The Watch List: Gold, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR crosses and many more

 

• The open is set for a steady one considering there have been little in the way of disruptive weekend news. 
• This week's watchlist has gold correcting, yen on the backfoot, CNH firming and AUD overstretched, EUR at resistance with a firmer greenback. 
• Meanwhile, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, USD/CNH, EUR/JPY and USD/CHF are already ripening or in actual progress. 

The following is an analysis of 28 pairs of majors crosses which have shown promising prospects for the open and week ahead via a combination of various strategies, from both a swing trading and day trading perspective. 

AUD/JPY, live day-trade

Update: Target was achieved 

The following analysis resulted in the target being achieved as follows: AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls in charge from the get-go, bears look to weekly target

Prior analysis was as follows:

The price has already bolted by the time of publishing, but the trade is a high-risk set-up in any case. 

The price did not retrace to a 38.2% Fibo of the entire bullish trend. Therefore, there is a high probability that there needs to be more of a correction before much higher-highs.

Nevertheless, the structure is bullish and the trade can be taken at a reduced risk from a 15-min perspective for a 1:2 risk to reward as follows.

USD/CHF, swing trade, set-up ripening

The market is bid in the open this week and has already crossed the resistance which is now turning support on the 4-hour chart.

A buy limit at the structure offers1:3 risk to reward set up with a stop loss placed below a 78.6% Fibo of the bullish impulse. 

Gold, swing analysis

Gold has been a well-documented analysis in prior days which recently concluded having met the $1,765 weekly target as follows:

The weekly outlook was illustrated in the above chart from the original analysis done on 9. Feb: Gold Price Analysis: Bears to target a run to weekly support at $1,765

Concluding article: Gold Price Analysis: Target achieved and fresh bear-cycle lows for 2021

Live swing trading analysis for the Asia Monday open, 22.02.2021: The Chart of the Week: Gold prices meet critical demand area

USD/JPY, swing trade

USD/JPY has corrected to the daily 10 EMA and the vicinity of prior resistance structure where the weekly 10 and 20 EMAs are converging bullishly. 

This gives rise to the prospects of a fresh daily bullish impulse for which can be set up from a 4-hour chart and swing trading perspective.

However, there is some work to do yet for the 4-hour perspective to be bullish prior to entry.

Ideally, the price needs to break the overhead resistance and on a restest of the moving averages and structure, a buy limit entry can target an upwards extension of the broader bullish trend. 

AUD/USD, swing analysis

AUD/USD has formed a weekly W-formation for which a retracement to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci of the bullish impulse would be expected on the way to the neckline of the formation. 

From here, the bears can monitor for 4-hour bearish conditions, with MACD needing to get below the zero line. 

USD/CNH, day trade

Further to the prior analysis, USD/CNH Price Analysis: Upside extension running out of steam, where the upside was meeting a strong level of resistance, the focus remains on the downside.

USD/CNH bears are looking for a return to the mean of the daily bullish impulse. 

From an hourly perspective, the trade can be set up as follows on a break of structure and retest as resistance for a 1:3 risk to reward short:

The price needs to beak the 21-MA and MACD needs to cross below zero. 

EUR/CHF, day trading

However, the hourly chart has a lot of work to do before an optimal entry can be established at a bearish structure. 

NZD/CHF, day trading

The price has formed a W-formation and would now be expected to retrace to a 38.2% Fibo confluence with prior highs.

However, the hourly chart remains in a bullish territory but can be monitored for bearish structure for an optimal entry point to short. 

EUR/JPY, swing trading

There is a bullish bias on the daily chart and the 4-hour chart is ripening for a buy limit entry. 

The cross needs to break the immediate resistance and subsequently retest the structure as support from where bulls can long the pair for a 1:3 risk to reward set up with a stop below structure targeting the 128.80s. 

NZD/JPY, day trade

The hourly chart is bullish and the price has corrected a significant stretch of the bullish impulse. 

This gives rise to a continuation trade and from a 15-mn time frame, bulls can monitor for a break and retest of the resistance structure and bullish technical conditions. 

A buy limit placed at the structure will enable bulls to buy into the trend at a discount and with a stop loss below the structure, or the prior lows, the position will be protected targeting a 1: 3 risk to reward opportunity. 

EUR/GBP, day trade

From a daily perspective, the price is overstretched to the downside so there is scope for a 38.2% Fibo retracement. 

The hourly chart will offer bullish conditions on a break of current resistance and a restest will open prospects of support for a buy limit entry to target a 1:2.5 risk to reward setup.  

However, ideally, MACD needs to turn positive to confirm the bullish environment. 

Additional day trading set-ups

GBP/AUD Price Analysis: Monitoring for bullish structure to target 38.2% Fibo

NZD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls testing the bear's commitments