EUR/USD analysis: holding on to gains, downside limited
|EUR/USD Current price: 1.1869
- Busy calendar on Friday but trading may remain choppy ahead of year-end holidays.
- US Q3 GDP revised slightly lower, growth anyway solid.
The EUR/USD pair struggled for direction this Thursday, as thin pre-holiday trading begun. Action around the pair was choppy, mostly led by stocks' behavior during the first half of the day, amid the absence of EU data. The American dollar gathered limited momentum at the beginning of the US session, but soft US macroeconomic figures limited the advance, alongside with a rally in commodity-related currencies that soared alongside with Canadian inflation. US final Q3 GDP revision resulted at 3.2%, slightly below the previous estimate of 3.3%, while Personal Consumption Expenditures for the quarter also suffered downward revisions. Seasonally adjusted weekly unemployment claims, for the week ending December 16, increased by 20,000 from the previous week level, reaching 245K, the highest in five weeks. On a positive note, the Chicago Fed National Activity index for November, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey for December beat expectations, indicating solid economic growth.
This Friday, attention will focus on German GFK Consumer Confidence survey for January, while the US will release personal income and spending figures for November, which include Fed's favorite inflation measure, the PCE price index, alongside with Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and the Michigan sentiment index. Currencies, however, may see limited reactions ahead of the year-end holidays.
Technically, the pair has met buying interest on a dip toward the 61.8% retracement of its December's decline after breaking above it on Wednesday. In the 4 hours chart, the price holds above a bullish 20 SMA that extended its advance above the 100 and 200 SMAs, while technical indicators continue consolidating within positive territory, aiming to regain the upside but below previous weekly highs, all of which leans the scale towards the upside, although a break above 1.1900 is now required to confirm additional gains ahead.
Support levels: 1.1860 1.1830 1.1800
Resistance levels: 1.1900 1.1940 1.1975
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