Analysis

Dollar gives up post-NFP gains after Fed J. Powell's dovish comments

The greenback went through a hectic session on Friday. Although dollar remained under pressure in Asia and Europea morning, usd regained traction at New York open after release of blockbuster U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, however, the greenback erased its intra-day gains and ended broadly lower against majority of its peers, except for safe-haven yen after Fed Chairman J. Powell's dovish comments.  
  
U.S. employers hired the most workers in 10 months in December while boosting wages, which could help to allay a recent upsurge in fears about the economy's health that has roiled financial markets.   
  
Nonf-arm payrolls increased by 312,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since February, as employment at construction sites snapped back after being restrained by unseasonably cold temperatures in November. There were also broad gains in hiring last month.   
  
Reuters reported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday moved to mollify financial markets concerned about a U.S. economic slowdown, saying that while momentum is solid, the U.S. central bank will be sensitive to the downside risks the market is pricing in.   
  
"We will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves," Powell told the American Economic Association, adding that the Fed is not on a preset path of rate hikes and suggesting that it could pause on its policy tightening as it did in 2016. "We are always prepared to shift the stance of policy and to shift it significantly" if needed.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose from 107.52 at Asian open to 108.45 after verbal warning by MOF official and despite retreating to 107.83 at European, price found renewed buying and rallied to session highs at 108.59 due to robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls data before retreating to 108.08 on Fed's Powell's dovish comments.  
  
Reuters reported a top Japanese finance ministry official on Friday said the government would respond to wild swings in currency markets if needed, in comments analysts say were aimed at talking down the yen after its surged to a nine-month high this week.   
  
The single currency went through a volatile session. Although euro traded narrowly in Asia and dipped to 1.1384, price rose in tandem with sterling to +session highs at 1.1420 (Reuters) in European morning before tumbling to intra-day low at 1.1346 in New York morning on upbeat NFP data, however, the pair erased its losses and rebounded strongly to 1.1418 after Powell's comments.  
  
The British pound went through a roller-coaster ride. Cable found renewed buying at 1.2616 at Asian open and rallied to 1.2695 in Europe on cross-buying in sterling as well as better than forecasts UK services PMI before falling to 1.2617 in New York morning on much better than expected NFP data. However, the pair rallied to session highs at 1.2744 near New York midday following dovish comments from Fed's Chairman Powell.  
  
Reuters reported Friday's IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly more than forecast by economists polled by Reuters, to 51.2 in December from 50.4 in November.   
  
In other news, Reuters reported the Irish government is intensifying preparations for the possibility that Britain crashes out of the European Union without an exit deal even though it expects agreement in the coming weeks, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Friday.   
  
"I still expect that we will have a deal in the next few weeks, but it is only prudent of course that as every day passes that we intensify preparations for no deal and that is very much what Ireland is doing," Varadkar told journalists in Germany where he is attending a meeting of the Christian Social Union (CSU) party.   
  
On the data front, Reuters reported U.S. average hourly earnings rose 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, in December after gaining 0.2 percent in November. That lifted the annual increase in wages to 3.2 percent, matching October's gain, from 3.1 percent in November.   
  
The unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent from a near 49-year low of 3.7 percent in November as a strong labor market lured some jobless Americans from the sidelines.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
Australia AIG manufacturing index, Japan Markit services PMI, Germany industrial orders, retail sales, EU Sentix index, retail sales, Canada Ivey PMI, and U.S. building permits, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, new home sales, construction spending on Monday.  
  
Australia ANZ job ads, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan consumer confidence, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment., consumer confidence, U.S. trade balance, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports on Tuesday.  
  
Australia AIG services index, building permits, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Swiss CPI, France consumer confidence, Italy unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate, UK NIESR GDP estimate, U.S. MBA mortgage application, FOMC minutes, and Canada housing starts, BoC interest rate decision on Wednesday.  
  
UK BRC retails sales, RICS housing survey, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB buisness confidence, China PPI, CPI, Japan coincident index, leading indicator, France industrial output, Italy retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada building permits, new housing price index on Thursday.  
  
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco Watchers current, Eco Watchers outlook, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance, trade balance non-EU, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings on Friday.  
  

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