Top Trade Setups in Forex - Who's up for Nonfarm Payroll?
|On Friday, the forex market is a bit muted as investors await the U.S. Nonfarm payroll during the New York session. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of Dollars against the basket of six major currencies, fell 0.2% and weighed on US Dollar prices.
The dollar remained unappealing throughout the market on Thursday due to mixed comments on the China-US trade deal. Despite the stronger than expected macroeconomic data from the US, Dollar failed to gain traction in the market.
The Trade Balance from the United States for October came in as -47.2B against the expectations of -48.7B and supported the US dollar on Thursday. The Jobless Claims from the US for this week dropped to 203K against the expectations of 215K and supported the US dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Factory Orders for October came in as expected 0.3%.
XAU/USD - Trading Gold on NFP Today
The safe-haven-metal prices failed to continue its recovery rally and traded mostly unchanged. As of writing, the precious metal gold is trading near the $1475/76 as the market seems cautious ahead of U.S. NFP data, and in the meantime, we may experience thin trading volume.
Trade doubt will likely be considered, and these may help to support the bullion's latest pullback. The greenback weakness is another reason that gets included in the list. The greenback is playing on the defensive track due to disappointing data indicating no significant improvement in the world's biggest economy. Consequently, it raises the anxiety regarding job reports and may push the policymakers towards conveying the economic doubt even if the market forecasts are quite upbeat.
Now on, the trade and political headlines will likely offer intermediate moves to the gold. The important attention will be on the US employment data for November, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. On the forecasted view, the NFP is expected to increase to 180K from 128K prior, whereas Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings could stay unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively.
XAU/USD - Daily Technical Levels
| Support | Pivot Point | Resistance |
| 1464.34 | 1473.12 | 1486.32 |
| 1451.14 | 1495.1 | |
| 1429.16 | 1517.08 |
Gold - XAUUSD- Daily Trade Sentiment
On Friday, the gold prices haven't moved much, as traders seem to feel hesitant ahead of the NFP report today. Gold placed a high of around 1,476 today, along with a low of 1,472. As you see, the trading range is minimal, but the chances of a breakout remain pretty high on NFP. Today, the bullish bias remains active, but in any case, the breakout of 1,471 can lead to gold prices towards 1,466.
USD/CAD - Loonie Hits Double Bottom Amid Weaker Dollar
The USD/CAD pair prices were closed at 1.31727 after placing a high of 1.32029 and low of 1.31583. Overall the trend for the USD/CAD pair remained Bearish that day.
The USD/CAD pair fell for 3rd consecutive day on Thursday and accumulated a decline of more than 100 pips. The couple moved in a downward trend but remained within the limit.
At 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from Canada showed growth of -1.1B against the expectations of -1.4B. The Richard Ivey School of Business released the Ivey PMI at 20:00 GMT and showed an increase of 60.0 from expected 49.3 and supported Canadian Dollar.
Stronger than expected macroeconomic data kept Canadian Dollar in demand and weighed on USD/CAD prices. Further pressure came from a rise in crude oil prices after a meeting between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) in Vienna.
The OPEC+ is expected to discuss the production cut of more than 400K barrels per day as the main agenda of the meeting. The ministers will meet on March 1, 2020, to review the agreed deal. The total OPEC+ cut is estimated as 1.7M barrels. Crude oil prices were already high after the latest inventory data from the United States and weaker US Dollar due to trade tensions.
Commodity-linked currency – Loonie gained traction on Friday, and the pair USD/CAD moved in a downward trend to place a low of 1.3170.
On Friday, the upcoming critical macroeconomic data from Canada include the Unemployment Rate and Employment change, which will affect the movement of USD/CAD profoundly.
USD/CAD- Daily Technical Levels
| Support | Pivot Point | Resistance |
| 1.3158 | 1.3175 | 1.3191 |
| 1.3141 | 1.3209 | |
| 1.3108 | 1.3242 |
USD/CAD- Daily Trade Sentiment
Recalling our previous forecast, the USD/CAD has traded in line with the forecast, testing 1.3160 targets. The USD/CAD may now find resistance around 1.3200, along with support around 1.3160.
Taking a look at the MACD and RSI, these are trading in the oversold region, suggesting chances of a bullish correction in the USD/CAD above 1.3160 level. In case, the Canadian unemployment rate fails to surprise the market and show weaker numbers, the USD/CAD will bounce off to target 1.3200 and 1.3220.
AUD/USD –Aussie to Complete Fibonacci Retracement
The AUD/USD pair prices were closed at 0.68309 after placing a high of 0.68547 and low of 0.68205. Overall the trend for AUD/USD pair remained Bearish that day.
The Retail Sales from Australia was released at 5:30 GMT and was dropped to 0.0% from the expectations of 0.3% to weigh on single currency Aussie. Besides, the Trade Balance figure form Australia also dropped to 4.50B from expected 6.50B, adding further pressure on the Aussie. The downside pressure, however, remained limited due to weakness in the US dollar.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of Dollar against the basket of six major currencies, fell 0.2% on Thursday and weighed on US Dollar prices. The Dollar remained unappealing throughout the market on Thursday due to mixed comments on the China-US trade deal.
Despite the stronger than expected macroeconomic data from the US, Dollar failed to gain traction in the market. At 18:30 GMT, the Trade Balance from the United States for October came in as -47.2B against the expectations of -48.7B and supported the US Dollar on Thursday. The Jobless Claims from the US for this week dropped to 203K against the expectations of 215K and supported the US Dollar.
The China-proxy Australian Dollar lost its demand after the increased uncertainty over the US- China trade deal. China has demanded tariffs removal as part of the phase-one agreement on Thursday and has ignored the negative comments related to delay of the deal by Trump.
Trump earlier this week said that deal could be delay until the 2020 elections, which will commence in November next year. This news raised the concerns of phase-one deal completion, which was under negotiations in previous weeks. If the phase-one deal is not secured till 15 December, the US has announced to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods.
However, on Thursday, US officials again said that phase-one trade talks were going very well just after the negative comments from Trump. These contrasted statements increased trade uncertainties and weighed on China-proxy Aussie.
AUD/USD - Technical Levels
| Support | Pivot Point | Resistance |
| 0.6819 | 0.6834 | 0.6846 |
| 0.6807 | 0.6861 | |
| 0.678 | 0.6888 |
AUD/USD - Daily Trade Sentiment
The AUD/USD has traded bullish after testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 0.6820. At the moment, the AUD/USD pair is trading just below the triple top resistance level of 0.6850.
A bullish breakout of 0.6850 level can extend buying until 0.6880. The MACD value still holds below 0, but it seems very near to show a bullish crossover. If this happens, the chances of a bullish trend will increase further today. Support can be found at 0.6840 today.
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