USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar edges lower, U.S inflation data next
|The Canadian dollar has dipped on Thursday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3357, up 0.29% on the day. On the release front, the sole Canadian event is a minor housing report. The U.S. will release producer price index reports. PPI is expected to rise to 0.3% and Core PPI is forecast to improve to 0.2%. Unemployment claims is projected to rise to 210 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. posts UoM consumer sentiment and the semi-annual Treasury currency report.
The Federal Reserve was in focus on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes from the March meeting. The Fed left the door open to rate hikes in 2019, provided that economic conditions improved. Some members said that they expected the economy to improve, while others said that rate movement could shift “in either direction based on incoming data and other developments”.
The IMF downgraded economic forecasts worldwide, and Canada was no exception. The IMF lowered its forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%. The report noted that Canada would be a major beneficiary if the U.S and China can hammer out a deal and end their bruising trade war. The IMF also lowered its forecast for global growth, from 3.5% to 3.3%.
Oil prices have dipped on Thursday, but remain close to 5-month highs. Civil unrest in Libya and Venezuela have tightened supplies, as have a cut in supplies by OPEC members. Canada is a major oil producer, so the rise in oil prices has helped bolster the Canadian currency, despite lukewarm Canadian data.
European update – Mixed trading continues
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Thursday (April 11)
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All Day – OPEC Meetings
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8:30 U.S. PPI. Estimate 0.3%
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8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
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8:30 US Unemployment Claims
Friday (April 12)
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10:00 US UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1
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Tentative – US Treasury Currency Report
Open: 1.3319 High: 1.3361 Low: 1.3313 Close: 1.3354
USD/CAD Technical
|
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
1.3125 |
1.3200 |
1.3290 |
1.3383 |
1.3445 |
1.3552 |
USD/CAD posted small gains in the Asian session and the trend continues in European trade
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1.3290 is providing support
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1.3383 is the next resistance line
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Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383
Further levels in both directions:
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Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
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Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662
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