Weekly column: Fed green light layoffs soar and stocks hit record highs

Review

A key inflation measure was lower than expected in September, the Commerce Department said Friday in a report delayed by the government shutdown that gives a further green light for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

— Jeff Cox, “Core Inflation Rate Watched By Fed Hit 2.8%, Delayed September Data Shows, Lower Than Expected,” CNBC, December 5, 2025.

Layoffs announced by employers declined on a monthly basis in November but still pushed the 2025 total to the highest level since the wave of pandemic-induced layoffs in 2020, new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows.

— Eric Revell, “U.S. Layoffs Soar Past 1.1M In 2025, Highest Level Since the Pandemic,” Fox Business, December 4, 2025.

It was a very strong week for U.S. stocks, which saw the tech sector reassert leadership and the Nasdaq outperform again to the upside. We even saw the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average notch their highest weekly close in history. It sure looks like Santa Claus is about to be coming to town for U.S. equities this year.

European markets were mixed last week, with the FTSE pulling back, while the Amsterdam AEX, Zurich SMI, and German DAX saw solid bids. As 2025 nears its end, Europe is capping off one of its greatest annual performance runs in years. Time will tell whether it remains the hottest regional market in the world in 2026.

Over in Asia and Oceania, the Nikkei saw a modest bid and looks to have begun yet another bullish cycle. The Australian All-Ordinaries was marginally lower, while the Shanghai Composite was marginally higher. The Hang Seng Index also saw a nice rally.

Precious metals finished mixed, with Silver rallying to yet another new all-time high, while Gold remains in consolidation mode. The concern here is that Gold hasn’t made a new all-time high since October, but let’s see if it can rediscover its bull trend next week.

Cryptocurrencies are still struggling to emerge from their recent bear trends. We didn’t see new lows in either Bitcoin or Ethereum last week, but they finished lower, with Ethereum and Bitcoin both down (in futures). Perhaps the greater observation is that Ethereum is starting to outperform Bitcoin, which could be setting the stage for the future of crypto and Wall Street.

Commodity markets saw mixed price action too, with Crude Oil closing up on the week. However, grains saw some sell-side action, especially beans. It may take until the Saturn-Neptune conjunction next year for grains to find a clean new uptrend.

Short-term geocosmics

After a brief hiatus when it comes to geocosmic signatures, there’s a notable uptick in activity coming this week. It starts with a tough square between Mars and Saturn—this is worth keeping an eye on with respect to the ongoing negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine.

The most important signature to watch this week, however, is Neptune going stationary direct on Wednesday, December 10. The timing of this signature couldn’t be more auspicious, as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points, or a quarter percent.

This time around, it may not be the rate cut that moves markets the most, but what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say. Neptune changing direction emphasizes its themes on that day. Mercury will rule the day, however, as the Moon will be in Virgo. There’s also an opposition between Mercury and Uranus that day, so surprise announcements or a shocking admission are a real possibility.

The current market environment shares numerous similarities with the 1990s – new technologies that are revolutionizing the world, accommodative central banks, economic growth, and even some military conflicts.

But one of the most infamous quotes of the 1990s in financial markets came from former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, who uttered the phrase “irrational exuberance,” which is a very Neptunian phrase.

Could Jerome Powell, who has been rather hawkish over the past year or so, suddenly say something that comes off as dovish? It’s possible with this geocosmic backdrop, but I’m not going to go so far as to say that he’s about to have his Neptunian Greenspan moment, especially because he’s only going to be the Fed chair for another six months or so. Either way, it looks like Kevin Hasset is going to be the next Fed chair, and I would look for him and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to collaborate closely with one another, and effectively end the illusion (here’s Neptune again) of Fed independence.

Longer-term thoughts (and opinion)

“U.S. retailers leaned heavily on discounts this holiday season to drive online demand. Competitive and persistent deals throughout Cyber Week pushed consumers to shop earlier, creating an environment where Black Friday now challenges the dominance of Cyber Monday,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “Shoppers have also become increasingly savvy in finding the best deals and locating the right products, embracing generative AI-powered chat services and browser tools for the second season in a row.”

