.
Looking down, the August 1 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will act as a key barrier.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
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