What to Worry about Today: The stock market
|Outlook:
The dollar still has a strong tailwind in the form of the Fed, which will keep rates the same today and not present a press conference. The FOMC will issue a statement and the nitpickers will examine every word for divergence from previous statements, a weak limb to sit upon.
As far as anyone can tell, the Fed is not discouraged in the least from the plan to raise rates in December, when we do get a press conference. It’s not that far away, and in-between we have the Thanksgiving holiday and then the Christmas nonsense. We say nonsense not to denigrate the holiday but because the retail sector goes nuts—CVS drugstores already have Santa figures at the front door—and the consumers buy into it lock, stock and barrel. Pretty soon we will be focusing on Black Friday retail sales and the like. We have no reason to imagine this holiday season will not be a stunning display of American materialism.
Until Trump pulls the next stunt, all will be well in the US economy, stock market and dollar. If Brexit goes wrong and if Italy and the EC ramp up the rhetoric, those are just reasons to get back into the dollar big-time. Just don’t forget—a currency war is coming. Ironically, at the beginning it will strengthen the dollar. It’s hard to bet against Trump when asset prices are bubbly.
Fun Tidbit: No comment necessary: “Nevada voters elected a Republican to the State Assembly who just weeks ago was found dead in a brothel he owned.”
This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.
To get a free trial, please write to ber@rts-forex.com and you will be added to the mailing list..
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.