Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls seek validation from $1,760 and Fed Chair Powell
|- Gold price remains firmer for the second consecutive day, bounces off 10-DMA, short-term key support.
- US Dollar traces pullback in Treasury bond yields, cautious optimism surrounding China also propels XAU/USD.
- Fed Chair Powell’s first speech after November, hawkish hopes tease Gold sellers.
Gold price (XAU/USD) picks up bids to refresh intraday top near $1,755 heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the precious metal prices cheer the broad US Dollar weakness, as well as cautious optimism in the market. However, anxiety ahead of the all-important speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to test the bulls.
US Dollar Index (DXY) snap a four-day uptrend as it drops to 106.55, down 0.25% intraday at the latest. The Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies traces downbeat US 10-Year Treasury bond yields, down two basis points to 3.72%, to print the latest losses.
The DXY’s latest losses could also be linked to the softer US data as the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 100.2 in November versus 102.2 prior (revised down from 102.5).
Furthermore, China’s multiple measures to ease the strict lockdown in the key areas after witnessing a retreat in the daily Covid infections from a record high seemed to favor the mild risk-on mood. Even so, the world’s second-largest economy kept its Zero-Covid policy intact. Bloomberg reported the reopening of some city buildings in the greater Zhengzhou region, the home of a key iPhone plant. Earlier on Tuesday, the news broke that China's Guangdong province will allow the close contacts of Covid cases to quarantine at home.
While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains even as Wall Street closed mixed while the Asia-Pacific stocks grind higher.
Looking forward, hawkish hopes from Fed’s Powell challenge Gold buyers but a surprise dovish statement might not hesitate to propel the commodity prices beyond the short-term key hurdles. Other than Powell, an early signal for Friday’s United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), namely the ADP Employment Change for November, as well as the second readings of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3), will also be crucial to watch for clear directions.
Technical analysis
Gold price extends bounce off a convergence of the 10-DMA and a three-week-old ascending support line, around $1,747-49 by the press time, to keep buyers hopeful.
However, a downward-sloping trend line from mid-November and bearish MACD signals tease XAU/USD sellers unless the quote crosses the $1,760 hurdle.
Even so, a five-month-old descending resistance line, close to $1,780 by the press time, challenges the Gold buyers.
Alternatively, the XAU/USD’s pullback remains elusive beyond $1,747, a break of which could drag the metal towards the highs marked in September and October, respectively near $1,735 and $1,729.
Overall, the Gold price remains on the bear’s radar unless staying beyond $1,780.
Gold price: Daily chart
Trend: Limited upside expected
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