When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?
|Amid pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, AUD/USD traders will keep an eye over the Aussie jobs report. Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for publishing October month employment data at 00:30 GMT on Thursday. Downbeat unemployment in September particularly gained market’s attention as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) observes it closely for future rate moves.
Market consensus favors Employment Change to improve to 15.0K from 14.7K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely returning to 5.3% from 5.2% prior. Also, no change is anticipated in 66.1% Participation Rate.
Westpac also expects a downbeat jobs report as their analysts say,
The dip in Australia’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in Aug to 5.2% in Sep had a big impact on markets, A$ bouncing and pricing for an RBA Nov rate cut sliding. The unemployment rate should remain the most sensitive number for markets in the Oct labor force survey (11:30 m Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK). The median forecast is 5.2% but Westpac looks for it to round up to 5.3%, with total employment +17k (median +15k). The participation rate in Sep dipped 0.1ppt from its record high but remains tough to predict month to month so there is plenty of scope for a surprise.
TD Securities, on the other hand, expect no fireworks from the data,
There were no material surprises in the Sep employment report. For Oct Employment we pencil in a 26k gain, 66.2% part rate and 5.2% unemployment rate, which should keep the RBA on the sidelines in Dec.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
RBA’s recent downgrade of growth forecast and sustained emphasis on the jobs report for the future decisions indicates that today’s data release will be the key to anticipate a rate cut by the Aussie central bank in early 2020, which is largely anticipated. While no major surprises are expected, despite the Unemployment rate returning to 5.3%, investors could cheer any upbeat readings to recover the recent losses.
Technically, the Aussie pair struggles to find the directions after the recent pullback from 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which in turn could push the quote towards 0.6855 and 200-day EMA level around 0.6940. However, a downside break below the 50-day EMA level, 0.6833 now, could recall 0.6800 to the chart.
Key Notes
AUD/USD bounces off 50-day EMA ahead of Aussie jobs report, China’s data dump
AUD/USD Forecast: Nearing 0.6800 ahead of employment data
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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