Forex Today: Markets cling to cautious stance despite Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
|Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 17:
Financial markets adopt a cautios stance on Friday as investors refrain from betting on risky assets, while waiting for clarity on the next round of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran. The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases, allowing investors to remain focused on geopolitics and comments from central bank policymakers.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.03% | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.15% | -0.12% | 0.06% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.15% | 0.02% | -0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.06% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.22% | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.17% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.17% | -0.09% | -0.06% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Later in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that Israel has not agreed to withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Israeli military announced that the troops will remain in a 10-km deep security zone in Southern Lebanon and warned residents not to return to the region.
Meanwhile, NBC News reported that a senior Iranian official explained that a permanent ceasefire deal will depend on "adherence to the conditions of Iran and the resistance." Later in the day, the UK and France will chair a meeting on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Representatives from around 40 countires are expected to join the discussions. There are also reports suggesting that the second round of US-Iran talks could happen this weekend.
After closing marginally higher on Thursday, the US Dollar Index holds steady above 98.00 in the European morning on Friday, while US stock index futures trade mixed.
EUR/USD moves sideways near 1.1780 early Friday after losing about 0.15% on Thursday. Later in the session, Eurostat will release February Trade Balance data.
GBP/USD fell 0.25% on Thursday and closed the second consecutive day in negative territory. The pair continues to edge lower and trades slightly above 1.3500 to start the European session on Friday.
USD/JPY fell to a fresh weekly low below 158.30 on Thursday but reversed its direction to close marginally higher. The pair holds its ground and trades comfortably above 159.00 on Friday.
Gold continues to move sideways at around $4,800 after closing virtually unchanged on Thursday.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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