EUR/USD rebound fades below 1.0790 previous support on downbeat German Factory Orders, EU/US data eyed

• EUR/USD struggles to extend corrective bounce off three-month low after downbeat German data.
• German Factory Orders dropped the most since early 2020s with -11.7% YoY figures.
• Eurozone recession fears contrast with US soft landing chatters to underpin bearish bias about the Euro pair.
• Eurozone Retail Sales for July, US ISM Services PMI for August eyed for clear directions.

 

EUR/USD retreats from intraday high to 1.0730 while fading the corrective bounce off the lowest level in three months after downbeat German data published early Wednesday. In doing so, the Euro pair struggles to cheer the US Dollar’s pullback amid recession woes surrounding the Old Continent versus the hopes of witnessing a soft landing for the US. Even so, the cautious mood ahead of the Eurozone Retail Sales for July and the US ISM Services PMI for August prods the pair sellers of late.

German Factory Orders slumped the most since April 2020 with -11.7% YoY figures compared to -4.0% expected and upwardly revised prior numbers of 7.6%. That said, the monthly statistics also declined heavily with the -10.5% mark versus 3.3% prior (revised from 3.0%).

On the same line could be the downbeat prints of the previous day’s Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the economic fears cited in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly survey of consumer expectations for inflation.

It should be noted that the upbeat details of the US Factory Orders and comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials defend the US Dollar bulls even as a retreat in the yields allows the Greenback buyers to take a breather. On Tuesday, the US Factory Orders for July dropped to the lowest since mid-2020 while posting -2.1% MoM figures versus -0.1% expectations and 2.3% previous growth. However, the orders excluding transport rose 0.8% MoM, Shipments of goods stayed firmer and inventories marked the first increase in three months. That said, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller’s defense of hawkish monetary policy during a CNBC interview and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester’s rejection of rate cuts favor the US Dollar bulls.

Elsewhere, concerns about more stimulus for China’s real estate sector, per the Chinese media, seem to have fueled the property shares, especially backed by Country Garden’s avoidance of default. The same appears as the key catalyst challenging the market’s previous risk-off mood and putting a floor under the EUR/USD price.

Against this backdrop, stock futures in the US and Europe print mild losses while tracing the Wall Street benchmarks whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws at the highest level since March 15, dicey near 104.80 at the latest.

Moving on, more details of the US soft landing and the Eurozone recession will be eyed for clear directions.

Technical analysis

A daily closing below the ascending support line stretched from March, now immediate resistance near 1.0790, directs the EUR/USD bears toward June’s low of 1.0635.