EUR/USD consolidates near highs as investors brace for US payrolls figures
|- The Euro remains steady near highs with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of the NFP report.
- Downbeat ADP employment data heightened hopes of a Fed rate cut and curbed the US Dollar's recovery on Wednesday.
- A trade deal between the US and Vietnam boosted optimism and added some weight to the safe-haven USD.
The EUR/USD pair is practically flat on Thursday, trading right below 1.1800 at the time of writing, not far from the multi-year highs reached earlier this week. Investors' appetite for risk is fading as optimism about the US deal with Vietnam gives way to caution heading into the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.
In the Eurozone, June's services activity was revised higher to 50.5 from the previously estimated 50.0 reading. These figures reveal that the sector grew again in the last month, following a slight contraction in May. The impact of the data in the Euro, however, has been minimal.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, which boosted hopes that more such deals could be reached ahead of the July 9 deadline. The US Dollar (USD) lost ground against its main peers before picking up again, as other Asian countries complain about the complex tariff negotiations with the US.
Beyond that, Trump continued with his attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell. The US president asked Powell to "resign immediately" in the latest episode of an unprecedented hammering of a Fed chief that puts into question the independence of the central bank and erodes the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency.
The highlight this Thursday is the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which have been moved one day forward this month due to the Independence Day holiday in the US on Friday. Payrolls' data will attract particular interest, following an unexpected decline in the ADP Employment report on Wednesday. The risk is skewed to the downside for the US Dollar as a downbeat reading might practically confirm a Fed interest rate cut in the coming months.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.19% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.17% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.00% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.21% | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.00% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.22% | -0.37% | -0.16% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.23% | 0.07% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Higher hopes of Fed rate cuts keep US Dollar rallies limited
- The ADP Employment report showed a 33K decline in private payrolls in June, against market expectations of a 95K increase. June's reading features the first contraction since the pandemic and has boosted investors' interest in the NFP report, due at 12:30 GMT, which will be read from a monetary policy perspective.
- Wednesday's ADP reading increased bets for Fed rate cuts in the next two months. Futures markets are now pricing in a 25% chance of a July cut, up from 20% before the report, while the odds for at least a 25 basis points (bps) cut in September have risen to 96% from 90%, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool data.
- The market consensus anticipates a 110K increase on Nonfarm Payrolls in June, following a 139K increase in May. The Unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 4.3% from 4.2%, with Average Hourly Earnings growing at a 3.9% yearly rate, unchanged from the previous month.
- Later on, the US ISM Services PMI is expected to show that the sector's activity returned to growth levels in June, with a 50.5 reading from a slight contraction at 49.9 in May.
EUR/USD consolidates gains near 1.1830 highs
EUR/USD is going through some consolidation, having rallied more than 2% in a 10-day rally, reaching its highest levels in nearly four years at 1.1830. The pair has failed to find significant acceptance above 11800, but so far, it remains steady near highs with the US Dollar on the defensive.
The 4-hour chart shows the bullish trend intact, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) well above the 50 level. Immediate support is at Wednesday's low, at 1.1745. Further down, the area between the June 27 low at 1.1680 and the June 26 low at 1.1650 offers significant support for a bearish correction.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.1810 ahead of the June 1 high at 1.1830. Above here, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the July 1-2 reversal is at 1.1850.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Last release: Fri Jun 06, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 139K
Consensus: 130K
Previous: 177K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.
Read more.Economic Indicator
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
The Average Hourly Earnings gauge, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to it when setting interest rates. A high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jul 03, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.9%
Previous: 3.9%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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