US Dollar Weekly Forecast: Greenback or Greenland?
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UPGRADE- The US Dollar closed its second consecutive week of gains.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls came in below estimates in December.
- Markets’ attention now shifts to upcoming US CPI data and Fedspeak.
The week that was
And we’re off!
Another positive week for the US Dollar (USD) saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) extend a promising start to the new trading year, managing to at least scare away the spectre of being one of the worst-performing currencies during the last year.
In addition to the ongoing strong recovery, the index managed to clear its critical 200-day SMA around 98.85 on Friday, a harbinger of potential extra advances in the relatively short-term horizon.
Adding to the currency's challenges, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have maintained a divided stance on the monetary policy outlook, particularly regarding the pace and extent of rate cuts, which has left investors cautious ahead of the upcoming release of US inflation figures tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 13.
The weekly move higher in the Greenback was only accompanied by an equally firm recovery in US 2-year yields, while the belly and the long end of the curve edged lower in that period.
Consensus around the FOMC remains absent
Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials reflect a growing focus on balancing cooling inflation against emerging labour-market risks, with views diverging on how restrictive policy remains and how quickly rates should be adjusted.
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) said inflation is gradually easing but warned that tariff-related pressures could prove persistent, even as the unemployment rate risks rising from current levels, a sign that labour-market weakness could surface before inflation is fully tamed.
Tom Barkin (Richmond) stressed the need for “finely tuned” policy decisions, noting that while inflation has fallen, it remains above target, and unemployment, though historically low, has begun to edge higher. He added that interest rates are now close to neutral.
By contrast, Stephen Miran (FOMC Governor) argued policy is clearly restrictive and called for aggressive rate cuts this year, suggesting more than 100 basis points of easing may be needed to support growth.
So far, implied rates point to just over 53 basis points of easing by year-end and around a 95% chance of an on-hold decision at the January 28 gathering.
The US labour market keeps cooling…or not?
The Greenback found in the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) another excuse to extend its robust recovery. Indeed, in December, the US economy added just 50K jobs, a tad below consensus, while the Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage inflation, ticked higher to an annualised 3.8%, and the Unemployment Rate challenged analysts’ opinions after receding to 4.4%.
All in all, a steady cooling of the labour market appears bumpy, to say the least, removing fuel from those who expect job creation to stall somewhat and the jobless rate to tick (dramatically?) lower in order to reignite the thirst for lower rates.
Now, about inflation…
Political noise unlikely to weigh on the buck
After news out of Venezuela over New Year’s Eve, markets have once again found themselves digesting geopolitical headlines, this time sparked by renewed comments from Donald Trump about the US potentially “acquiring” Greenland. The remarks have raised fresh questions about US strategic intentions, relations with Europe, and whether any of this really matters for the Dollar.
Trump has revived the idea of bringing Greenland under US control and, notably, refused to rule out the use of military force. The response from Europe was swift. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, both pushed back firmly, stressing that Greenland’s future is for its people to decide. The island remains an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
Strategically, Greenland’s appeal is not hard to see. Its location is critical, and it is thought to be rich in minerals, oil and natural gas. That said, the economic story is far from straightforward. Oil and gas extraction are banned on environmental grounds, while mining projects have been slowed by regulation and opposition from indigenous communities, meaning any payoff would likely be distant and uncertain at best.
In terms of options, the Trump camp has reportedly floated everything from an outright purchase to a Compact of Free Association, similar to arrangements the US has with some Pacific island states. A military seizure, however, would be a different order of magnitude altogether, an unprecedented move against a close ally that would send shockwaves through NATO and further strain already fragile US–European relations.
For the Greenback, the market impact looks limited for now. Investors are likely to treat the Greenland talk as political noise rather than a genuine shift in policy. Unless it snowballs into a broader diplomatic or trade dispute with Europe or materially alters US fiscal or defence spending plans, the buck’s response should remain muted, with rates, growth and overall risk sentiment still doing the heavy lifting.
What’s in store for the US Dollar
Next week is shaping up to be a particularly interesting one, both on the data front and in terms of Fed speak.
The main focus will be the US CPI inflation release, but investors will be just as attentive to what policymakers say about how those numbers could influence the Fed’s thinking ahead of its next meeting in late January.
Technical landscape
Since bottoming out near 97.70 on December 24, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has embarked on a solid recovery that has not only reclaimed the 99.00 barrier but also left behind its significant 200-day SMA around 98.80.
This latter development paves the way for a potential return to the November 2025 peak at 100.39 (November 21). Once cleared, the index could then attempt a move toward the May 2025 ceiling at 101.97 (May 12).
On the flip side, there is immediate contention on the December floor at 97.74 (December 24). If bears push harder, the DXY could slip back to the 2025 bottom at 96.21 (September 17). The loss of this level could expose the February 2022 valley at 95.13 (February 4), seconded by the 2022 base at 94.62 (January 14).
Momentum signals have strengthened decently: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 62 mark, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 21 suggests quite a firm trend.
Bottom line
The US Dollar has found a second wind over the past few days, with momentum clearly swinging back in its favour, at least for now.
Part of that support is coming from a handful of Fed officials who are sticking to a hawkish line, helping to steady the Greenback in the near term.
Policymakers seem especially focused on the labour market at the moment, watching closely for any signs of weakness. But inflation hasn’t gone away. Price pressures are still running hotter than the Fed would like, and if they prove stubborn, officials may be forced to pivot back towards fighting inflation sooner than markets expect.
