USD/JPY: bearish case firm as long as below 109.65
|USD/JPY Current price: 109.47
- Japan Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest in almost three years in March.
- US and UK holidays keeping action around the FX board limited.
A slow start to the week helped the American dollar to recover modestly against most major rivals, with the USD/JPY advancing to 109.58, up from a daily low of 109.27. The UK and the US are celebrating different holidays that keep local banks closed, limiting volatility across financial boards. In Japan, BOJ's Kuroda spoke at a seminar, saying that the global economic outlook is highly uncertain, with large downside risk. The country released the final version of the March Leading Economic Index, which fell to 95.9, its lowest in almost three years. The Coincident Index for the same period came in at 99.4 vs. 97.1 in the previous month. Given the US holidays, there won't be macroeconomic releases coming from the country, neither activity in Wall Street.
The USD/JPY pair trades around 109.45, consolidating at the lower end of its latest range, technically bearish according to the 4 hours chart, as the pair keeps developing below its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating below the larger ones. Technical indicators in the mentioned timeframe stand near their recent lows and turning south, all of which reflects the absence of buying interest. The pair is developing below the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run at around 109.65, the immediate resistance. The bearish potential may ease on a break above the level, while the downward movement should resume if the 109.00 figure gives up.
Support levels: 109.00 108.65 108.30
Resistance levels: 109.65 109.90 110.20
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