—”Cyber Monday Hits Record $14.25 Billion in Online Spending with Over $1 Billion Driven by Buy Now Pay Later,” Adobe Analytics, December 2025.

https://news.adobe.com/news/2025/12/adobe-cyber-monday-hits-record

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

It’s no surprise that the holiday shopping season corresponds with Sagittarius season. Retailers do their best to paint the picture that consumers are getting even bigger deals on items in order to entice them to buy more. This type of exaggeration, coupled with the optimism and cheer of the holidays, is a great representation of Sagittarius season.

Despite record Black Friday sales, the reality on the ground for most American consumers is very different. The top 10% of income-earning households now account for half of the spending that takes place in the United States. This is especially significant considering that 70% of the U.S. economy is based on consumption.

It basically means that as long as these households continue to earn (and spend), it props up an illusion that the everyday economy is doing fine. Keep in mind that these are the very households that own the majority of equities, too. So, as long as the “top 10% economy” continues to hold up, we should expect economic data to keep showing growth.

This brings me to my next point – is there any economic reprieve for the other 90%? From a geocosmic standpoint, there very well may be – at least for a short period of time. But we must also prepare for a “new” type of consumer, too.

The geocosmic signatures being alluded to here unfold mostly in the middle of 2026. Jupiter moves into Leo on June 30, 2026, and then the central time band of Uranus trine Pluto begins on July 18, followed by a Jupiter-Neptune trine and Jupiter-Pluto opposition on July 20.

These aspects come after Saturn and Neptune begin to separate from their conjunction in February. The Saturn-Neptune conjunction has helped keep a lid on energy prices, and the potential for a downward drift in oil prices during the first half of 2026 is real. This means energy cost savings for consumers. But there’s also a refinancing boom looming too, as the Fed moves to lower rates again this upcoming week and into 2026. (As a quick side note, Powell’s term is up right around the time of those powerful signatures in summer 2026).

Simply put, the American consumer is being reloaded with more buying power going into 2026. “Buy now, pay later” schemes are more popular than ever, and credit cards are helping to keep the consumer spending like there’s no tomorrow.

Let’s also not forget that another round of stimulus checks is likely to be sent out in 2026, too. And then of course, there are the “Trump Accounts,” where all newborn children in the United States get $1,000 deposited into an investment account at birth. Billionaire Michael Dell also pledged to add an additional $250 to each account.

A few years ago, talks about Universal Basic Income (UBI) were popular. We’re not seeing it rolled out under the official title, but in practice, it seems to be making its way into the economy. In many ways, this reflects Pluto in Aquarius, where powerful individuals and tribes (companies) will seek to garner greater support, even through manipulative tactics, at the expense of national governments.

Now, back to the future evolution of the American consumer.

Think about the last time you watched anything on television. While a significant percentage of advertisements are for pharmaceuticals, there’s been a huge uptick in ads for gambling and sports betting in the more recent past.

Now, think about what Jupiter’s ingress into Leo in June of 2026 could mean for the consumer.

Leo is a sign that represents children (this ties into the Trump accounts and the Jupiter-Pluto opposition), fun, entertainment, speculation, and gambling. A large portion of the population already struggles to make ends meet, but that doesn’t mean they’ll stop spending entirely.

A shift towards less expensive ways of entertainment, but also ones that could lead to financial windfalls, is going to be increasingly popular. Everything is becoming gamified – elections, mundane events, wars, and even simple opinions themselves. Polymarket was just given the green light by the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) to resume operating in the U.S. as well.

To be clear—this isn’t an endorsement from me to go gambling—on the contrary. The odds aren’t anywhere near as good as they can be made to be in the world of trading. Plus, the fact that people feel the need to gamble to improve their station speaks volumes about the state of society and the economy, and about how socioeconomic mobility is becoming more difficult. Even so, these developments present a potentially unique sector theme for 2026, especially going into Jupiter’s transit of Leo.

We know where we are in the longer-term cycles, and we also know what types of market moves can occur near their end. It’s even eloquently explained by Publilius Syrus, from all the way back in the first century BC, when he stated, “Fortuna vitrea est: tum cum splendet, frangitur.” This translates to, “Fortune is made of glass: just when it shines brightest, it shatters.”

It’s important to know how to have fun, as Jupiter’s transit through Leo will remind the world, but it’s even more important to know when the party is slowing down, and it’s time to go home. The public may not like what that particular reminder looks like when the time comes.