That would point to a more cautious Fed and a firmer Greenback, regardless of the political backdrop.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
- The US Dollar closed its second consecutive week of gains.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls came in below estimates in December.
- Markets’ attention now shifts to upcoming US CPI data and Fedspeak.
The week that was
And we’re off!
Another positive week for the US Dollar (USD) saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) extend a promising start to the new trading year, managing to at least scare away the spectre of being one of the worst-performing currencies during the last year.
In addition to the ongoing strong recovery, the index managed to clear its critical 200-day SMA around 98.85 on Friday, a harbinger of potential extra advances in the relatively short-term horizon.
Adding to the currency's challenges, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have maintained a divided stance on the monetary policy outlook, particularly regarding the pace and extent of rate cuts, which has left investors cautious ahead of the upcoming release of US inflation figures tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 13.
The weekly move higher in the Greenback was only accompanied by an equally firm recovery in US 2-year yields, while the belly and the long end of the curve edged lower in that period.
Consensus around the FOMC remains absent
Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials reflect a growing focus on balancing cooling inflation against emerging labour-market risks, with views diverging on how restrictive policy remains and how quickly rates should be adjusted.
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) said inflation is gradually easing but warned that tariff-related pressures could prove persistent, even as the unemployment rate risks rising from current levels, a sign that labour-market weakness could surface before inflation is fully tamed.
Tom Barkin (Richmond) stressed the need for “finely tuned” policy decisions, noting that while inflation has fallen, it remains above target, and unemployment, though historically low, has begun to edge higher. He added that interest rates are now close to neutral.
By contrast, Stephen Miran (FOMC Governor) argued policy is clearly restrictive and called for aggressive rate cuts this year, suggesting more than 100 basis points of easing may be needed to support growth.
So far, implied rates point to just over 53 basis points of easing by year-end and around a 95% chance of an on-hold decision at the January 28 gathering.
The US labour market keeps cooling…or not?
The Greenback found in the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) another excuse to extend its robust recovery. Indeed, in December, the US economy added just 50K jobs, a tad below consensus, while the Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage inflation, ticked higher to an annualised 3.8%, and the Unemployment Rate challenged analysts’ opinions after receding to 4.4%.
All in all, a steady cooling of the labour market appears bumpy, to say the least, removing fuel from those who expect job creation to stall somewhat and the jobless rate to tick (dramatically?) lower in order to reignite the thirst for lower rates.
Now, about inflation…
Political noise unlikely to weigh on the buck
After news out of Venezuela over New Year’s Eve, markets have once again found themselves digesting geopolitical headlines, this time sparked by renewed comments from Donald Trump about the US potentially “acquiring” Greenland. The remarks have raised fresh questions about US strategic intentions, relations with Europe, and whether any of this really matters for the Dollar.
Trump has revived the idea of bringing Greenland under US control and, notably, refused to rule out the use of military force. The response from Europe was swift. Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, both pushed back firmly, stressing that Greenland’s future is for its people to decide. The island remains an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.
Strategically, Greenland’s appeal is not hard to see. Its location is critical, and it is thought to be rich in minerals, oil and natural gas. That said, the economic story is far from straightforward. Oil and gas extraction are banned on environmental grounds, while mining projects have been slowed by regulation and opposition from indigenous communities, meaning any payoff would likely be distant and uncertain at best.
In terms of options, the Trump camp has reportedly floated everything from an outright purchase to a Compact of Free Association, similar to arrangements the US has with some Pacific island states. A military seizure, however, would be a different order of magnitude altogether, an unprecedented move against a close ally that would send shockwaves through NATO and further strain already fragile US–European relations.
For the Greenback, the market impact looks limited for now. Investors are likely to treat the Greenland talk as political noise rather than a genuine shift in policy. Unless it snowballs into a broader diplomatic or trade dispute with Europe or materially alters US fiscal or defence spending plans, the buck’s response should remain muted, with rates, growth and overall risk sentiment still doing the heavy lifting.
What’s in store for the US Dollar
Next week is shaping up to be a particularly interesting one, both on the data front and in terms of Fed speak.
The main focus will be the US CPI inflation release, but investors will be just as attentive to what policymakers say about how those numbers could influence the Fed’s thinking ahead of its next meeting in late January.
Technical landscape
Since bottoming out near 97.70 on December 24, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has embarked on a solid recovery that has not only reclaimed the 99.00 barrier but also left behind its significant 200-day SMA around 98.80.
This latter development paves the way for a potential return to the November 2025 peak at 100.39 (November 21). Once cleared, the index could then attempt a move toward the May 2025 ceiling at 101.97 (May 12).
On the flip side, there is immediate contention on the December floor at 97.74 (December 24). If bears push harder, the DXY could slip back to the 2025 bottom at 96.21 (September 17). The loss of this level could expose the February 2022 valley at 95.13 (February 4), seconded by the 2022 base at 94.62 (January 14).
Momentum signals have strengthened decently: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 62 mark, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 21 suggests quite a firm trend.
Bottom line
The US Dollar has found a second wind over the past few days, with momentum clearly swinging back in its favour, at least for now.
Part of that support is coming from a handful of Fed officials who are sticking to a hawkish line, helping to steady the Greenback in the near term.
Policymakers seem especially focused on the labour market at the moment, watching closely for any signs of weakness. But inflation hasn’t gone away. Price pressures are still running hotter than the Fed would like, and if they prove stubborn, officials may be forced to pivot back towards fighting inflation sooner than markets expect.
That would point to a more cautious Fed and a firmer Greenback, regardless of the political backdrop.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
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