What to Worry about Today: The stock market

Outlook:

The dollar still has a strong tailwind in the form of the Fed, which will keep rates the same today and not present a press conference.  The FOMC will issue a statement and the nitpickers will examine every word for divergence from previous statements, a weak limb to sit upon.

As far as anyone can tell, the Fed is not discouraged in the least from the plan to raise rates in December, when we do get a press conference. It’s not that far away, and in-between we have the Thanksgiving holiday and then the Christmas nonsense. We say nonsense not to denigrate the holiday but because the retail sector goes nuts—CVS drugstores already have Santa figures at the front door—and the consumers buy into it lock, stock and barrel. Pretty soon we will be focusing on Black Friday retail sales and the like. We have no reason to imagine this holiday season will not be a stunning display of American materialism.

Until Trump pulls the next stunt, all will be well in the US economy, stock market and dollar. If Brexit goes wrong and if Italy and the EC ramp up the rhetoric, those are just reasons to get back into the dollar big-time. Just don’t forget—a currency war is coming. Ironically, at the beginning it will strengthen the dollar. It’s hard to bet against Trump when asset prices are bubbly.

Fun Tidbit: No comment necessary: “Nevada voters elected a Republican to the State Assembly who just weeks ago was found dead in a brothel he owned.”

 


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