AUD/USD is testing the bear's commitments at a fundamental turning point
|- Bears tested on upside fundamental turning pint.
- Technically, still seesawing around a flat 20 SMA and below bearish 100 SMA.
AUD/USD has been testing the bear's commitments in this phase of consolidation on a number of macro fundamentals which have given rise to a second through for long Aussie, and no doubt making the increase in speculative and mone manager shorts positioning nervous.
A case for the upside
The factors to consider are, most importantly, that the RBA minutes signalled a more patient whereby markets have started to factor out a rate cut as soon as September. Also, trade tension escalation has abated ahead of this weekend’s G-7 Summit, or, markets have simply chosen to ignore Trump's shooting from the hit as he just isn't consistent in his words nor actions.
Then, when looking to sentiment in general, banks have moved to an easing bias and there are now talks of fiscal stimulus as well as the likelihood of Central Bank support. Domestically, Australian housing and labour data has been firmer than markets expected and should there be an upside squeeze, then the shorter positions are likely to contribute to a series of stops being triggered through the 0.6830s
AUD/USD levels
However, from a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, the Chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the AUD/USD pair is technically neutral-to-bearish according to the 4 hours chart:
"...Still seesawing around a flat 20 SMA and below bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart lack directional strength around their midlines. The pair has been ranging pretty much since the month started, with sellers re-surging on attempts to surpass the 0.6800 level. A couple of relevant highs are located in the 0.6820 area, where, in the daily chart, the pair has a firmly bearish 20 DMA."
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